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"scope": "日期固定于2026-10-04所见正式网页。", "status": "editorial_assessment_pending_review", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "原文更正、独立复算或专家对所列前提与推断的审查。", "sources": [ "P08-S3", "P08-S4" ], "premises": [ { "id": "P08-P4", "label": "机构状态不是授奖：前提", "text": "日期固定于2026-10-04所见正式网页。", "preciseLocator": "Announcement penultimate substantive paragraph and final process paragraph; problem page status heading", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "P08-L4", "label": "机构状态不是授奖：边界", "text": "作者宣布、形式化提交、专家接受和机构正式决定是不同层级。", "preciseLocator": "Announcement penultimate substantive paragraph and final process paragraph; problem page status heading", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "P08-E4", "label": "机构状态不是授奖：原文依据", "text": "公告使用审慎语言，并未在所读页面宣布奖金授予。", "preciseLocator": "Announcement penultimate substantive paragraph and final process paragraph; problem page status heading", "fulltextUrl": 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fit eq.(1); Fig.7–8 captions and paragraphs immediately following", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "P05-E4", "label": "新增联合排序指示：原文依据", "text": "TAO/Daya Bay约束反应堆谱；Daya Bay选择质量差物理极小值，再引入NuFit长基线质量差约束。", "preciseLocator": "joint fit eq.(1); Fig.7–8 captions and paragraphs immediately following", "fulltextUrl": "https://arxiv.org/html/2609.37895v1", "sourceVersion": "arXiv:2609.37895v1" } ] }, { "id": "P05-C5", "label": "绝对尺度与排序各待推进", "text": "端点上限和正常排序联合偏好可以共存，但两者不唯一给出三个质量本征值，也不决定狄拉克／马约拉纳性质。", "scope": "这是编辑合成；未把宇宙学质量和上限混作端点结果。", "status": "editorial_assessment_pending_review", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "原文更正、独立复算或专家对所列前提与推断的审查。", "sources": [ "P05-S1", "P05-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "P05-P5", "label": "绝对尺度与排序各待推进：前提", "text": "这是编辑合成；未把宇宙学质量和上限混作端点结果。", "preciseLocator": "KATRIN Introduction effective-mass definitions pp.4–5; JUNO final summary and NMO statistical paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "P05-L5", "label": "绝对尺度与排序各待推进：边界", "text": "新JUNO结果更新旧首批论文的状态；高显著性排序与非零绝对质量仍需进一步证据。", "preciseLocator": "KATRIN Introduction effective-mass definitions pp.4–5; JUNO final summary and NMO statistical paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "P05-E5", "label": "绝对尺度与排序各待推进：原文依据", "text": "两个实验约束不同函数与参数，不能互换。", "preciseLocator": "KATRIN Introduction effective-mass definitions pp.4–5; JUNO final summary and NMO statistical paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2406.13516", "sourceVersion": "arXiv:2406.13516v1, 61-page manuscript including supplement" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "P05", "coverage_status": "specified_primary_passages_checked", "coverage_label": "指定原文已核", "coverage_note": "质量限值和JUNO联合排序指示的所列原文已读；不将联合、先验依赖证据称为单实验定论。", "chain_review_status": "scoped_claims_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "P05-C1", "P05-C2", "P05-C3", "P05-C4" ], "limitation_ids": [ "P05-L1", "P05-L2", "P05-L3", "P05-L4", "P05-L5" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "P12", "domain": "凝聚态物理与材料", "title": "非常规高温超导的机制与可预测设计", "known_core": [ "接受稿报告La1.57Sm1.43Ni2O7−δ在21.6 GPa、氦传压介质下出现96 K电阻转变onset；扩展图10明确该成分尚未达到零电阻。", "3单胞La2.85Pr0.15Ni2O7薄膜原稿以50–60 K线性背景偏离定义onset=45 K；BKT型拟合温度为9 K。", "同一薄膜v1中双线圈互感测量在8.5 K以下出现抗磁信号，与9 K的BKT型温标相近。", "ARPES稿在所测(La,Pr,Sm)3Ni2O7薄膜的布里渊区对角和边界方向见有限能隙，对角拟合约18 meV。", "ARPES稿报告约70 meV色散拐点及自能特征，并解释为电子—玻色子耦合；作者要求进一步实验判断它是否主导配对。", "Korolev与Talantsev认为原文超导体积分数估计有误，并认为有限磁矩不能唯一确定实际超导体积。", "Li等认为自洽退磁修正与均匀单晶证据支持原来的约62.1%估计，批评没有使其失效。" ], "frontier_question": "双层镍酸盐的配对对称性和主导相互作用是什么，模型能否预测不同压力、掺杂与应变下的可复现超导行为？", "current_status": "配对相位符号、主导相互作用与跨材料预测模型；接受稿与最终VoR主文的逐字版本核对。", "uncertainty_types": [ "机制识别", "材料可重复制备", "相与结构表征" ], "resolution_evidence": "独立样品中电输运、磁性及热力学证据互证；谱学与相敏感测量区分配对模型；模型对未用于拟合的新材料给出准确预测。", "limits": "96 K不是零电阻温度，亦无此温度的体积抗磁确证；同文另一成分La2SmNi2O7的92 K onset、73 K零阻及60 K以下抗磁须保持样品/压力区别。已读的是未编辑接受稿；最终VoR主文尚未逐字比对。 45K并非整片已形成零阻相干态；BKT拟合亦不是无条件证明。 与正式摘要8K的舍入口径不混用；互感并不识别微观配对胶水。 不是所有镍酸盐/所有费米面的全覆盖，也不测序参量的相位符号。 耦合存在不自动等于配对因果机制；尚未唯一识别玻色子种类。 高压接受稿的原始正文和所列方法已核对，最终VoR主文及arXiv版本错配仍未解决；本轮没有复算原始数据，跨体系模型预测仍需独立未拟合样品检验。", "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "P12-S1", "title": "Li et al.: Bulk superconductivity up to 96 K in pressurized nickelate single crystals, Extended Data", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09954-4?error=cookies_not_supported", "source_version": "Nature 649,871–878, VoR 2026-01-14; publicly accessible Extended Data Fig.10 caption", "date": "2026-01-14", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Extended Data Fig.10 caption panels a–i; particularly d,f,h,i; metadata" ], "not_reviewed": [ "paywalled main Methods/Results", "complete 96K-version supplementary evidence" ], "independence_group": "LI_NICKELATE_HIGH_PRESSURE_2501_14584" }, { "source_node_id": "P12-S2", "title": "Zhou et al.: Ambient-pressure superconductivity onset above 40 K in bilayer nickelate ultrathin films", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.16622", "source_version": "arXiv:2412.16622v1; 2024-12-21 author manuscript", "date": "2024-12-21", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "PDF pp.4–5 transport and mutual-inductance result", "PDF pp.15–16 Figs.1–2 captions" ], "not_reviewed": [], "independence_group": "ZHOU_BILAYER_FILM_2412_16622" }, { "source_node_id": "P12-S3", "title": "Shen et al.: Nodeless superconducting gap and electron-boson coupling in (La,Pr,Sm)3Ni2O7 films", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.17831", "source_version": "arXiv:2502.17831v2", "date": "2025-07-09", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "pp.2–3 Figs.1–3 related result paragraphs", "pp.3–4 Fig.4 and pairing-mechanism discussion" ], "not_reviewed": [], "independence_group": "SHEN_NICKELATE_ARPES_2502_17831" }, { "source_node_id": "P12-S4", "title": "Li et al.: Bulk superconductivity up to 96 K in pressurized nickelate single crystals, accepted Accelerated Article Preview", "url": "https://sharps.ac.cn/en/uploads/soft/20251204/2-251204105024242.pdf", "source_version": "Nature Accelerated Article Preview; accepted 2025-11-21; 35-page unedited accepted paper; cover publication date unresolved (xx xx xxxx)", "date": "2025-11-21", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "PDF p.1 cover: DOI, acceptance date, Accelerated Article Preview and unedited-version warning", "PDF pp.5–8: sample-composition context; Bulk superconductivity at 92 K; Tc increased to 96 K; Conclusion", "PDF pp.11–12: main figure legends, particularly Fig.3a–e", "PDF p.13 Methods, Single crystal growth; p.14 In-situ high-pressure resistivity and DC magnetic susceptibility measurements", "PDF p.15 Calculation of superconducting volume fraction and Data availability", "PDF p.18 Extended Data Fig.10 caption a–i, especially h–i and final no-zero-resistivity sentence", "PDF p.7 rendered and visually inspected to verify onset superscript, composition, pressure and helium-PTM statement" ], "not_reviewed": [ "final VoR full main text and complete line-by-line accepted-to-VoR reconciliation", "independent reanalysis of raw transport/magnetization data", "complete supplementary datasets" ], "independence_group": "LI_NICKELATE_HIGH_PRESSURE_2501_14584" }, { "source_node_id": "P12-V05-S1", "title": "96K论文最终链接补充信息", "url": "https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-025-09954-4/MediaObjects/41586_2025_9954_MOESM1_ESM.pdf", "source_version": "Nature publisher-linked SI; six-page file read2026-10-04", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "pp.1–6 all text/captions; p.3 visual" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw diffraction data", "all plot pixels", "final main VoR" ], "independence_group": "LI_NICKELATE_HIGH_PRESSURE_2501_14584" }, { "source_node_id": "P12-V05-S2", "title": "Korolev与Talantsev的体积分数批评", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.23240", "source_version": "arXiv2602.23240v1;2026-02-26; preprint", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "pp.1–5 argument/Eqs1–12; references scanned" ], "not_reviewed": [ "independent data reanalysis", "expert adjudication" ], "independence_group": "KOROLEV_TALANTSEV_METHOD_CRITIQUE" }, { "source_node_id": "P12-V05-S3", "title": "Li等对体积分数批评的回应", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.23842", "source_version": "arXiv2602.23842v1;2026-02-27; preprint", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "pp.2–4 responses1–3/Eqs1–8; p.3 visually inspected" ], "not_reviewed": [ "independent replication", "expert adjudication" ], "independence_group": "LI_NICKELATE_HIGH_PRESSURE_2501_14584" }, { "source_node_id": "P12-V05-S4", "title": "原作者Zenodo数据存档v2", "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/18245895", "source_version": "Zenodo18245895v2;2026-01-15", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "record description/version and SI identity" ], "not_reviewed": [ "ExtendedDataFig4 numeric before/after delta", "all raw data" ], "independence_group": "LI_NICKELATE_HIGH_PRESSURE_2501_14584" } ], "global_task": "统一样品氧计量、压力/应变和测量口径，做跨实验室盲复现。", "milestone_artifact": "样品—工艺—结构—性质联动数据库与候选机制判别表。", "epistemic_state": "phenomenon_known_mechanism_open", "field": "物理与宇宙", "evidence_needed": [ "独立样品中电输运、磁性及热力学证据互证；谱学与相敏感测量区分配对模型；模型对未用于拟合的新材料给出准确预测。" ], "important_limits": [ "96 K不是零电阻温度，亦无此温度的体积抗磁确证；同文另一成分La2SmNi2O7的92 K onset、73 K零阻及60 K以下抗磁须保持样品/压力区别。已读的是未编辑接受稿；最终VoR主文尚未逐字比对。", "45K并非整片已形成零阻相干态；BKT拟合亦不是无条件证明。", "与正式摘要8K的舍入口径不混用；互感并不识别微观配对胶水。", "不是所有镍酸盐/所有费米面的全覆盖，也不测序参量的相位符号。", "耦合存在不自动等于配对因果机制；尚未唯一识别玻色子种类。", "高压接受稿的原始正文和所列方法已核对，最终VoR主文及arXiv版本错配仍未解决；本轮没有复算原始数据，跨体系模型预测仍需独立未拟合样品检验。", "补充结构材料的回收不把96K电阻onset升级为96K体Meissner或零电阻。", "批评为预印本方法主张；不是已接受勘误，也没有否定实际抗磁观测。", "作者回应不是独立重复；几何/均匀性与推断假设仍需领域审查。", "这是真实方法分歧，应并列归属，不能把22.8%当已生效更正，也不能凭回应较新就认为争论解决。", "数据文件版本更新、arXiv元数据/内容错配、以及方法争论是三个不同事件。" ], "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "frontier_detail": [ "原始输运、抗磁和谱学把问题从“是否出现转变”推进到“何种配对及何种耦合”，仍不支持无条件统一模型。", "双层镍酸盐的配对对称性和主导相互作用是什么，模型能否预测不同压力、掺杂与应变下的可复现超导行为？" ], "original_field": "凝聚态物理与材料", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "非常规高温超导的机制与可预测设计", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "P12", "title": "非常规高温超导的机制与可预测设计", "domain": "物理与宇宙", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical", "engineering" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "电阻转变、抗磁和谱学各提供局部线索；配对机制仍未被唯一识别。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "P12-C1", "P12-C2", "P12-C3", "P12-C4", "P12-C5", "P12-C6" ], "evidence_ids": [ "P12-E1", "P12-V05-E1", "P12-E2", "P12-E3", "P12-E4", "P12-E5", "P12-E6", "P12-V05-E2", "P12-V05-E3" ], "source_ids": [ "P12-S4", "P12-S1", "P12-V05-S1", "P12-S2", "P12-S3", "P12-V05-S2", "P12-V05-S3" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "哪种相互作用主导配对，模型能否预测新样品中的超导行为？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "P12-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "同一样品的输运、磁性和热力学互证，以及能区分模型的谱学与相位测量。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "P12-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "96 K 起始转变不是 96 K 零电阻或体抗磁；方法批评与回应尚未裁决。", "node_ids": [ "P12-L1", "P12-L2", "P12-L3", "P12-L4", "P12-L5", "P12-L6", "P12-V05-L1", "P12-V05-L2", "P12-V05-L3", "P12-V05-L4", "P12-V05-L5" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "三种探针围绕同一样品", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "电阻转变、抗磁和谱学各提供局部线索；配对机制仍未被唯一识别。 哪种相互作用主导配对，模型能否预测新样品中的超导行为？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "P12-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "锁定样品、压力与转变定义", "proposed_artifact": "样品条件卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "P12-Q1", "P12-C1", "P12-C2", "P12-C3", "P12-C4", "P12-C5", "P12-C6" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "P12-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "让输运与磁性相互核对", "proposed_artifact": "同样品证据组", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "P12-Q1", "P12-C1", "P12-C2", "P12-C3", "P12-C4", "P12-C5", "P12-C6" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "P12-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "比较配对模型与争论前提", "proposed_artifact": "可区别预测图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "P12-Q1", "P12-C1", "P12-C2", "P12-C3", "P12-C4", "P12-C5", "P12-C6" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "P12-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "在未拟合样品上验证", "proposed_artifact": "模型适用范围表", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "P12-Q1", "P12-C1", "P12-C2", "P12-C3", "P12-C4", "P12-C5", "P12-C6" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "P12", "question_id": "P12-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "P12-C1", "P12-C2", "P12-C3", "P12-C4", "P12-C5", "P12-C6", "P12-V05-C2", "P12-V05-C3" ], "all_source_ids": [ "P12-S1", "P12-S2", "P12-S3", "P12-S4", "P12-V05-S1", "P12-V05-S2", "P12-V05-S3", "P12-V05-S4" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "P12-L1", "P12-L2", "P12-L3", "P12-L4", "P12-L5", "P12-L6", "P12-V05-L1", "P12-V05-L2", "P12-V05-L3", "P12-V05-L4", "P12-V05-L5" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 3, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "P12-G01", "status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "target": "Retrieve final Nature main text and compare accepted-to-VoR claim passages", "residual_limits": [ "Need final VoR main DOI10.1038/s41586-025-09954-4; no complete accepted-to-final reconciliation; absence of listed correction is not exhaustive proof none exists." ], "exact_needed_source": { "source": "Final Version-of-Record main article, Nature DOI10.1038/s41586-025-09954-4", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09954-4", "detail": "Accepted preview already read; full final-to-accepted main-text comparison still unavailable." }, "audit_disposition": "pass_unresolved_disposition" }, { "id": "P12-G02", "status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "target": "Resolve arXiv 2501.14584v3 metadata/PDF content mismatch", "residual_limits": [ "Need title/DOI/version-matched v3 content or official explanation; do not label the mismatch retraction, misconduct, or a scientific refutation." ], "exact_needed_source": { "source": "Actual title/content-matched arXiv2501.14584v3 or official explanation of served-file mismatch", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.14584v3", "detail": "v3 metadata describes96K/final Nature update but both official PDF routes serve identical older91K content; cause unresolved." }, "audit_disposition": "pass_unresolved_disposition" }, { "id": "P12-G03", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Read claim-relevant final 96 K supplementary evidence", "residual_limits": [ "No raw-data reanalysis; complete figure-pixel comparison not performed; final main text remains a separate gap." ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" } ] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "P12-C1", "label": "96K是指定起始温度", "text": "接受稿报告La1.57Sm1.43Ni2O7−δ在21.6 GPa、氦传压介质下出现96 K电阻转变onset；扩展图10明确该成分尚未达到零电阻。", "scope": "成分、样品、压力与温标定义必须分别保留；96 K样品的氦介质由p.7正文明确给出。p.14四探针、室温红宝石压标和DC磁性方法主要以La2SmNi2O7叙述，不假定全部方法参数可无差别移用于96 K样品。", "status": "source_reported_scoped_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": 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Fig.1 caption p.15", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "P12-L2", "label": "常压起始与相干分开：边界", "text": "45K并非整片已形成零阻相干态；BKT拟合亦不是无条件证明。", "preciseLocator": "PDF p.4 paragraphs corresponding to Fig.1b–f; Fig.1 caption p.15", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "P12-E2", "label": "常压起始与相干分开：原文依据", "text": "电阻先两步下降，接近零电阻段另作BKT型拟合。", "preciseLocator": "PDF p.4 paragraphs corresponding to Fig.1b–f; Fig.1 caption p.15", "fulltextUrl": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2412.16622", "sourceVersion": "arXiv:2412.16622v1; 2024-12-21 author manuscript" } ] }, { "id": "P12-C3", "label": "磁性证据给低温互证", "text": "同一薄膜v1中双线圈互感测量在8.5 K以下出现抗磁信号，与9 K的BKT型温标相近。", "scope": "同一样品体系，属于不同测量通道而非独立实验室重复。", "status": "source_reported_scoped_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "原文更正、独立复算或专家对所列前提与推断的审查。", "sources": [ "P12-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "P12-P3", "label": "磁性证据给低温互证：前提", "text": "同一样品体系，属于不同测量通道而非独立实验室重复。", "preciseLocator": "PDF p.5 paragraph beginning The Meissner diamagnetic effect; 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Full original Methods/Results and validation details needed Preprint not peer reviewed Cannot equate this task with AlphaGenome broad benchmarks or Systema perturbation task", "不是全人群诊断准确率；模型还缺少部分细胞/RNA覆盖和trans机制。预印本未获独立复现；与AlphaGenome原论文和Systema不是同一任务。" ], "epistemic_mode": "经验研究：局部可预测，跨尺度机制未闭合", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "LS01-S1", "title": "Advancing regulatory variant effect prediction with AlphaGenome", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10014-0", "source_version": "Nature649,1206–1218; VOR2026-01-28", "date": "2026-01-28", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Main evaluation paragraphs; Fig.1e", "Variant effect evaluation paragraphs near Fig.4; Discussion limitations", "Rights and permissions; publication metadata" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "ALPHAGENOME_AVSEC2026" }, { "source_node_id": "LS01-S2", "title": "Systema: a framework for evaluating genetic perturbation response prediction beyond systematic variation", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-025-02777-8", "source_version": "VOR2025-08-25; Nature Biotechnology44(2026),1050–1059", "date": "2025-08-25", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Results benchmark methods and baselines; Fig.1", "Discussion; Methods Reference-based metrics and Limitations of reference-sensitive metrics", "About this article" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "SYSTEMA2025_10_DATASETS" }, { "source_node_id": "LS01-V05-S1", "title": "Causal variant underestimation is a major overlooked driver of sequence-to-function model underperformance", "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172v1.full", "source_version": "bioRxivv1,posted2026-09-11; official API says published:NA", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Publisher abstract and official API metadata; indexed fulltext excerpts only, not reliable full Methods reading" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Full original Methods/Results and validation details needed", "Preprint not peer reviewed", "Cannot equate this task with AlphaGenome broad benchmarks or Systema perturbation task" ], "independence_group": "LS01_VERSION_FAMILY_SHARED_INPUT" }, { "source_node_id": "LS01-V05-S2", "title": "AlphaGenome Atlas: in silico mutagenesis of the entire human genome improves prioritization and interpretation of non-coding variants", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC13596691/fullTextXML", "source_version": "medRxiv v1 posted 2026-09-20; Europe PMC deposited preprint PMC13596691", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Results: AVI prioritization helped resolve a rare disease case", "Methods: Training Data; Data Split; Overlap Filtering during Evaluation; GREGoR retrospective", "Discussion first two paragraphs; Figure 3A caption" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Preprint, not peer reviewed", "No independent benchmark rerun or complete supplement audit", "No general disease-outcome prediction established" ], "independence_group": "ALPHAGENOME_ATLAS2026_SHARED_MODEL_AND_INPUTS" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "编辑判断：序列调控预测与单细胞扰动预测分别推进局部可预测性；Systema不能直接反驳AlphaGenome。", "能否把新变异、多基因组合、细胞状态和环境连起来，可靠预测人体表型与疾病？" ], "original_field": "生命科学与医学", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "从 DNA 到细胞与疾病", "current_status": "由新变异、多基因与环境可靠预测人体疾病结局。", "limits": "不是25/26种疾病能诊断，也不是所有变异预测正确；未复跑基准。 作者局限说明不能量化每个疾病的误差，也不否定局部预测价值。 仅在该指标与数据集成立，不推论所有深度模型普遍无用。 更好的基准不是人体疾病预测机制已经闭合。 尚无本链支持的个体疾病命运预测；9月新预印本已发现但全文访问受限。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "LS01", "title": "从 DNA 到细胞与疾病", "domain": "生命与医学", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "序列、扰动和病例排序模型回答不同任务；局部基准进步不能合成全身疾病预测。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "LS01-C1", "LS01-C3", "LS01-C5", "LS01-V05-C1" ], "evidence_ids": [ "LS01-E1", "LS01-E3", "LS01-E5", "LS01-V05-E1" ], "source_ids": [ "LS01-S1", "LS01-S2", "LS01-V05-S2" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "怎样把变异、细胞状态和环境连到可靠的人体表型预测？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "LS01-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "跨背景的前瞻留出检验、真实组织因果扰动和临床结局校准。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "LS01-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "25/26 项基准表现不是诊断 25/26 种疾病；跨任务结果不能直接互相推翻。", "node_ids": [ "LS01-L1", "LS01-L2", "LS01-L3", "LS01-L4", "LS01-L5", "LS01-V05-L1", "LS01-V05-L2" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "DNA到细胞到器官的断续链", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "序列、扰动和病例排序模型回答不同任务；局部基准进步不能合成全身疾病预测。 怎样把变异、细胞状态和环境连到可靠的人体表型预测？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "LS01-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "拆开序列、扰动与诊断任务", "proposed_artifact": "任务分母表", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS01-Q1", "LS01-C1", "LS01-C3", "LS01-C5", "LS01-V05-C1" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS01-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "跨细胞背景前瞻留出", "proposed_artifact": "外推测试", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS01-Q1", "LS01-C1", "LS01-C3", "LS01-C5", "LS01-V05-C1" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS01-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "用真实组织干预检验", "proposed_artifact": "因果连接证据", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS01-Q1", "LS01-C1", "LS01-C3", "LS01-C5", "LS01-V05-C1" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS01-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "连接器官和临床结局", "proposed_artifact": "多尺度校准记录", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS01-Q1", "LS01-C1", "LS01-C3", "LS01-C5", "LS01-V05-C1" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "LS01", "question_id": "LS01-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "LS01-C1", "LS01-C2", "LS01-C3", "LS01-C4", "LS01-C5", "LS01-V05-C1" ], "all_source_ids": [ "LS01-S1", "LS01-S2", "LS01-V05-S1", "LS01-V05-S2" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "LS01-L1", "LS01-L2", "LS01-L3", "LS01-L4", "LS01-L5", "LS01-V05-L1", "LS01-V05-L2" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 2, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "LS01-G01", "status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "target": "Read causal-variant underestimation preprint 10.64898/2026.09.08.750172", "residual_limits": [ "Full original Methods/Results and validation details needed", "Preprint not peer reviewed", "Cannot equate this task with AlphaGenome broad benchmarks or Systema perturbation task" ], "exact_needed_source": { "source": "Full original preprint10.64898/2026.09.08.750172v1", "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172v1.full", "detail": "Named causal-variant underestimation Methods/Results and validation context; 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Fig.1e; refers to Supplementary Table4", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS01-L1", "label": "序列模型：限定基准领先：限制", "text": "不是25/26种疾病能诊断，也不是所有变异预测正确；未复跑基准。", "preciseLocator": "Main benchmarking paragraphs191–193 in rendered HTML; Fig.1e; refers to Supplementary Table4", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS01-E1", "label": "序列模型：限定基准领先：原文依据", "text": "Fig.1e比较26项分子变异效应任务，正文说明使用蒸馏学生模型。", "preciseLocator": "Main benchmarking paragraphs191–193 in rendered HTML; Fig.1e; refers to Supplementary Table4", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10014-0", "sourceVersion": "Nature649,1206–1218; VOR2026-01-28" } ] }, { "id": "LS01-C2", "label": "远端与跨环境：仍受限", "text": "作者明确指出>100 kb远端调控、跨细胞环境和条件特异变异效应仍难准确刻画。", "scope": "AlphaGenome正式论文和Systema原始基准；无个体医疗建议。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS01-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS01-P2", "label": "远端与跨环境：仍受限：条件", "text": "模型从序列预测分子后果，疾病还涉及发育、基因功能及环境。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion paragraphs beginning Despite its advances and Finally", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS01-L2", "label": "远端与跨环境：仍受限：限制", "text": "作者局限说明不能量化每个疾病的误差，也不否定局部预测价值。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion paragraphs beginning Despite its advances and Finally", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS01-E2", "label": "远端与跨环境：仍受限：原文依据", "text": "Discussion列远端、细胞情境与复杂性状三个外推限制。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion paragraphs beginning Despite its advances and Finally", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10014-0", "sourceVersion": "Nature649,1206–1218; VOR2026-01-28" } ] }, { "id": "LS01-C3", "label": "扰动模型：简单基线必要", "text": "Systema的10个数据集测试中，未见单基因扰动的PearsonΔ指标上，扰动均值基线胜过所比较方法。", "scope": "AlphaGenome正式论文和Systema原始基准；无个体医疗建议。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS01-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS01-P3", "label": "扰动模型：简单基线必要：条件", "text": "比较CPA、GEARS、scGPT；三次不同数据划分；不是AlphaGenome评测。", "preciseLocator": "Results benchmarking and simple baselines, Fig.1c and paragraph beginning We found that the two simple baselines", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS01-L3", "label": "扰动模型：简单基线必要：限制", "text": "仅在该指标与数据集成立，不推论所有深度模型普遍无用。", "preciseLocator": "Results benchmarking and simple baselines, Fig.1c and paragraph beginning We found that the two simple baselines", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS01-E3", "label": "扰动模型：简单基线必要：原文依据", "text": "Fig.1c和正文比较10数据集、CPA/GEARS/scGPT与简单均值基线。", "preciseLocator": "Results benchmarking and simple baselines, Fig.1c and paragraph beginning We found that the two simple baselines", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-025-02777-8", "sourceVersion": "VOR2025-08-25; Nature Biotechnology44(2026),1050–1059" } ] }, { "id": "LS01-C4", "label": "评估框架：本身也有边界", "text": "Systema更换参照以凸显扰动特异效应，但参照敏感指标难评弱扰动且可忽略幅度。", "scope": "AlphaGenome正式论文和Systema原始基准；无个体医疗建议。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS01-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS01-P4", "label": "评估框架：本身也有边界：条件", "text": "方向相关与效应大小属于不同评估问题。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Limitations of reference-sensitive metrics, paragraphs1–3; Discussion paragraph beginning While changing the reference", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS01-L4", "label": "评估框架：本身也有边界：限制", "text": "更好的基准不是人体疾病预测机制已经闭合。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Limitations of reference-sensitive metrics, paragraphs1–3; Discussion paragraph beginning While changing the reference", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS01-E4", "label": "评估框架：本身也有边界：原文依据", "text": "Methods明确相关/余弦类指标可忽略幅度且对参照敏感。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Limitations of reference-sensitive metrics, paragraphs1–3; Discussion paragraph beginning While changing the reference", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-025-02777-8", "sourceVersion": "VOR2025-08-25; Nature Biotechnology44(2026),1050–1059" } ] }, { "id": "LS01-C5", "label": "编辑结论：不同任务不可互相反证", "text": "编辑判断：序列调控预测与单细胞扰动预测分别推进局部可预测性；Systema不能直接反驳AlphaGenome。", "scope": "AlphaGenome正式论文和Systema原始基准；无个体医疗建议。", "status": "editorial_assessment", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "跨遗传背景、细胞状态和环境的前瞻留出因果验证，并连到临床终点。", "sources": [ "LS01-S1", "LS01-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS01-P5", "label": "编辑结论：不同任务不可互相反证：条件", "text": "先对齐输入、细胞体系、输出终点与测试集，才判断重复或冲突。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Main and Discussion; S2 Results benchmark inclusion and Methods metrics", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS01-L5", "label": "编辑结论：不同任务不可互相反证：限制", "text": "尚无本链支持的个体疾病命运预测；9月新预印本已发现但全文访问受限。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Main and Discussion; S2 Results benchmark inclusion and Methods metrics", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS01-E5", "label": "编辑结论：不同任务不可互相反证：原文依据", "text": "两原研究具有不同输入、任务、模型和终点，不能组成直接复制对。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Main and Discussion; S2 Results benchmark inclusion and Methods metrics", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-10014-0", "sourceVersion": "Nature649,1206–1218; VOR2026-01-28" } ] }, { "id": "LS01-V05-C1", "label": "Atlas回顾性排序", "text": "AVI在指定已解决病例的回顾性候选排序中优于所比较CADD基线；该结论有明确分母和筛选条件。", "scope": "Only named passages and source versions; no replication or expert review.", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "Author correction, independent validation, missing source recovery or expert review changes the scoped interpretation.", "sources": [ "LS01-V05-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS01-V05-P1", "label": "Atlas回顾性排序：条件", "text": "AVI整合AlphaGenome、保守性与其他特征；112个既有致病/可能致病变异，低频筛选后105个。", "preciseLocator": "Results: AVI prioritization helped resolve a rare disease case; Methods: Training Data; Data Split; Overlap Filtering during Evaluation; GREGoR retrospective; Discussion first two paragraphs; Figure 3A caption", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS01-V05-L2", "label": "Atlas回顾性排序：限制", "text": "不是全人群诊断准确率；模型还缺少部分细胞/RNA覆盖和trans机制。预印本未获独立复现；与AlphaGenome原论文和Systema不是同一任务。", "preciseLocator": "Results: AVI prioritization helped resolve a rare disease case; Methods: Training Data; Data Split; Overlap Filtering during Evaluation; GREGoR retrospective; Discussion first two paragraphs; Figure 3A caption", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS01-V05-E1", "label": "Atlas回顾性排序：原文依据", "text": "AVI combines AlphaGenome features with conservation, AlphaMissense and annotations, trained using gnomAD allele-frequency proxy labels. In 112 previously solved GREGoR variants, top-50 recall was 29.5% versus 12.5% for CADD; an allele-frequency-filtered subset of 105 variants gave 74.3% versus 61%. These are retrospective prioritization endpoints, not population-wide diagnostic accuracy. Coordinate-overlap exclusions are specified. 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扰动预测任务混同。" ] }, { "item": "AlphaGenome Atlas 的有界回顾性优先排序结果", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "未经同行评审；未独立重跑基准或完整审查补充材料。", "不能据此确立一般疾病结局预测能力。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "LS01-C1", "LS01-C2", "LS01-C3", "LS01-C4", "LS01-C5", "LS01-V05-C1" ], "limitation_ids": [ "LS01-L1", "LS01-L2", "LS01-L3", "LS01-L4", "LS01-L5", "LS01-V05-L1", "LS01-V05-L2" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "LS01-G01", "LS01-G02" ] }, "updates": [ { "gap_id": "LS01-G01", "old_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "new_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "scope": "Read causal-variant underestimation preprint 10.64898/2026.09.08.750172", "actual_access_level": "官方API元数据HTTP200；官方全文的搜索索引选段；连续全文未取得", "version_verified": "API仅返回v1，实际发布2026-09-11，published=NA；DOI内09-08不是发布日期。", "supported_claims": [ "索引Results 2.1限定Whole Blood、131 kb TSS窗口、GTEx精细定位PIP>0.9；筛选后258个eGenes。不能外推全部组织、罕见变异或所有AlphaGenome任务。", "索引Methods说明使用GTEx v8与MAF≥1%的eQTL，elastic 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"作者实验室网页可读，未取得替代连续原文" }, { "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/search?format=json&query=DOI:10.64898/2026.09.08.750172", "result": "HTTP200 PPR1317722；inPMC/inEPMC/hasPDF均N" } ], "newer_versions_or_corrections": "API与有界检索未列出v2或正式发表关系；不保证全网不存在更新。", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change; no_independent_replication", "status_reason": "指定连续原文或补充材料尚未取得；新增索引段落单列，不将检索完成算作原文缺口解决。", "finding": "索引Results 2.1限定Whole Blood、131 kb TSS窗口、GTEx精细定位PIP>0.9；筛选后258个eGenes。不能外推全部组织、罕见变异或所有AlphaGenome任务。索引Methods说明使用GTEx v8与MAF≥1%的eQTL，elastic net基线在530名训练个体上拟合；非eQTL对照另用MAF≥5%。这不等同于实验确认非因果。", "reading_extent": [ "官方API元数据HTTP200；官方全文的搜索索引选段；连续全文未取得" ], "sources": [ { "title": "LS01-G01 §2.1首段/筛选末段；A Methods > RNA-seq and eQTL data、Elastic net baselines、Selection of non-eQTLs", "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172v1.full", "locator": "§2.1首段/筛选末段；A Methods > RNA-seq and eQTL data、Elastic net baselines、Selection of non-eQTLs", "access": "publisher-indexed selected passages only" }, { "title": "LS01-G01 collection[0].date/version/published", "url": "https://api.biorxiv.org/details/biorxiv/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172", "locator": "collection[0].date/version/published", "access": "HTTP200 JSON" } ], "remaining_gap": "连续Methods/Results及验证细节未读；不可称完整审阅。数据使用许可不等于可重新分发GTEx个体基因组；未运行代码。", "next_action": "获得合法连续正文后，先核对训练/测试划分、模型折与GTEx样本独立性；再在可授权数据上预注册按距离/MAF分层的因果变异排名与负对照校准检验。", "title": "因果变异预测低估预印本", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" } ] }, { "id": "LS02", "field": "生命与医学", "title": "安全延缓人的衰老", "known_core": "本卡已核查的限定结果与论证：220人随机试验中，197人具备基线及至少一次随访甲基化数据；研究对象为健康非肥胖成年人。 24个月DunedinPACE标准化组间效应d=−0.25，95%CI[−0.41,−0.09]。 24个月PC PhenoAge与PC GrimAge效应均为0.05；其95%CI分别[−0.11,0.20]、[−0.07,0.17]。 目标限热量25%，干预组实际平均达成11.9%（标准误0.7%）。", "frontier_question": "哪些干预真正延长人的健康寿命，且收益超过长期副作用？", "evidence_needed": [ "长期随机试验，以疾病、功能、生活质量及死亡为临床终点", "验证生物标志物能否作为干预效果的可靠替代终点", "检验不同年龄、性别、健康状态和人群中的风险收益" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "替代终点有效性", "长期因果效应", "个体异质性" ], "important_limits": "不直接外推高龄、慢病、儿童或全部人口；并非所有随机者均有甲基化随访。 作者换算2–3%指标速度下降，不是实测寿命延长百分比。 置信区间跨零不确立无效或等效；也不能选一个指标代表整体逆龄。 高依从者与低依从者比较不再只是随机分配对比；TOT另需工具变量假设。 文中10–15%死亡风险推算来自外部观察关联，不是此试验实测结局；不构成个人饮食建议。", "epistemic_mode": "经验研究：可干预线索，长期结局未定", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "LS02-S1", "title": "Effect of long-term caloric restriction on DNA methylation measures of biological aging in healthy adults from the CALERIE trial", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-022-00357-y", "source_version": "Nature Aging3,248–257; VOR2023-02-09", "date": "2023-02-09", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Main trial population, DNAm sample, Fig.2 and ITT results", "Main achieved calorie restriction; Discussion longitudinal follow-up limits", "Methods randomization, procedures and statistical models" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "CALERIE_PHASE2_DNAM" } ], "frontier_detail": "安全延长人的长期健康寿命和临床净收益。", "original_field": "生命科学与医学", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "安全延缓人的衰老", "current_status": "截至2026-10-04，随机试验显示一种甲基化指标小幅改变；两年、事后与替代终点的限制明确。 领域专家复核待完成。", "limits": "不直接外推高龄、慢病、儿童或全部人口；并非所有随机者均有甲基化随访。 作者换算2–3%指标速度下降，不是实测寿命延长百分比。 置信区间跨零不确立无效或等效；也不能选一个指标代表整体逆龄。 高依从者与低依从者比较不再只是随机分配对比；TOT另需工具变量假设。 文中10–15%死亡风险推算来自外部观察关联，不是此试验实测结局；不构成个人饮食建议。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "primary_passages_checked", "expert_review": "pending", "visual": { "id": "LS02", "title": "安全延缓人的衰老", "domain": "生命与医学", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "限定成人试验中，一个衰老标志物改变；其他时钟未显示相同结果。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "LS02-C1", "LS02-C2", "LS02-C3" ], "evidence_ids": [ "LS02-E1", "LS02-E2", "LS02-E3" ], "source_ids": [ "LS02-S1" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "能否安全改善长期疾病、功能和健康寿命？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "LS02-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "长期随机试验及可靠的替代终点验证。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "LS02-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "标志物变化不是实测寿命延长；不能据此给个人饮食建议。", "node_ids": [ "LS02-L1", "LS02-L2", "LS02-L3", "LS02-L4", "LS02-L5" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "仪表盘与真实生活日历", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "限定成人试验中，一个衰老标志物改变；其他时钟未显示相同结果。 能否安全改善长期疾病、功能和健康寿命？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "LS02-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "分开时钟指标与临床结局", "proposed_artifact": "终点地图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS02-Q1", "LS02-C1", "LS02-C2", "LS02-C3" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS02-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "检验指标能否替代结局", "proposed_artifact": "替代终点验证", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS02-Q1", "LS02-C1", "LS02-C2", "LS02-C3" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS02-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "长期随机跟踪获益与风险", "proposed_artifact": "随访记录", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS02-Q1", "LS02-C1", "LS02-C2", "LS02-C3" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS02-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "比较不同人群净收益", "proposed_artifact": "适用范围卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS02-Q1", "LS02-C1", "LS02-C2", "LS02-C3" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "LS02", "question_id": "LS02-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "LS02-C1", "LS02-C2", "LS02-C3", "LS02-C4", "LS02-C5" ], "all_source_ids": [ "LS02-S1" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "LS02-L1", "LS02-L2", "LS02-L3", "LS02-L4", "LS02-L5" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 0, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "LS02-C1", "label": "人群：随机试验的事后分析", "text": "220人随机试验中，197人具备基线及至少一次随访甲基化数据；研究对象为健康非肥胖成年人。", "scope": "CALERIE Phase2的DNAm事后分析；不综述所有抗衰老干预。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS02-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS02-P1", "label": "人群：随机试验的事后分析：条件", "text": "男性21–50岁、绝经前女性21–47岁，BMI22.0–27.9；甲基化为事后分析。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraphs beginning CALERIE Phase2, Of238 eligible and Blood DNAm data; Methods Study design", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS02-L1", "label": "人群：随机试验的事后分析：限制", "text": "不直接外推高龄、慢病、儿童或全部人口；并非所有随机者均有甲基化随访。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraphs beginning CALERIE Phase2, Of238 eligible and Blood DNAm data; Methods Study design", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS02-E1", "label": "人群：随机试验的事后分析：原文依据", "text": "Main随机人数、血样随访人数和入组范围给出分析总体。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraphs beginning CALERIE Phase2, Of238 eligible and Blood DNAm data; Methods Study design", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-022-00357-y", "sourceVersion": "Nature Aging3,248–257; VOR2023-02-09" } ] }, { "id": "LS02-C2", "label": "DunedinPACE：小平均效应", "text": "24个月DunedinPACE标准化组间效应d=−0.25，95%CI[−0.41,−0.09]。", "scope": "CALERIE Phase2的DNAm事后分析；不综述所有抗衰老干预。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS02-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS02-P2", "label": "DunedinPACE：小平均效应：条件", "text": "意向治疗混合模型、基线与协变量调整；指标测血液DNA甲基化。", "preciseLocator": "Main ITT paragraph beginning CR treatment reduced; Fig.2", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS02-L2", "label": "DunedinPACE：小平均效应：限制", "text": "作者换算2–3%指标速度下降，不是实测寿命延长百分比。", "preciseLocator": "Main ITT paragraph beginning CR treatment reduced; Fig.2", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS02-E2", "label": "DunedinPACE：小平均效应：原文依据", "text": "Fig.2与ITT段落报告24月标准化差及置信区间。", "preciseLocator": "Main ITT paragraph beginning CR treatment reduced; Fig.2", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-022-00357-y", "sourceVersion": "Nature Aging3,248–257; VOR2023-02-09" } ] }, { "id": "LS02-C3", "label": "其他时钟：未显著不等于零", "text": "24个月PC PhenoAge与PC GrimAge效应均为0.05；其95%CI分别[−0.11,0.20]、[−0.07,0.17]。", "scope": "CALERIE Phase2的DNAm事后分析；不综述所有抗衰老干预。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS02-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS02-P3", "label": "其他时钟：未显著不等于零：条件", "text": "同一试验，但各时钟构念和敏感度不同。", "preciseLocator": "Main ITT paragraph beginning However, change in PhenoAge and GrimAge", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS02-L3", "label": "其他时钟：未显著不等于零：限制", "text": "置信区间跨零不确立无效或等效；也不能选一个指标代表整体逆龄。", "preciseLocator": "Main ITT paragraph beginning However, change in PhenoAge and GrimAge", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS02-E3", "label": "其他时钟：未显著不等于零：原文依据", "text": "同一ITT段落给两个PC时钟跨零的区间。", "preciseLocator": "Main ITT paragraph beginning However, change in PhenoAge and GrimAge", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-022-00357-y", "sourceVersion": "Nature Aging3,248–257; VOR2023-02-09" } ] }, { "id": "LS02-C4", "label": "剂量：分配不等于达成", "text": "目标限热量25%，干预组实际平均达成11.9%（标准误0.7%）。", "scope": "CALERIE Phase2的DNAm事后分析；不综述所有抗衰老干预。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS02-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS02-P4", "label": "剂量：分配不等于达成：条件", "text": "依从性依据双标水与身体成分变化估计；包括密集行为支持。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraph beginning In the CALERIE Trial, the %CR achieved; Methods Procedures", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS02-L4", "label": "剂量：分配不等于达成：限制", "text": "高依从者与低依从者比较不再只是随机分配对比；TOT另需工具变量假设。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraph beginning In the CALERIE Trial, the %CR achieved; Methods Procedures", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS02-E4", "label": "剂量：分配不等于达成：原文依据", "text": "依从性段落区分目标剂量与实际平均限制量。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraph beginning In the CALERIE Trial, the %CR achieved; Methods Procedures", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-022-00357-y", "sourceVersion": "Nature Aging3,248–257; VOR2023-02-09" } ] }, { "id": "LS02-C5", "label": "编辑结论：临床终点仍未确立", "text": "编辑判断：本研究确立限定生物标志物变化，不能据此宣布人类健康寿命延长或死亡风险已下降。", "scope": "CALERIE Phase2的DNAm事后分析；不综述所有抗衰老干预。", "status": "editorial_assessment", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "长期随机试验的疾病、功能、生活质量和死亡，以及副作用的净效益。", "sources": [ "LS02-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS02-P5", "label": "编辑结论：临床终点仍未确立：条件", "text": "替代终点须证明干预引起的改变可靠预测临床获益。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion paragraph beginning Follow-up in the CALERIE Trial did not extend beyond the intervention", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS02-L5", "label": "编辑结论：临床终点仍未确立：限制", "text": "文中10–15%死亡风险推算来自外部观察关联，不是此试验实测结局；不构成个人饮食建议。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion paragraph beginning Follow-up in the CALERIE Trial did not extend beyond the intervention", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS02-E5", "label": "编辑结论：临床终点仍未确立：原文依据", "text": "Discussion明确试验没有干预后长期疾病/死亡随访。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion paragraph beginning Follow-up in the CALERIE Trial did not extend beyond the intervention", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s43587-022-00357-y", "sourceVersion": "Nature Aging3,248–257; VOR2023-02-09" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "LS02", "coverage_status": "specified_primary_passages_checked", "coverage_label": "指定原文已核", "coverage_note": "原试验事后甲基化分析的结果、样本和条件已核；寿命/死亡终点并非该研究直接证据。", "chain_review_status": "scoped_claims_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "LS02-C1", "LS02-C2", "LS02-C3", "LS02-C4" ], "limitation_ids": [ "LS02-L1", "LS02-L2", "LS02-L3", "LS02-L4", "LS02-L5" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "LS03", "field": "生命与医学", "title": "癌症的持久控制", "known_core": "本卡已核查的限定结果与论证：CheckMate067中联合组10年总生存43%、ipilimumab组19%；死亡HR0.53，95%CI[0.44,0.65]。 联合与nivolumab组的死亡HR0.85，95%CI[0.69,1.05]，原试验不为两者正式比较设计或赋能。 联合组中已在3年无进展者，10年黑色素瘤特异生存为96%；它不是全体随机者的生存率。 疫苗一期随访3.2年，8名应答者RFS中位数未达到，8名非应答者13.4个月。 报告的加强后克隆中位寿命7.7年来自频率衰减拟合至检测阈值；长期范围不是已观察到百年。", "frontier_question": "如何预测并阻断耐药、转移和复发，使更多癌种获得可重复的持久控制？", "evidence_needed": [ "按癌种和分子亚型分层的随机对照试验与长期生存终点", "治疗前后纵向、多部位肿瘤和免疫微环境测量", "检验适应性联合方案及可预测的逃逸机制" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "进化与异质性", "机制缺口", "临床外推" ], "important_limits": "限定癌种与入组人群；联合治疗不良事件更频繁严重，不能只看生存不看风险。 不能据非显著结果宣称等效，也不能仅按中位数宣布联合显著优于nivolumab。 经过治疗后选择且不等于人人治愈；疾病特异生存亦非全因生存。 不是随机疫苗/无疫苗比较；小样本、未知宿主与治疗差异可混杂关联。 作者要求未来验证寿命外推；免疫持续不自动等于不复发。 不能合成“癌症已治愈”或疫苗独立疗效结论；不作个人治疗建议。", "epistemic_mode": "经验研究：局部强疗效与新机制前沿并存", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "LS03-S1", "title": "Final, 10-Year Outcomes with Nivolumab plus Ipilimumab in Advanced Melanoma", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC12080919/fullTextXML", "source_version": "PMC12080919 author accepted manuscript; final publication2024-09-15, issue2025-01-02", "date": "2024-09-15", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Methods Patients, Trial Design, Statistical Analysis", "Results Survival Outcomes, three-year progression-free subgroup", "Discussion adverse events and survival interpretation" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "CHECKMATE067" }, { "source_node_id": "LS03-S2", "title": "RNA neoantigen vaccines prime long-lived CD8+ T cells in pancreatic cancer", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11946889/fullTextXML", "source_version": "PMC11946889 publisher article; Nature639,1042–1051; published2025-02-19", "date": "2025-02-19", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Main Clinical outcome at extended follow-up, Fig.1", "Vaccines elicit long-lived T cell clones, Fig.2", "Discussion small sample/confounding; Methods Half-life and lifespan" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "AUTOGENE_CEVUMERAN_PHASE1" } ], "frontier_detail": "跨癌种可预测阻断耐药、转移和复发。", "original_field": "生命科学与医学", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "癌症的持久控制", "current_status": "截至2026-10-04，十年RCT支持限定癌种长期获益；胰腺癌疫苗仍是小样本关联与模型性免疫寿命。 领域专家复核待完成。", "limits": "限定癌种与入组人群；联合治疗不良事件更频繁严重，不能只看生存不看风险。 不能据非显著结果宣称等效，也不能仅按中位数宣布联合显著优于nivolumab。 经过治疗后选择且不等于人人治愈；疾病特异生存亦非全因生存。 不是随机疫苗/无疫苗比较；小样本、未知宿主与治疗差异可混杂关联。 作者要求未来验证寿命外推；免疫持续不自动等于不复发。 不能合成“癌症已治愈”或疫苗独立疗效结论；不作个人治疗建议。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "primary_passages_checked", "expert_review": "pending", "visual": { "id": "LS03", "title": "癌症的持久控制", "domain": "生命与医学", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "特定癌种有长期生存改善；小样本疫苗免疫结果回答的是另一层问题。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "LS03-C1", "LS03-C4", "LS03-C5" ], "evidence_ids": [ "LS03-E1", "LS03-E4", "LS03-E5" ], "source_ids": [ "LS03-S1", "LS03-S2" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "怎样跨癌种预测并阻断耐药、转移和复发？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "LS03-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "分层随机试验、长期终点和肿瘤免疫环境的纵向测量。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "LS03-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "治疗后挑出的应答者不能代表全体患者；免疫持续不等于不复发。", "node_ids": [ "LS03-L1", "LS03-L2", "LS03-L3", "LS03-L4", "LS03-L5", "LS03-L6" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "治疗分支与长期随访轨道", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "特定癌种有长期生存改善；小样本疫苗免疫结果回答的是另一层问题。 怎样跨癌种预测并阻断耐药、转移和复发？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "LS03-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "按癌种亚型固定人群", "proposed_artifact": "比较方案卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS03-Q1", "LS03-C1", "LS03-C4", "LS03-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS03-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "同时记录生存与不良反应", 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"独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS03-P2", "label": "比较：联合与单药属描述：条件", "text": "主要比较是各含nivolumab组对ipilimumab。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods Statistical Analysis; Results Survival Outcomes first paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS03-L2", "label": "比较：联合与单药属描述：限制", "text": "不能据非显著结果宣称等效，也不能仅按中位数宣布联合显著优于nivolumab。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods Statistical Analysis; Results Survival Outcomes first paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS03-E2", "label": "比较：联合与单药属描述：原文依据", "text": "Statistical Analysis明确联合对nivolumab仅为描述性比较。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods Statistical Analysis; Results Survival Outcomes first paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC12080919/fullTextXML", "sourceVersion": "PMC12080919 author accepted manuscript; final publication2024-09-15, issue2025-01-02" } ] }, { "id": "LS03-C3", "label": "长期存活：有条件的亚组", "text": "联合组中已在3年无进展者，10年黑色素瘤特异生存为96%；它不是全体随机者的生存率。", "scope": "CheckMate067三期十年随访与切除后PDAC一期疫苗随访；两者不是相互复制。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS03-P3", "label": "长期存活：有条件的亚组：条件", "text": "联合组这一条件亚组n=100；属于事后landmark描述。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Results post-hoc paragraph beginning In a post-hoc analysis, baseline characteristics; Fig.3B", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS03-L3", "label": "长期存活：有条件的亚组：限制", "text": "经过治疗后选择且不等于人人治愈；疾病特异生存亦非全因生存。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Results post-hoc paragraph beginning In a post-hoc analysis, baseline characteristics; Fig.3B", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS03-E3", "label": "长期存活：有条件的亚组：原文依据", "text": "Fig.3B以3年无进展为筛选条件，非所有随机者。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Results post-hoc paragraph beginning In a post-hoc analysis, baseline characteristics; Fig.3B", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC12080919/fullTextXML", "sourceVersion": "PMC12080919 author accepted manuscript; final publication2024-09-15, issue2025-01-02" } ] }, { "id": "LS03-C4", "label": "胰腺癌：免疫应答与复发关联", "text": "疫苗一期随访3.2年，8名应答者RFS中位数未达到，8名非应答者13.4个月。", "scope": "CheckMate067三期十年随访与切除后PDAC一期疫苗随访；两者不是相互复制。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS03-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS03-P4", "label": "胰腺癌：免疫应答与复发关联：条件", "text": "治疗包含手术、atezolizumab、个体疫苗及mFOLFIRINOX；按免疫应答分组。", "preciseLocator": "S2 Clinical outcome at extended follow-up, paragraph1, Fig.1a", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS03-L4", "label": "胰腺癌：免疫应答与复发关联：限制", "text": "不是随机疫苗/无疫苗比较；小样本、未知宿主与治疗差异可混杂关联。", "preciseLocator": "S2 Clinical outcome at extended follow-up, paragraph1, Fig.1a", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS03-E4", "label": "胰腺癌：免疫应答与复发关联：原文依据", "text": "Fig.1a为疫苗免疫应答分层的16人复发随访。", "preciseLocator": "S2 Clinical outcome at extended follow-up, paragraph1, Fig.1a", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11946889/fullTextXML", "sourceVersion": "PMC11946889 publisher article; Nature639,1042–1051; published2025-02-19" } ] }, { "id": "LS03-C5", "label": "免疫寿命：模型估计不是实测百年", "text": "报告的加强后克隆中位寿命7.7年来自频率衰减拟合至检测阈值；长期范围不是已观察到百年。", "scope": "CheckMate067三期十年随访与切除后PDAC一期疫苗随访；两者不是相互复制。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS03-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS03-P5", "label": "免疫寿命：模型估计不是实测百年：条件", "text": "指数衰减模型与检测阈值定义；实际随访约三年。", "preciseLocator": "S2 Vaccines elicit long-lived T cell clones, paragraphs beginning Next and After vaccine priming; Methods Half-life and lifespan", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS03-L5", "label": "免疫寿命：模型估计不是实测百年：限制", "text": "作者要求未来验证寿命外推；免疫持续不自动等于不复发。", "preciseLocator": "S2 Vaccines elicit long-lived T cell clones, paragraphs beginning Next and After vaccine priming; Methods Half-life and lifespan", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS03-E5", "label": "免疫寿命：模型估计不是实测百年：原文依据", "text": "Methods定义克隆寿命为指数拟合至检测阈值的时间。", "preciseLocator": "S2 Vaccines elicit long-lived T cell clones, paragraphs beginning Next and After vaccine priming; Methods Half-life and lifespan", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11946889/fullTextXML", "sourceVersion": "PMC11946889 publisher article; Nature639,1042–1051; published2025-02-19" } ] }, { "id": "LS03-C6", "label": "编辑结论：不能泛化为通用治愈", "text": "编辑判断：随机长期生存与小样本免疫机制证据属于不同层级，需逐癌种检验持久控制。", "scope": "CheckMate067三期十年随访与切除后PDAC一期疫苗随访；两者不是相互复制。", "status": "editorial_assessment", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "疫苗随机试验及按亚型分层、长期耐药/复发追踪和外部重复。", "sources": [ "LS03-S1", "LS03-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS03-P6", "label": "编辑结论：不能泛化为通用治愈：条件", "text": "保持癌种、终点、比较组、后续治疗和选择机制。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods/Survival Outcomes; S2 Discussion small-sample confounding paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS03-L6", "label": "编辑结论：不能泛化为通用治愈：限制", "text": "不能合成“癌症已治愈”或疫苗独立疗效结论；不作个人治疗建议。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods/Survival Outcomes; S2 Discussion small-sample confounding paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS03-E6", "label": "编辑结论：不能泛化为通用治愈：原文依据", "text": "RCT长期结局、一期关联及克隆寿命模型的证据类型不同。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods/Survival Outcomes; S2 Discussion small-sample confounding paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC12080919/fullTextXML", "sourceVersion": "PMC12080919 author accepted manuscript; final publication2024-09-15, issue2025-01-02" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "LS03", "coverage_status": "specified_primary_passages_checked", "coverage_label": "指定原文已核", "coverage_note": "原作者稿相关全文经合法开放XML取得；条件亚组和克隆寿命模型已分开，完整SI和原始数据未重算。", "chain_review_status": "scoped_claims_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "source": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12080919/", "gap": "网页验证码，未处理验证码；通过EuropePMC合法开放XML读取作者稿。", "impact": "已解决全文读取；未复核全部补充材料。" }, { "source": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08508-4", "gap": "网页/PDF工具错误、PMC网页验证码；EuropePMC公开XML成功。", "impact": "已解决全文相关段落读取。" } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "LS03-C1", "LS03-C2", "LS03-C3", "LS03-C4", "LS03-C5" ], "limitation_ids": [ "LS03-L1", "LS03-L2", "LS03-L3", "LS03-L4", "LS03-L5", "LS03-L6" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "LS04", "field": "生命与医学", "title": "神经退行的根本干预", "known_core": [ "1736人随机试验纳入60–85岁、MCI/轻度痴呆且PET有淀粉样蛋白和tau证据的人群。", "合并tau人群76周iADRS变化为−10.19对−13.11；组间差2.92，95%CI[1.51,4.33]。", "安全人群ARIA-E为205/853（24.0%）对18/874（2.1%）；研究判定治疗相关死亡3例对1例。", "2025延长研究提供三年观察，但原安慰剂组开始用药，因此使用外部ADNI比较。", "2026重分析质疑以历史对照解释开放延长期递增获益；其依据是已发表汇总轨迹的模拟校准和阶段斜率比较。" ], "frontier_question": "如何在症状前识别可干预机制，并实现持续的认知与功能保护？", "evidence_needed": [ "更长时间的预防和治疗随机试验", "同时跟踪淀粉样蛋白、tau、免疫、血管及神经损伤", "比较患者真正重视的功能获益、治疗负担与不良事件" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "多机制因果关系", "临床意义", "病程与人群外推" ], "important_limits": [ "不能直接外推所有痴呆、晚期疾病、症状前人群；样本91.5%为白人。", "相对减慢22.3%不是记忆恢复率或每个患者受益幅度。", "治疗相关归因为试验判断；总死亡与相关死亡不同；获益须与风险和监测负担权衡。", "存在存活者/选择偏差、未测混杂，分析为探索性且未控制多重性；与原试验同数据组。", "本链深入donanemab，未把打不开的lecanemab原文声称已读；不作个人用药建议。", "Source identity, official abstract and lawful institutional reprint located; full original efficacy/harms text remains incompletely read. Original full Methods/Results/harms table still needed No full Supplementary Appendix or protocol audit", "随机脱落等假设和跨阶段差异仍可能影响结论；不能仅由此证明长期因果效应为零、机制为安慰剂，或取消短期随机效应。" ], "epistemic_mode": "经验研究：部分病程修饰，完整机制与持久保护未定", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "LS04-S1", "title": "Donanemab in Early Symptomatic Alzheimer Disease: The TRAILBLAZER-ALZ2 Randomized Clinical Trial", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10352931/", "source_version": "JAMA330,512–527; published2023-07-17", "date": "2023-07-17", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Methods Trial Design and Participants, Randomization, Statistical Analysis", "Results Table2 primary outcome; Table3 harms and footnotes", "Discussion Limitations" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "TRAILBLAZER_ALZ2" }, { "source_node_id": "LS04-S2", "title": "Donanemab in early symptomatic Alzheimer’s disease: results from the TRAILBLAZER-ALZ2 long-term extension", "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12869028/", "source_version": "Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer Disease13(2),100446; published2025-12-01", "date": "2025-12-01", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "2.1 Trial design; 2.3 External ADNI control cohort", "3.1 Participants; 4 Discussion final limitation paragraphs" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "TRAILBLAZER_ALZ2" }, { "source_node_id": "LS04-V05-S1", "title": "Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease", "url": "https://digitalcommons.wustl.edu/oa_4/2191/", "source_version": "NEJM388:9–21(2023),online2022-11-29; publisher Notable Articles2023 anthology contains original abstract page9 and research summary, not whole13-page trial", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Publisher abstract and indexed Discussion limitations; Notable Articles2023 physical PDFpp.65–66 (anthology61–62)", "Washington University permission/reprint metadata" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Original full Methods/Results/harms table still needed", "No full Supplementary Appendix or protocol audit" ], "independence_group": "LS04_VERSION_FAMILY_SHARED_INPUT" }, { "source_node_id": "LS04-V05-S2", "title": "Comparison of double-blind and open-label decline rates in lecanemab and donanemab trials in Alzheimer’s disease", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC13475089/fullTextXML", "source_version": "BMJ Neurology Open 8(2), e001649 (2026); original deposited full XML PMC13475089", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Methods: Overview of simulation framework; Trial populations; Data extraction and calibration; Statistical analysis", "Results: Comparison of DB and OLE slopes in lecanemab and donanemab; Figure 1 and 2 captions", "Discussion: limitations paragraph beginning One of the primary limitations" ], "not_reviewed": [ "No individual trial data obtained", "Supplemental code not rerun", "Not new randomized evidence; expert review pending" ], "independence_group": "CLARITY_AD_AND_TRAILBLAZER_REANALYSIS_SHARED_AGGREGATE_INPUTS" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "编辑判断：局部病程修饰有RCT支持，症状前、持久临床净收益和多机制解释仍需专门验证。", "如何在症状前识别可干预机制，并实现持续的认知与功能保护？" ], "original_field": "生命科学与医学", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "神经退行的根本干预", "current_status": "症状前识别并长期保护认知功能，兼顾风险与实际生活获益。", "limits": "不能直接外推所有痴呆、晚期疾病、症状前人群；样本91.5%为白人。 相对减慢22.3%不是记忆恢复率或每个患者受益幅度。 治疗相关归因为试验判断；总死亡与相关死亡不同；获益须与风险和监测负担权衡。 存在存活者/选择偏差、未测混杂，分析为探索性且未控制多重性；与原试验同数据组。 本链深入donanemab，未把打不开的lecanemab原文声称已读；不作个人用药建议。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "LS04", "title": "神经退行的根本干预", "domain": "生命与医学", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "早期阿尔茨海默病试验中，两组都平均恶化，用药组较慢，同时存在重要安全风险。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-C4" ], "evidence_ids": [ "LS04-E1", "LS04-E2", "LS04-E3", "LS04-E4" ], "source_ids": [ "LS04-S1", "LS04-S2" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "能否在更早阶段获得持续、患者重视的认知与功能净收益？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "LS04-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "更长随机对照、功能结局、风险负担及多机制追踪。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "LS04-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "恶化减慢不是记忆恢复；外部历史对照不能自动延续随机化。", "node_ids": [ "LS04-L1", "LS04-L2", "LS04-L3", "LS04-L4", "LS04-L5", "LS04-V05-L1", "LS04-V05-L2" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "向下的两条终点箭头与风险栏", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "早期阿尔茨海默病试验中，两组都平均恶化，用药组较慢，同时存在重要安全风险。 能否在更早阶段获得持续、患者重视的认知与功能净收益？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "LS04-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "固定病程阶段与终点", "proposed_artifact": "人群测量卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS04-Q1", "LS04-C1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS04-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "并列量表、日常功能与风险", "proposed_artifact": "净收益证据板", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS04-Q1", "LS04-C1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS04-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "保留可解释的长期比较", "proposed_artifact": "随访设计", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS04-Q1", "LS04-C1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS04-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "检验更早干预与机制", "proposed_artifact": "限定适用结论", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS04-Q1", "LS04-C1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "LS04", "question_id": "LS04-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "LS04-C1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-C4", "LS04-C5", "LS04-V05-C1" ], "all_source_ids": [ "LS04-S1", "LS04-S2", "LS04-V05-S1", "LS04-V05-S2" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "LS04-L1", "LS04-L2", "LS04-L3", "LS04-L4", "LS04-L5", "LS04-V05-L1", "LS04-V05-L2" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 2, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "LS04-G01", "status": "partial", "target": "Read original lecanemab trial NEJMoa2212948 relevant efficacy and harms passages", "residual_limits": [ "Original full Methods/Results/harms table still needed", "No full Supplementary Appendix or protocol audit" ], "exact_needed_source": { "source": "Complete original Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease, DOI10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "detail": "Full Methods, efficacy Results and harms table; publisher anthology abstract/research-summary is not the full13-page trial." }, "audit_disposition": "pass_partial_disposition" }, { "id": "LS04-G02", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Read 2026 BMJ extension reanalysis e001649", "residual_limits": [ "No individual trial data obtained", "Supplemental code not rerun", "Not new randomized evidence; expert review pending" ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" } ] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "LS04-C1", "label": "试验：选定早期AD人群", "text": "1736人随机试验纳入60–85岁、MCI/轻度痴呆且PET有淀粉样蛋白和tau证据的人群。", "scope": "Donanemab原RCT与同队列延长观察，保持LS04问题；非全部神经退行病综述。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS04-P1", "label": "试验：选定早期AD人群：条件", "text": "MMSE20–28，排除若干出血/水肿影像高风险表现。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods Trial Design and Participants, paragraphs1–3; Results participant flow", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS04-L1", "label": "试验：选定早期AD人群：限制", "text": "不能直接外推所有痴呆、晚期疾病、症状前人群；样本91.5%为白人。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods Trial Design and Participants, paragraphs1–3; Results participant flow", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS04-E1", "label": "试验：选定早期AD人群：原文依据", "text": "入组方法同时限定年龄、临床阶段、PET和MRI标准。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Methods Trial Design and Participants, paragraphs1–3; Results participant flow", "fulltextUrl": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10352931/", "sourceVersion": "JAMA330,512–527; published2023-07-17" } ] }, { "id": "LS04-C2", "label": "认知功能：平均恶化减慢", "text": "合并tau人群76周iADRS变化为−10.19对−13.11；组间差2.92，95%CI[1.51,4.33]。", "scope": "Donanemab原RCT与同队列延长观察，保持LS04问题；非全部神经退行病综述。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS04-P2", "label": "认知功能：平均恶化减慢：条件", "text": "iADRS低分更差，双方平均均恶化；模型调整后的组间估计。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Results Primary Outcome, Table2 NCS2 combined population; Fig.2", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS04-L2", "label": "认知功能：平均恶化减慢：限制", "text": "相对减慢22.3%不是记忆恢复率或每个患者受益幅度。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Results Primary Outcome, Table2 NCS2 combined population; Fig.2", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS04-E2", "label": "认知功能：平均恶化减慢：原文依据", "text": "Table2合并tau人群NCS2行列组均变化及组间差。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Results Primary Outcome, Table2 NCS2 combined population; Fig.2", "fulltextUrl": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10352931/", "sourceVersion": "JAMA330,512–527; published2023-07-17" } ] }, { "id": "LS04-C3", "label": "危害：ARIA须同列", "text": "安全人群ARIA-E为205/853（24.0%）对18/874（2.1%）；研究判定治疗相关死亡3例对1例。", "scope": "Donanemab原RCT与同队列延长观察，保持LS04问题；非全部神经退行病综述。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS04-P3", "label": "危害：ARIA须同列：条件", "text": "采用MRI/事件簇定义，区别于治疗期AE编码行的17例。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Table3 Overview of ARIA rows and Death considered related row; footnotes a,d,g,i", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS04-L3", "label": "危害：ARIA须同列：限制", "text": "治疗相关归因为试验判断；总死亡与相关死亡不同；获益须与风险和监测负担权衡。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Table3 Overview of ARIA rows and Death considered related row; footnotes a,d,g,i", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS04-E3", "label": "危害：ARIA须同列：原文依据", "text": "Table3的ARIA总览、治疗相关死亡行及脚注界定安全分母。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Table3 Overview of ARIA rows and Death considered related row; footnotes a,d,g,i", "fulltextUrl": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10352931/", "sourceVersion": "JAMA330,512–527; published2023-07-17" } ] }, { "id": "LS04-C4", "label": "延长观察：没有内部未治疗对照", "text": "2025延长研究提供三年观察，但原安慰剂组开始用药，因此使用外部ADNI比较。", "scope": "Donanemab原RCT与同队列延长观察，保持LS04问题；非全部神经退行病综述。", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立重复、外部验证或更正改变结果。", "sources": [ "LS04-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS04-P4", "label": "延长观察：没有内部未治疗对照：条件", "text": "延长阶段仍保留盲法；外部对照加权不能自动恢复随机化。", "preciseLocator": "S2 2.1 Trial design; 2.3 External ADNI control cohort; 4 Discussion final3 paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS04-L4", "label": "延长观察：没有内部未治疗对照：限制", "text": "存在存活者/选择偏差、未测混杂，分析为探索性且未控制多重性；与原试验同数据组。", "preciseLocator": "S2 2.1 Trial design; 2.3 External ADNI control cohort; 4 Discussion final3 paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS04-E4", "label": "延长观察：没有内部未治疗对照：原文依据", "text": "延长研究Methods2.3明示没有内部安慰剂比较。", "preciseLocator": "S2 2.1 Trial design; 2.3 External ADNI control cohort; 4 Discussion final3 paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12869028/", "sourceVersion": "Journal of Prevention of Alzheimer Disease13(2),100446; published2025-12-01" } ] }, { "id": "LS04-C5", "label": "编辑结论：长期保护须更强设计", "text": "编辑判断：局部病程修饰有RCT支持，症状前、持久临床净收益和多机制解释仍需专门验证。", "scope": "Donanemab原RCT与同队列延长观察，保持LS04问题；非全部神经退行病综述。", "status": "editorial_assessment", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "有合适同期比较的长期认知功能和生活质量结局，预防试验及多样人群风险评估。", "sources": [ "LS04-S1", "LS04-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS04-P5", "label": "编辑结论：长期保护须更强设计：条件", "text": "量表效应、日常功能、治疗风险、病程阶段和随访设计分开。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Table2–3 and Limitations; S2 2.3 and Discussion limitation paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS04-L5", "label": "编辑结论：长期保护须更强设计：限制", "text": "本链深入donanemab，未把打不开的lecanemab原文声称已读；不作个人用药建议。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Table2–3 and Limitations; S2 2.3 and Discussion limitation paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS04-E5", "label": "编辑结论：长期保护须更强设计：原文依据", "text": "原RCT与延长研究分别约束短期随机效应和长期外推。", "preciseLocator": "S1 Table2–3 and Limitations; S2 2.3 and Discussion limitation paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10352931/", "sourceVersion": "JAMA330,512–527; published2023-07-17" } ] }, { "id": "LS04-V05-C1", "label": "延长研究的依赖性重分析", "text": "2026重分析质疑以历史对照解释开放延长期递增获益；其依据是已发表汇总轨迹的模拟校准和阶段斜率比较。", "scope": "Only named passages and source versions; no replication or expert review.", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "Author correction, independent validation, missing source recovery or expert review changes the scoped interpretation.", "sources": [ "LS04-V05-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LS04-V05-P1", "label": "延长研究的依赖性重分析：条件", "text": "模拟个体数据不是申办方原始个体数据；比较双盲与开放阶段，另有汇总观察斜率分析。", "preciseLocator": "Methods: Overview of simulation framework; Trial populations; Data extraction and calibration; Statistical analysis; Results: Comparison of DB and OLE slopes in lecanemab and donanemab; Figure 1 and 2 captions; Discussion: limitations paragraph beginning One of the primary limitations", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LS04-V05-L2", "label": "延长研究的依赖性重分析：限制", "text": "随机脱落等假设和跨阶段差异仍可能影响结论；不能仅由此证明长期因果效应为零、机制为安慰剂，或取消短期随机效应。", "preciseLocator": "Methods: Overview of simulation framework; Trial populations; Data extraction and calibration; Statistical analysis; Results: Comparison of DB and OLE slopes in lecanemab and donanemab; Figure 1 and 2 captions; Discussion: limitations paragraph beginning One of the primary limitations", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LS04-V05-E1", "label": "延长研究的依赖性重分析：原文依据", "text": "Authors fit simulations to published aggregate trajectories and digitized figures, and separately compare aggregate observed slopes. They report faster open-label than double-blind treated-group decline and challenge increasing-benefit claims based on historical untreated cohorts. Their simulated participant records are not sponsor individual-level observations; random attrition and uncertain within-person correlation are stated limitations. Cross-phase slope comparison lacks a contemporaneous untreated randomized extension control and cannot itself establish no causal long-term benefit or prove a placebo mechanism.", "preciseLocator": "Methods: Overview of simulation framework; Trial populations; Data extraction and calibration; Statistical analysis; Results: Comparison of DB and OLE slopes in lecanemab and donanemab; Figure 1 and 2 captions; Discussion: limitations paragraph beginning One of the primary limitations", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC13475089/fullTextXML", "sourceVersion": "BMJ Neurology Open 8(2), e001649 (2026); original deposited full XML PMC13475089" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "LS04", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮2项资料目标；1项仍有缺口", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及2个有界资料目标：1项指定资料已取得并核对，1项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "仑卡奈单抗原始试验的疗效与伤害段落", "status": "partial", "gap": [ "仍需完整 Methods、Results 与伤害表。", "尚未完整核查补充附录或试验方案。" ] }, { "item": "2026 年 BMJ 对开放延长期轨迹的再分析", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "未取得个体试验数据，未运行补充代码。", "该研究不构成新随机证据；领域专家审阅待开展。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "LS04-C1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-C4", "LS04-C5", "LS04-V05-C1" ], "limitation_ids": [ "LS04-L1", "LS04-L2", "LS04-L3", "LS04-L4", "LS04-L5", "LS04-V05-L1", "LS04-V05-L2" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "LS04-G01", "LS04-G02" ] }, "updates": [ { "gap_id": "LS04-G01", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "scope": "Read original lecanemab trial NEJMoa2212948 relevant efficacy and harms passages", "actual_access_level": "原NEJM与许可机构PDF直达403；官方索引Safety及Table3逐行文本可读；仍未取得连续13页全文", "version_verified": "NEJM388:9–21(2023)，卷期2023-01-05，在线2022-11-29。", "supported_claims": [ "官方索引Table3安全性人群898/897：严重不良事件126/101，停药62/26；ARIA-E113/15，症状性ARIA-E25/0；比例分别14.0%/11.3%、6.9%/2.9%、12.6%/1.7%、2.8%/0%。", "脚注注明ARIA经MRI中央复核，包含双盲干预期后的事件；症状性ARIA-H并发ARIA-E计入ARIA-E。不能把不同不良事件类别简单相加。" ], "precise_locators": [ { "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "locator": "Safety；Table3 Overall、ARIA-E、Symptomatic ARIA-E行", "access": "publisher-indexed table text, not rendered PDF" }, { "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block", "locator": "Table3脚注及其后Safety段落", "access": "publisher-indexed text" }, { "url": "https://digitalcommons.wustl.edu/oa_4/2191/", "locator": "出版/许可转载记录", "access": "institution metadata" } ], "remaining_uncertainty": [ "连续Methods/Results全文、表格视觉核对、原Supplementary Appendix与protocol仍缺；资料缺口继续partial。", "18个月组均值差异不等于个体获益或长期治愈；旧试验没有相关死亡不能外推以后无致死风险。" ], "practical_next_research_test": "取得连续原文后复核ITT/mITT、缺失值敏感性和表3脚注；分别列示核心随机期与开放延长期的人时、ARIA及出血，按APOE和抗凝/溶栓预先分层，避免混合分母。", "search_attempts": [ { "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "result": "403" }, { "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "result": "direct open失败；search索引提供Safety/Table3" }, { "url": "https://digitalcommons.wustl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3197&context=oa_4", "result": "urllib403" }, { "query": "NEJMoa2212948 pdf site:edu; NEJM correction/erratum", "result": "未取得连续原文或原NEJM更正通知" } ], "newer_versions_or_corrections": "发现2024安全性延长随访及其更正，属于另一篇论文，不能代替原NEJM全文：10.1186/s13195-024-01441-8及10.1186/s13195-024-01507-7。前者摘要报告OLE九例死亡、四例被认为可能与治疗有关；后者将Table2 ApoE携带者复发ARIA-E由11.7%更正为3.8%，并修订其他标注。", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change; no_independent_replication", "status_reason": "指定连续原文或补充材料尚未取得；新增索引段落单列，不将检索完成算作原文缺口解决。", "finding": "官方索引Table3以下数字顺序均为lecanemab/安慰剂。安全性人群898/897：严重不良事件126/101，停药62/26；ARIA-E113/15，症状性ARIA-E25/0；比例分别14.0%/11.3%、6.9%/2.9%、12.6%/1.7%、2.8%/0%。脚注注明ARIA经MRI中央复核，包含双盲干预期后的事件；症状性ARIA-H并发ARIA-E计入ARIA-E。不能把不同不良事件类别简单相加。 另有2024年5月10日延长随访及7月10日更正：其ApoE携带者复发ARIA-E由11.7%改为3.8%。这是另一篇后续论文的更正，不是2023年NEJM原试验更正。", "reading_extent": [ "原NEJM与许可机构PDF直达403；官方索引Safety及Table3逐行文本可读；仍未取得连续13页全文" ], "sources": [ { "title": "LS04-G01 Safety；Table3 Overall、ARIA-E、Symptomatic ARIA-E行", "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "locator": "Safety；Table3 Overall、ARIA-E、Symptomatic ARIA-E行", "access": "publisher-indexed table text, not rendered PDF" }, { "title": "LS04-G01 Table3脚注及其后Safety段落", "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block", "locator": "Table3脚注及其后Safety段落", "access": "publisher-indexed text" }, { "title": "LS04-G01 出版/许可转载记录", "url": "https://digitalcommons.wustl.edu/oa_4/2191/", "locator": "出版/许可转载记录", "access": "institution metadata" }, { "title": "Updated safety results (2024-05-10)", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13195-024-01441-8", "locator": "Abstract, Results", "access": "publisher full HTML available; abstract scoped read" }, { "title": "Correction (2024-07-10)", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13195-024-01507-7", "locator": "Correction bullet list, Table2/5 and Supplementary TableS4", "access": "publisher HTML correction statement read" } ], "remaining_gap": "连续Methods/Results全文、表格视觉核对、原Supplementary Appendix与protocol仍缺；资料缺口继续partial。18个月组均值差异不等于个体获益或长期治愈；旧试验没有相关死亡不能外推以后无致死风险。", "next_action": "取得连续原文后复核ITT/mITT、缺失值敏感性和表3脚注；分别列示核心随机期与开放延长期的人时、ARIA及出血，按APOE和抗凝/溶栓预先分层，避免混合分母。", "title": "lecanemab原随机试验", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" } ] }, { "id": "LS05", "field": "生命与医学", "title": "从化学到可进化生命", "known_core": "本卡已核查的限定结果与论证：QT45在分开的反应中合成自身互补链与正链；72天产率分别0.24%和0.17%。 正链合成加入指定六核苷酸底物，并经历一次pH–加热–冷冻循环以促进链分离。 随机三联体池复制互补链时，每核苷酸保真度94.1%，完全正确的全长读段只有10.9%。 2024研究的高保真RNA聚合酶能维持锤头核酶八轮选择，但轮间含逆转录、PCR和转录。", "frontier_question": "能否从可信的前生命原料与能量来源，连续产生可自主维持、复制并进化的系统？", "evidence_needed": [ "把底物活化、复制、链分离、区室化与能量供给接成持续循环", "在无需实验者反复补救的条件下展示多代遗传与选择", "用地质约束比较不同可行路径，而非只证明单一步骤可行" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "历史不可完全重演", "机制整合缺口", "可实现性与自然发生率" ], "important_limits": "不是同一反应中自行闭合、多代自持复制。 不应把受控补救与底物供给省去后称为自主生命。 高每位点正确率不能直接替代全长正确率；作者仍要求提高效率/保真度以自持。 展示RNA催化遗传选择，不是无蛋白、无干预的自主达尔文系统。 实验可能性不证明早期地球实际历史；两个实验不是同一完整系统。", "epistemic_mode": "经验研究与历史重建交界", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "LS05-S1", "title": "A small polymerase ribozyme that can synthesize itself and its complementary strand", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC7618777/fullTextXML", "source_version": "PMC7618777 author manuscript of Science doi10.1126/science.adt2760; publication2026-02-12", "date": "2026-02-12", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "QT: a new small ribozyme class", "Ribozyme-catalyzed synthesis of its complementary strand and of itself", "Fig.4 caption; Discussion" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "QT45_GIANNI2026" }, { "source_node_id": "LS05-S2", "title": "RNA-catalyzed evolution of catalytic RNA", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC10945747/fullTextXML", "source_version": "PNAS121,e2321592121; publication2024-03-04; issue2024-03-12", "date": "2024-03-04", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Results RNA-Catalyzed Evolution of Hammerhead Ribozymes", "Sequence Changes Over the Course of Evolution; Fig.1D,Fig.2", "Biochemical Properties of the Evolved Hammerhead Ribozymes" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "PNAS2024_HAMMERHEAD_EVOLUTION" } ], "frontier_detail": "持续自主复制、遗传进化、能量与区室整合，以及实际生命起源历史。", "original_field": "生命科学与医学／化学", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "从化学到可进化生命", "current_status": "截至2026-10-04，核对出0.24%/0.17%产率、一次链分离辅助和全长正确率；RNA选择实验仍有轮间蛋白质酶步骤。 领域专家复核待完成。", "limits": "不是同一反应中自行闭合、多代自持复制。 不应把受控补救与底物供给省去后称为自主生命。 高每位点正确率不能直接替代全长正确率；作者仍要求提高效率/保真度以自持。 展示RNA催化遗传选择，不是无蛋白、无干预的自主达尔文系统。 实验可能性不证明早期地球实际历史；两个实验不是同一完整系统。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "primary_passages_checked", "expert_review": "pending", "visual": { "id": "LS05", "title": "从化学到可进化生命", "domain": "生命与医学", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical", "historical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "实验已实现 RNA 复制与选择的若干部件，但仍依赖分步反应或实验者帮助。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "LS05-C1", "LS05-C2", "LS05-C4" ], "evidence_ids": [ "LS05-E1", "LS05-E2", "LS05-E4" ], "source_ids": [ "LS05-S1", "LS05-S2" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "复制、能量和区室能否持续自持？早期地球实际走过哪条路径？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "LS05-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "无需反复补救的多代循环，并结合地质约束比较历史路径。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "LS05-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "单步可行不等于自主生命；实验能发生不证明历史确曾发生。", "node_ids": [ "LS05-L1", "LS05-L2", "LS05-L3", "LS05-L4", "LS05-L5" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "尚未闭合的复制循环", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "实验已实现 RNA 复制与选择的若干部件，但仍依赖分步反应或实验者帮助。 复制、能量和区室能否持续自持？早期地球实际走过哪条路径？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "LS05-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "列清底物与人为补救", "proposed_artifact": "反应账本", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS05-Q1", "LS05-C1", "LS05-C2", "LS05-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS05-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "接通复制、分离与供能", "proposed_artifact": "集成循环", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "LS05-Q1", "LS05-C1", "LS05-C2", "LS05-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "LS05-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "检验多代遗传和选择", "proposed_artifact": "自持运行记录", 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7,615, published 2026-03-31" } ] }, { "id": "ES01-C4", "label": "历史低云反馈可异号", "text": "Cesana–Arouf重建的热带低云覆盖在1979–2025增约0.18±0.07个百分点/十年，历史有效辐射响应为−0.79±0.30 W m⁻² K⁻¹。", "scope": "35°S–35°N海洋及所列期间；这里的反馈不是平衡态反馈。", "status": "source_reported_scoped_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "原文更正、独立复算或专家对所列前提与推断的审查。", "sources": [ "ES01-S3" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES01-P4", "label": "历史低云反馈可异号：前提", "text": "35°S–35°N海洋及所列期间；这里的反馈不是平衡态反馈。", "preciseLocator": "§3.1 Fig.1 trend paragraph; Fig.2 discussion giving historical feedback; §2 definition paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES01-L4", "label": "历史低云反馈可异号：边界", "text": "早期卫星记录更不确定；选2001以后窗口会明显改变幅度，不能直接替代长期ECS。", "preciseLocator": "§3.1 Fig.1 trend paragraph; Fig.2 discussion giving historical feedback; §2 definition paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES01-E4", "label": "历史低云反馈可异号：原文依据", "text": "用相同期间全球温度趋势归一化，并结合卫星与云控制因子重建。", "preciseLocator": "§3.1 Fig.1 trend paragraph; Fig.2 discussion giving historical feedback; §2 definition paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026GL124158", "sourceVersion": "Geophysical Research Letters, first published 2026-07-09" } ] }, { "id": "ES01-C5", "label": "正负结果不先验互相否定", "text": "历史负反馈与CO₂理想化实验中的正反馈对应不同海温空间格局；作者将历史格局延续的低敏感度推断明确设为条件测试。", "scope": "只有未来持续类似历史海温格局，才能照搬该历史有效响应。", "status": "editorial_assessment_pending_review", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "原文更正、独立复算或专家对所列前提与推断的审查。", "sources": [ "ES01-S3" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES01-P5", "label": "正负结果不先验互相否定：前提", "text": "只有未来持续类似历史海温格局，才能照搬该历史有效响应。", "preciseLocator": "§2 historical/model definitions; §3.2 pattern-effect paragraphs; §3.3 paragraph beginning Given this model inability", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES01-L5", "label": "正负结果不先验互相否定：边界", "text": "不能由近期负低云项推翻温室气体增暖；也不能由正模型项否认历史观测差异。", "preciseLocator": "§2 historical/model definitions; §3.2 pattern-effect paragraphs; §3.3 paragraph beginning Given this model inability", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES01-E5", "label": "正负结果不先验互相否定：原文依据", "text": "东太平洋温度梯度及逆温强度变化在历史与强迫实验不同。", "preciseLocator": "§2 historical/model definitions; §3.2 pattern-effect paragraphs; §3.3 paragraph beginning Given this model inability", "fulltextUrl": "https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2026GL124158", "sourceVersion": "Geophysical Research Letters, first published 2026-07-09" } ] }, { "id": "ES01-C6", "label": "区域边界仍需独立证据", "text": "本链收窄云与气溶胶反馈的条件，却没有建立地区降水、极端事件或海洋环流的统一高精度预测。", "scope": "这是本卡的明确覆盖边界，不声称所有区域机制未知。", "status": "editorial_assessment_pending_review", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "原文更正、独立复算或专家对所列前提与推断的审查。", "sources": [ "ES01-S1", "ES01-S2", "ES01-S3" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES01-P6", "label": "区域边界仍需独立证据：前提", "text": "这是本卡的明确覆盖边界，不声称所有区域机制未知。", "preciseLocator": "IPCC Box7.1 definition; Zelinka Fig.3 regional contrasts; Cesana §3.2 pattern effect", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES01-L6", "label": "区域边界仍需独立证据：边界", "text": "需另接区域过程研究、内部变率及情景条件；本轮不把此缺口当作气候基本机制不成立。", "preciseLocator": "IPCC Box7.1 definition; Zelinka Fig.3 regional contrasts; Cesana §3.2 pattern effect", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES01-E6", "label": "区域边界仍需独立证据：原文依据", "text": "全球平衡量、局地统计关系与区域未来状态是不同对象。", "preciseLocator": "IPCC Box7.1 definition; Zelinka Fig.3 regional contrasts; Cesana §3.2 pattern effect", "fulltextUrl": "https://lib.icimod.org/records/npaw6-nkg09/files/IPCC_AR6_WGI_Chapter07.pdf?download=1", "sourceVersion": "Final typeset Chapter 7, printed pp.923–1054; ICIMOD deposited copy, not FOD/SOD" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "ES01", "coverage_status": "specified_primary_passages_checked", "coverage_label": "指定原文已核", "coverage_note": "合法存档的IPCC最终章与所列新研究已读；仅覆盖反馈/云的限定链，地区降水和极端事件不在本链。", "chain_review_status": "scoped_claims_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "official IPCC host", "status": "HTML/PDF fetch failures and direct HTTP403", "resolution": "legitimate ICIMOD deposited final typeset chapter read with pdftotext; checksum recorded in log" }, { "item": "regional precipitation/extremes and ocean mechanisms", "status": "not_in_this_scoped_chain", "impact": "No claim of comprehensive coverage of original broad question." } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "ES01-C1", "ES01-C2", "ES01-C3", "ES01-C4" ], "limitation_ids": [ "ES01-L1", "ES01-L2", "ES01-L3", "ES01-L4", "ES01-L5", "ES01-L6" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "ES02", "field": "地球与生态", "title": "AMOC 与气候临界点", "known_core": [ "CESM固定工业前辐射强迫、逐年增加淡水输入时，AMOC在约1750模型年后迅速衰减。", "作者把南边界淡水输运最小值作为预警，但明确现有再分析不能可靠估计距临界点多远。", "研究分析34个四倍CO₂试验，淡水0.3 Sv试验只有7个模型；各取一名集合成员。", "更正明确本世纪“不太可能崩溃”结论的定义为低于6 Sv，并把现实情景PMOC改为不形成或较弱。", "CESM背景加淡水0.45 Sv时，慢CO₂增加仍在+5.5°C稳定；较快路径约+2°C开始崩溃。", "IPCC AR6认为AMOC很可能在21世纪衰弱，但对2100年前不会突变只有中等信心，对模型预测的时点和幅度信心较低。" ], "frontier_question": "能否给出经观测约束、稳健跨模型的 AMOC 失稳条件与预警，而非一个脆弱的倒计时？", "evidence_needed": [ "延长直接环流、盐度、淡水输运及南大洋观测", "校验再分析和代理指标能否真实反映稳定性", "比较含冰融水、涡旋、南大洋及太平洋反馈的模型和临界定义" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "结构与代理不确定性", "阈值与尾部风险", "情景依赖" ], "important_limits": [ "模型年不是日历预测；约0.6 Sv强迫与模式偏差必须保留。", "不可把试验中提前约25年直接加到今天，或视为现实崩溃年份。", "多模型共享结构/偏差；不是独立同条件复制2024长时逐渐强迫。", "不是“零风险”；不能混用低于6 Sv、归零或反转定义。", "不是地球统一2°C门槛；背景偏差校正、状态和路径均决定结论。", "不制造确定倒计时，也不把未崩溃模型读成现实安全保证；非全领域系统综述。", "不是2026更新或安全保证；后续研究不能仅凭新旧日期视为推翻或替代。", "2024准平衡FovS预警不能无条件外推到快速瞬变路径；必须匹配背景状态、强迫速度及“崩溃”定义。" ], "epistemic_mode": "经验研究：高后果风险，门槛仍有争议", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "ES02-S1", "title": "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC10857529/fullTextXML", "source_version": "Science Advances2024 doi10.1126/sciadv.adk1189; PMC current fulltext retrieved2026-10-04", "date": "2024-02-09", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Results AMOC collapse; Physics-based early warning indicator", "Discussion paragraphs3–5; Methods Climate model simulations" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "CESM_HOSING_VANWESTEN_LINEAGE" }, { "source_node_id": "ES02-S2", "title": "Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11864975/fullTextXML", "source_version": "Nature638,987–994; published2025-02-26; corrected text includes2025-04-17 clarification", "date": "2025-04-17", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Experiments and AMOC upwelling pathways", "Future fate of the AMOC; Methods Models and experiments" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "BAKER_CMIP6_EXTREME34" }, { "source_node_id": "ES02-S3", "title": "Failure to track a stable AMOC state under rapid climate change", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-026-02730-w", "source_version": "Nature Climate Change VOR2026-08-13", "date": "2026-08-13", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Stable AMOC under extreme climate change; Fig.1", "Discussion; Methods Climate Model Simulations", "About this article; Rights and permissions" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "CESM_HOSING_VANWESTEN_LINEAGE" }, { "source_node_id": "ES02-S4", "title": "Author Correction: Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC12058520/fullTextXML", "source_version": "Correction2025-04-17, updated2025-06-04", "date": "2025-06-04", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "EuropePMC全文实质更正段落，包含6Sv、PMOC和颜色改正", "2025-06-04变更日期另在出版社完整索引文本核对" ], "not_reviewed": [ "raw data", "complete supplementary material" ], "independence_group": "BAKER_CMIP6_EXTREME34" }, { "source_node_id": "ES02-V05-S1", "title": "IPCC AR6 WGI第9章最终版", "url": "https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/F61263910A16BD9FDE86921E85E1E4D5/9781009157889c9_1211-1362.pdf/ocean-cryosphere-and-sea-level-change.pdf", "source_version": "AR6finalchapter;Cambridge2023online;DOI10.1017/9781009157896.011", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "printedpp.1236–1239 complete§9.2.3.1/Fig9.10caption" ], "not_reviewed": [ "wholechapter", "allcitedstudies", "postAR6evidence" ], "independence_group": "IPCC_AR6_ASSESSMENT_SYNTHESIS" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "编辑判断：模型崩溃与韧性结果未在同一强迫、时段和定义下互相推翻；现实门槛仍需观测约束。", "能否给出经观测约束、稳健跨模型的 AMOC 失稳条件与预警，而非一个脆弱的倒计时？" ], "original_field": "地球／气候／生态", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "AMOC 与气候临界点", "current_status": "经观测约束、稳健跨模型的真实AMOC失稳条件与可用预警。", "limits": "模型年不是日历预测；约0.6 Sv强迫与模式偏差必须保留。 不可把试验中提前约25年直接加到今天，或视为现实崩溃年份。 多模型共享结构/偏差；不是独立同条件复制2024长时逐渐强迫。 不是“零风险”；不能混用低于6 Sv、归零或反转定义。 不是地球统一2°C门槛；背景偏差校正、状态和路径均决定结论。 不制造确定倒计时，也不把未崩溃模型读成现实安全保证；非全领域系统综述。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "ES02", "title": "AMOC 与气候临界点", "domain": "地球与生态", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "不同模型强迫、背景状态和崩溃定义会产生不同 AMOC 结果。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "ES02-C1", "ES02-C3", "ES02-C4", "ES02-C5" ], "evidence_ids": [ "ES02-E1", "ES02-E3", "ES02-E4", "ES02-E5" ], "source_ids": [ "ES02-S1", "ES02-S2", "ES02-S4", "ES02-S3" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "现实失稳条件和可靠预警能否被观测约束？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "ES02-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "延长环流观测，检验代理指标，并对齐模型条件与临界定义。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "ES02-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "模型年不是日历年；不能画确定的现实崩溃倒计时。", "node_ids": [ "ES02-L1", "ES02-L2", "ES02-L3", "ES02-L4", "ES02-L5", "ES02-L6", "ES02-V05-L1", "ES02-V05-L2" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "不同坡度的试验轨道", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "不同模型强迫、背景状态和崩溃定义会产生不同 AMOC 结果。 现实失稳条件和可靠预警能否被观测约束？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "ES02-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "对齐强迫速度与崩溃定义", "proposed_artifact": "试验条件卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ES02-Q1", "ES02-C1", "ES02-C3", "ES02-C4", "ES02-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ES02-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "延长直接环流与淡水观测", "proposed_artifact": "观测序列", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ES02-Q1", "ES02-C1", "ES02-C3", "ES02-C4", "ES02-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ES02-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "验证预警对背景的依赖", "proposed_artifact": "代理校准", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ES02-Q1", "ES02-C1", "ES02-C3", "ES02-C4", "ES02-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ES02-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "跨模型检验门槛范围", "proposed_artifact": "不确定性说明", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ES02-Q1", "ES02-C1", "ES02-C3", "ES02-C4", "ES02-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "ES02", "question_id": "ES02-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "ES02-C1", "ES02-C2", "ES02-C3", "ES02-C4", "ES02-C5", "ES02-C6", "ES02-V05-C1" ], "all_source_ids": [ "ES02-S1", "ES02-S2", "ES02-S3", "ES02-S4", "ES02-V05-S1" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "ES02-L1", "ES02-L2", "ES02-L3", "ES02-L4", "ES02-L5", "ES02-L6", "ES02-V05-L1", "ES02-V05-L2" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 2, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "ES02-G01", "status": "partial", "target": "Identify exact 2024-02-23 Science Advances amendment and substantive change", "residual_limits": [ "Need authenticated publisher correction block and complete corrected sciadv.adk1189_sm.v2.pdf plus comparison againstv1. Crossmark current status does not erase observed old-SI clipping. 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"出版社2024-02-23更正原文及完整v2仍缺；v0.5旧SI裁切观察不算本轮重现。", "next_action": "取得v1/v2后对S3–S5逐图比较边界、轴标、图例及数值；先确定是否仅恢复裁切显示，再评价是否改变原主张。之后在同一强迫方案/同一终点上复算预警指标，不把准平衡结果推广到任意快速气候轨迹。", "conclusion_impact": "no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "取得v1/v2后对S3–S5逐图比较边界、轴标、图例及数值；先确定是否仅恢复裁切显示，再评价是否改变原主张。之后在同一强迫方案/同一终点上复算预警指标，不把准平衡结果推广到任意快速气候轨迹。", "new_material": [ "乌得勒支存档主文此次可下载，版本早于更正；SHA256 6a60ae7bec6421ce8a10bb47806c7390c84987cb496edb3742cceb3fb95ee2eb" ], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "ES02-S1", "ES02-C1", "ES02-C2" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "AMOC论文更正内容", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" } ] }, { "id": "ES03", "field": "地球与生态", "title": "生态系统的恢复与耦合", "known_core": [ "按该评估的操作框架，树木覆盖增加不足以单独证明森林景观恢复成功。", "该评估没有把生态系统服务付费视作已证明能在所有大景观同时提高生态与社会结果的办法。", "沿海与海洋恢复的物种存活观测只能覆盖部分终点，不能当作长期生态功能及社区收益的完整测量。", "此评估的权利路径包含应尊重的权利及治理安排，不能被压缩成单一生物多样性效果指标。", "该章节明确保留组合措施、分配公平和长期动态的知识缺口；跨元素潜在收益不是全面已测收益。", "The 2019 IPBES assessment reports broad biodiversity deterioration while recognizing increased material provisioning and declines in many regulating/non-material contributions; direct-driver importance differs between terrestrial/freshwater and marine systems." ], "frontier_question": "哪些干预组合能在具体地区恢复生态功能，并避免把损失转移到别处或别的人群？", "evidence_needed": [ "长期、跨生态区的对照与准实验监测", "同时观测种群、功能、食物网及社会分配效应", "把本地/原住民知识与可检验的生态数据共同纳入" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "复杂系统反馈", "空间外溢", "情境与价值权衡" ], "important_limits": [ "这是评估采用的多目标框架；不能由定义推出任何具体造林项目有效。", "评估章节不是支付措施的随机试验；没有重新计算所引研究的平均处理效应。", "这是原始评估对研究范围的诊断；本轮没有估计全球项目失败率。", "本卡陈述框架内容，不宣布该框架在所有法域有相同法律效力，也不代理权利主体同意。", "报告提出缺口是截至评估文献范围的判断；本轮狭窄更新检索不能证明之后没有任何解决案例。", "SPM is an original assessment synthesis, not independently rechecked underlying experiments. Only named SPM passages read; not whole assessment chapters or local causal restoration effects." ], "epistemic_mode": "经验预测与多目标决策交界", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "ES03-S1", "title": "IPBES Nexus Assessment, Chapter 5.1: Options for delivering sustainable approaches to biodiversity conservation, restoration and sustainable use", "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/18165236/files/2025%20IPBES_ASSESSMENT%20NEXUS%20%28CHAPTER%205_FULL%29_V2.pdf?download=1", "source_version": "2025 IPBES_ASSESSMENT NEXUS (CHAPTER 5_FULL)_V2.pdf; Chapter 5.1", "date": "V2 filename observed; exact file revision date not verified", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "5.1.3.5–5.1.3.7, pp.405–407", "5.1.3.9–5.1.3.10, pp.409–412", "5.1.4 pp.420–421", "5.1.5 pp.426–427", "5.1.6 opening p.428" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "IPBES_NEXUS_2024_CHAPTER5_SHARED_ASSESSMENT" }, { "source_node_id": "ES03-V05-S1", "title": "IPBES 2019 Global Assessment: Summary for Policymakers", "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/3553579/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf?download=1", "source_version": "Official IPBES assessment SPM, 2019, 60-page PDF; Zenodo record 3553579 version summary for policy makers; approved at IPBES-7 May 2019; record publication November 25, 2019", "date": "2019-11-25 Zenodo record publication; SPM approved May 2019", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Key messages A1–A5 and B/B1 pp.10–12", "background paragraph 10 p.28" ], "not_reviewed": [ "SPM is an original assessment synthesis, not independently rechecked underlying experiments. Only named SPM passages read; not whole assessment chapters or local causal restoration effects." ], "independence_group": "IPBES_GLOBAL_ASSESSMENT_2019_SPM" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "哪些地区的恢复组合真正改善生态功能和居民福利，代价如何分配，是否把损失转移到区域外？" ], "original_field": "地球／气候／生态", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "生态系统的恢复与耦合", "current_status": "哪些地区的恢复组合真正改善生态功能和居民福利，代价如何分配，是否把损失转移到区域外？", "limits": "这是评估采用的多目标框架；不能由定义推出任何具体造林项目有效。 评估章节不是支付措施的随机试验；没有重新计算所引研究的平均处理效应。 这是原始评估对研究范围的诊断；本轮没有估计全球项目失败率。 本卡陈述框架内容，不宣布该框架在所有法域有相同法律效力，也不代理权利主体同意。 报告提出缺口是截至评估文献范围的判断；本轮狭窄更新检索不能证明之后没有任何解决案例。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "ES03", "title": "生态系统的恢复与耦合", "domain": "地球与生态", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical", "normative_component" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "恢复评价同时涉及生态功能、社会结果和权利；树木更多并不足以验收全部目标。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "ES03-C1", "ES03-C3", "ES03-C4" ], "evidence_ids": [ "ES03-E1", "ES03-E3", "ES03-E4" ], "source_ids": [ "ES03-S1" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "哪些恢复组合有持续收益，谁获益、谁承担代价，是否转移了损失？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "ES03-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "长期生态与社会对照监测，以及当地知识和权利主体参与。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "ES03-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "评估框架不是某项目效果证明；生态指标不能替代权利判断。", "node_ids": [ "ES03-L1", "ES03-L2", "ES03-L3", "ES03-L4", "ES03-L5", "ES03-V05-L1" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "生态与生活并排的恢复窗", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "恢复评价同时涉及生态功能、社会结果和权利；树木更多并不足以验收全部目标。 哪些恢复组合有持续收益，谁获益、谁承担代价，是否转移了损失？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "ES03-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "共同明确生态、福利与权利目标", "proposed_artifact": "评价约定", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ES03-Q1", "ES03-C1", "ES03-C3", "ES03-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ES03-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "建立基线和比较地区", "proposed_artifact": "监测设计", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ES03-Q1", "ES03-C1", "ES03-C3", "ES03-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ES03-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "跟踪功能、分配与外溢", "proposed_artifact": "长期证据组", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ES03-Q1", "ES03-C1", "ES03-C3", "ES03-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ES03-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "共同解释收益与代价", "proposed_artifact": "多目标评价", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ES03-Q1", "ES03-C1", "ES03-C3", "ES03-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "ES03", "question_id": "ES03-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "ES03-C1", "ES03-C2", "ES03-C3", "ES03-C4", "ES03-C5", "ES03-V05-C1" ], "all_source_ids": [ "ES03-S1", "ES03-V05-S1" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "ES03-L1", "ES03-L2", "ES03-L3", "ES03-L4", "ES03-L5", "ES03-V05-L1" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 1, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "ES03-G01", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Check specified 2019 IPBES global trend claims against original assessment passages", "residual_limits": [ "SPM is an original assessment synthesis, not independently rechecked underlying experiments. Only named SPM passages read; not whole assessment chapters or local causal restoration effects." ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" } ] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "ES03-C1", "label": "恢复的目标不等于树冠增加", "text": "按该评估的操作框架，树木覆盖增加不足以单独证明森林景观恢复成功。", "scope": "Nexus章5.1对森林景观恢复的定义与评价", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "项目同时测得功能、福利与基线，或采用不同且明示的恢复目标。", "sources": [ "ES03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES03-P1", "label": "恢复的目标不等于树冠增加：必要前提", "text": "评判对象是退化景观的功能与福利，不只计种树或覆盖面积。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.5 Forest landscape restoration (B05), printed p.405, first three paragraphs and final trade-off paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES03-L1", "label": "恢复的目标不等于树冠增加：边界", "text": "这是评估采用的多目标框架；不能由定义推出任何具体造林项目有效。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.5 Forest landscape restoration (B05), printed p.405, first three paragraphs and final trade-off paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES03-E1", "label": "恢复的目标不等于树冠增加：原文依据", "text": "5.1.3.5将森林景观恢复界定为持续恢复生态功能、景观功能与人的福祉，并列社会和生态权衡。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.5 Forest landscape restoration (B05), printed p.405, first three paragraphs and final trade-off paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/18165236/files/2025%20IPBES_ASSESSMENT%20NEXUS%20%28CHAPTER%205_FULL%29_V2.pdf?download=1", "sourceVersion": "2025 IPBES_ASSESSMENT NEXUS (CHAPTER 5_FULL)_V2.pdf; Chapter 5.1" } ] }, { "id": "ES03-C2", "label": "支付机制仍有实施边界", "text": "该评估没有把生态系统服务付费视作已证明能在所有大景观同时提高生态与社会结果的办法。", "scope": "森林景观恢复融资、土地转换的章节综合", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "有长期可比较、多地点的生态和分配结果，可改变具体措施的判断。", "sources": [ "ES03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES03-P2", "label": "支付机制仍有实施边界：必要前提", "text": "双收益须在同一项目及受影响人群测量；融资工具与生态结果应分别验证。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.5, p.405, paragraph starting While many actors and column continuation on land conversion", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES03-L2", "label": "支付机制仍有实施边界：边界", "text": "评估章节不是支付措施的随机试验；没有重新计算所引研究的平均处理效应。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.5, p.405, paragraph starting While many actors and column continuation on land conversion", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES03-E2", "label": "支付机制仍有实施边界：原文依据", "text": "正文列支付森林生态系统服务作为融资方式，同时说明大尺度社会与生态双收益的证据有限，转用农业用地会涉及生产、进入权、土地权属和权力差异。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.5, p.405, paragraph starting While many actors and column continuation on land conversion", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/18165236/files/2025%20IPBES_ASSESSMENT%20NEXUS%20%28CHAPTER%205_FULL%29_V2.pdf?download=1", "sourceVersion": "2025 IPBES_ASSESSMENT NEXUS (CHAPTER 5_FULL)_V2.pdf; Chapter 5.1" } ] }, { "id": "ES03-C3", "label": "短期存活率不能替代功能", "text": "沿海与海洋恢复的物种存活观测只能覆盖部分终点，不能当作长期生态功能及社区收益的完整测量。", "scope": "章5.1.3.6所评沿海海洋恢复文献", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "多年功能、成本、失败与分配指标共同报告的项目评价。", "sources": [ "ES03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES03-P3", "label": "短期存活率不能替代功能：必要前提", "text": "恢复可历时数十年，气候驱动、物种生长和演替改变结果；多个终点需分别观测。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.6 Restoration of coastal and marine systems (B06), p.406, paragraphs starting New approaches and Ethical considerations", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES03-L3", "label": "短期存活率不能替代功能：边界", "text": "这是原始评估对研究范围的诊断；本轮没有估计全球项目失败率。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.6 Restoration of coastal and marine systems (B06), p.406, paragraphs starting New approaches and Ethical considerations", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES03-E3", "label": "短期存活率不能替代功能：原文依据", "text": "沿海海洋恢复段说明许多项目短期执行且只计物种存活，妨碍评价长期功能、社会经济收益和失败原因。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.6 Restoration of coastal and marine systems (B06), p.406, paragraphs starting New approaches and Ethical considerations", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/18165236/files/2025%20IPBES_ASSESSMENT%20NEXUS%20%28CHAPTER%205_FULL%29_V2.pdf?download=1", "sourceVersion": "2025 IPBES_ASSESSMENT NEXUS (CHAPTER 5_FULL)_V2.pdf; Chapter 5.1" } ] }, { "id": "ES03-C4", "label": "权利是治理评价的一部分", "text": "此评估的权利路径包含应尊重的权利及治理安排，不能被压缩成单一生物多样性效果指标。", "scope": "IPBES所述权利治理框架；非特定地区法律意见", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "当地权利主体、制度文本和实施评价可校验具体适用方式。", "sources": [ "ES03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES03-P4", "label": "权利是治理评价的一部分：必要前提", "text": "规范上的权利要求与经验上的保护效果是两种不同证成；参与不等于已认可权利。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.10 Rights-based approaches (B10), pp.411–412, opening three paragraphs and Figure 5.1.7 caption", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES03-L4", "label": "权利是治理评价的一部分：边界", "text": "本卡陈述框架内容，不宣布该框架在所有法域有相同法律效力，也不代理权利主体同意。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.10 Rights-based approaches (B10), pp.411–412, opening three paragraphs and Figure 5.1.7 caption", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES03-E4", "label": "权利是治理评价的一部分：原文依据", "text": "5.1.3.10区分程序性与实质性权利，并说明权利路径超越仅邀请参与；覆盖决策、管理、收益分享及领土归属。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.3.10 Rights-based approaches (B10), pp.411–412, opening three paragraphs and Figure 5.1.7 caption", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/18165236/files/2025%20IPBES_ASSESSMENT%20NEXUS%20%28CHAPTER%205_FULL%29_V2.pdf?download=1", "sourceVersion": "2025 IPBES_ASSESSMENT NEXUS (CHAPTER 5_FULL)_V2.pdf; Chapter 5.1" } ] }, { "id": "ES03-C5", "label": "多目标与长期结果仍缺数据", "text": "该章节明确保留组合措施、分配公平和长期动态的知识缺口；跨元素潜在收益不是全面已测收益。", "scope": "2024评估的V2章节及2026-10-04窄范围更新检查", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "可追踪多元素、跨边界和多年结果的独立评价及新综合评估。", "sources": [ "ES03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES03-P5", "label": "多目标与长期结果仍缺数据：必要前提", "text": "同一实施案例需同时记录多个结果、未显著和负面结果、劳动与社区成本。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.5 Knowledge gaps, pp.426–427; opening paragraph and paragraphs on underreporting, distributional equity, long-term monitoring and policy mixes", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES03-L5", "label": "多目标与长期结果仍缺数据：边界", "text": "报告提出缺口是截至评估文献范围的判断；本轮狭窄更新检索不能证明之后没有任何解决案例。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.5 Knowledge gaps, pp.426–427; opening paragraph and paragraphs on underreporting, distributional equity, long-term monitoring and policy mixes", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES03-E5", "label": "多目标与长期结果仍缺数据：原文依据", "text": "5.1.5指出多数研究只覆盖少数nexus元素，结构指标多于功能；食物、水和健康获取、负面结果、总成本与长期动态记录不足。", "preciseLocator": "5.1.5 Knowledge gaps, pp.426–427; opening paragraph and paragraphs on underreporting, distributional equity, long-term monitoring and policy mixes", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/18165236/files/2025%20IPBES_ASSESSMENT%20NEXUS%20%28CHAPTER%205_FULL%29_V2.pdf?download=1", "sourceVersion": "2025 IPBES_ASSESSMENT NEXUS (CHAPTER 5_FULL)_V2.pdf; Chapter 5.1" } ] }, { "id": "ES03-V05-C1", "label": "IPBES 2019 全球趋势及驱动因素", "text": "The 2019 IPBES assessment reports broad biodiversity deterioration while recognizing increased material provisioning and declines in many regulating/non-material contributions; direct-driver importance differs between terrestrial/freshwater and marine systems.", "scope": "IPBES 2019 global assessment SPM historical global trends and ecosystem-specific driver ranking; named SPM passages only.", "status": "source_reported_conditionally_supported", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "后续可比指标、评估更正或底层证据复核可修订趋势归纳；地方修复成效仍需独立地方证据。", "sources": [ "ES03-V05-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ES03-V05-P1", "label": "IPBES 2019 全球趋势及驱动因素：解释前提", "text": "Assessment-level synthesis with distinct biodiversity, ecosystem-service and contribution indicators; historical assessment scope, not a 2026 trend update.", "preciseLocator": "SPM printed pp.10–12 (PDF pp.12–14); background para.10 printed p.28 (PDF p.30)", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "ES03-V05-L1", "label": "IPBES 2019 全球趋势及驱动因素：边界", "text": "SPM is an original assessment synthesis, not independently rechecked underlying experiments. Only named SPM passages read; not whole assessment chapters or local causal restoration effects.", "preciseLocator": "SPM printed pp.10–12 (PDF pp.12–14); background para.10 printed p.28 (PDF p.30)", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ES03-V05-E1", "label": "IPBES 2019 全球趋势及驱动因素：原文依据", "text": "SPM A3 p.11 reports 14 of 18 assessed contribution categories declining since 1970 despite higher provisioning; A4/A5 pp.11–12 report widespread biodiversity decline with qualifications; B/B1 p.12 and background para.10 p.28 rank land-use change highest on land/freshwater and direct exploitation highest in oceans.", "preciseLocator": "SPM printed pp.10–12 (PDF pp.12–14); background para.10 printed p.28 (PDF p.30)", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/3553579/files/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers.pdf?download=1", "sourceVersion": "Official IPBES assessment SPM, 2019, 60-page PDF; Zenodo record 3553579 version summary for policy makers; approved at IPBES-7 May 2019; record publication November 25, 2019" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "ES03", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮1项指定资料已核", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及1个有界资料目标：1项指定资料已取得并核对，0项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "IPBES 2019 全球趋势的一手评估定位", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "这是原始评估综合，不是独立重查底层实验。", "仅读指定摘要段落，没有通读各章或检验本地恢复干预的因果效果。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "ES03-C1", "ES03-C2", "ES03-C3", "ES03-C4", "ES03-C5", "ES03-V05-C1" ], "limitation_ids": [ "ES03-L1", "ES03-L2", "ES03-L3", "ES03-L4", "ES03-L5", "ES03-V05-L1" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "ES03-G01" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "AG01", "field": "农业与兽医", "title": "多样化农业如何兼顾生态与吃得起", "known_core": [ "2024研究支持现实农场的措施—结果关联，不是对措施组合随机分配的因果估计。", "组合采用呈正向关联的同时，结论受结局覆盖和研究权重影响，不能理解为每一农场的保证收益。", "平均组合关联掩盖结果间权衡和景观异质性；更多多样化不能简单等同于所有目标同步改善。", "2026综合把时间维度纳入评价，提供长期收益的汇合线索；这不等于2026新增了一组数十年随机农场试验。", "14May2024更正版已直接核对：补入第21作者Aidee Guzman及作者贡献A.G.；未声明修改科学结果。", "SOFI2025估计2024年2.60十亿人无法负担健康膳食，国家最低健康膳食成本的全球均值为每人每日4.46PPP美元。" ], "frontier_question": "哪些管理组合在何种土壤、气候、劳动力和市场条件下，能持续改善生态、农民生计与膳食可负担性，代价又由谁承担？", "evidence_needed": [ "跨季节、多地点的农场试验与长期跟踪，记录组合措施、失败情况、劳动与投入成本", "结合可行的因果比较、机制测量和农民经验，检验不同土地规模、性别分工及土地权利下的效果", "把农场结果与流通、价格、收入和家庭膳食数据连接，检验收益是否传递给消费者与弱势家庭", "明确各方重视的生态、收入和营养目标，公开权衡，不预设一个唯一最优指标" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "情境与规模依赖", "组合措施的因果识别", "长期与系统反馈", "目标和分配权衡" ], "important_limits": [ "关联不等于无价值，也不能从非随机设计推断不存在因果效应。", "补充材料未逐表复算；正文说等权重后总体方向保留，不代表所有具体结果都稳定。", "所提劳动和现金作物面积机制主要是解释候选，未在本轮建立中介因果识别。", "长时段数据稀疏；不同底层研究可能重叠，已按作者规则去重但本轮未独立核对。", "这是从实际纳入指标得出的编辑边界，不能当作任何农业措施一定提高或降低食品价格的结论。", "Science指定SI仍未读；作者名单更正不能作为结果更稳健或独立重复证据。", "此为固定2025版估计，不能把跨版差异全当真实趋势；没有识别多样化农场措施经价格传给消费者的因果链。" ], "epistemic_mode": "田间与社会经验研究、系统分析和参与式目标权衡并列", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "AG01-S1", "title": "Joint environmental and social benefits from diversified agriculture", "url": "https://www.researchgate.net/publication/379572082_Joint_environmental_and_social_benefits_from_diversified_agriculture", "source_version": "Science 384:87–93, original 5 April 2024 publisher PDF text, before author-list correction", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Interdisciplinary and participatory data synthesis, pp.87–89", "More diversification strategies or practices are better, pp.89–90", "Maximizing win-wins, minimizing trade-offs, pp.91–92", "Role of landscape composition and Outlook, p.92" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Supplementary Materials tables S1–S13 and figures S1–S10", "raw farm records and R model rerun", "corrected author-list PDF not directly fetched" ], "independence_group": "RASMUSSEN_2024_24_STUDIES_2655_FARMS" }, { "source_node_id": "AG01-S2", "title": "Long-term agricultural diversification increases financial profitability, biodiversity, and ecosystem services: a second-order meta-analysis", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-67757-7", "source_version": "Nature Communications 17,1016 (2026), publisher HTML", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Results and discussion, Fig.1 and Fig.2 captions", "Research gaps and limitations, paragraphs on long-term data", "Methods: Literature search and data compilation", "Methods: Data analysis" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "RAVELOARITIANA_WANGER_2026_META_REVIEW_OVERLAP_NOT_FULLY_AUDITED" }, { "source_node_id": "AG01-V05-S1", "title": "Joint environmental and social benefits from diversified agriculture", "url": "https://karp.ucdavis.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/310/2024/08/Rasmussen_etal_2024_Science_DiversificationSocioEcological.pdf", "source_version": "Science384:87–93(2024),corrected14May2024 publisher PDF at author university", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Corrected publisher-layout PDFp.1 author list and correction label; p.7 Author contributions" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Original ScienceSI still required", "No raw-data or R reanalysis", "Consumer price-transmission causal evidence not supplied" ], "independence_group": "RASMUSSEN_2024_24_STUDIES_2655_FARMS" }, { "source_node_id": "AG01-V05-S2", "title": "The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World2025", "url": "https://openknowledge.fao.org/bitstreams/e3c60970-7123-4de4-9d82-81f4a08912e4/download", "source_version": "FAO/IFAD/UNICEF/WFP/WHO2025 original report; repository PDF ISBN978-92-5-139937-8", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "§2.2 printed pp.21–24; Table2.5 printed p.23; §2.2.2 and Figure2.7", "Printed p.22 methodological updates: India income series and2021 ICP PPP factors" ], "not_reviewed": [ "No underlying country microdata audit", "No causal price-transmission study completed", "This fixed2025 edition does not substitute for current2026 report" ], "independence_group": "SOFI2025_FAO_JOINT_STATISTICS" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "这组长期农场综合未直接识别消费者价格、家庭购买力和健康膳食可负担性之间的传递效应。", "哪些组合在具体土壤、气候、劳动力与市场条件下带来持续收益，收益是否传给消费者，成本由谁承担？" ], "original_field": "农业／食品系统", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "多样化农业如何兼顾生态与吃得起", "current_status": "哪些组合在具体土壤、气候、劳动力与市场条件下带来持续收益，收益是否传给消费者，成本由谁承担？", "limits": "关联不等于无价值，也不能从非随机设计推断不存在因果效应。 补充材料未逐表复算；正文说等权重后总体方向保留，不代表所有具体结果都稳定。 所提劳动和现金作物面积机制主要是解释候选，未在本轮建立中介因果识别。 长时段数据稀疏；不同底层研究可能重叠，已按作者规则去重但本轮未独立核对。 这是从实际纳入指标得出的编辑边界，不能当作任何农业措施一定提高或降低食品价格的结论。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "AG01", "title": "多样化农业如何兼顾生态与吃得起", "domain": "农业与兽医", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical", "normative_component" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "多样化农场措施与若干收益相关；消费者能否吃得起尚缺中间传递证据。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "AG01-C1", "AG01-C2", "AG01-C5" ], "evidence_ids": [ "AG01-E1", "AG01-E2", "AG01-E5" ], "source_ids": [ "AG01-S1", "AG01-S2" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "哪些组合在当地持续有效，收益能否传到消费者与弱势家庭？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "AG01-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "多地长期比较，连接农场成本、流通价格、收入与膳食数据。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "AG01-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "农场关联不是消费者价格的因果结论；更多措施不保证所有目标一起改善。", "node_ids": [ "AG01-L1", "AG01-L2", "AG01-L3", "AG01-L4", "AG01-L5", "AG01-V05-L1", "AG01-V05-L2" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "从农田到餐桌的断续链", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "多样化农场措施与若干收益相关；消费者能否吃得起尚缺中间传递证据。 哪些组合在当地持续有效，收益能否传到消费者与弱势家庭？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "AG01-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "明确土壤、劳动和组合措施", "proposed_artifact": "农场条件卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "AG01-Q1", "AG01-C1", "AG01-C2", "AG01-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "AG01-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "记录长期收益及失败", "proposed_artifact": "多地比较", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "AG01-Q1", "AG01-C1", "AG01-C2", "AG01-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "AG01-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "连接成本、价格与购买力", "proposed_artifact": "传递机制链", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "AG01-Q1", "AG01-C1", "AG01-C2", "AG01-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "AG01-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "公开生态收入营养权衡", "proposed_artifact": "分配评价", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "AG01-Q1", "AG01-C1", "AG01-C2", "AG01-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "AG01", "question_id": "AG01-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "AG01-C1", "AG01-C2", "AG01-C3", "AG01-C4", "AG01-C5", "AG01-V05-C1", "AG01-V05-C2" ], "all_source_ids": [ "AG01-S1", "AG01-S2", "AG01-V05-S1", "AG01-V05-S2" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "AG01-L1", "AG01-L2", "AG01-L3", "AG01-L4", "AG01-L5", "AG01-V05-L1", "AG01-V05-L2" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 2, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "AG01-G01", "status": "partial", "target": "Retrieve 2024 Science supplement and corrected author-list version", 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"sourceVersion": "Science 384:87–93, original 5 April 2024 publisher PDF text, before author-list correction" } ] }, { "id": "AG01-C3", "label": "得失依结果和景观而异", "text": "平均组合关联掩盖结果间权衡和景观异质性；更多多样化不能简单等同于所有目标同步改善。", "scope": "五种措施及三类景观的模型比较", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "同一农场的成本、劳动、收入和生态结果长期联合观测。", "sources": [ "AG01-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "AG01-P3", "label": "得失依结果和景观而异：必要前提", "text": "福祉、膳食多样性、生物多样性与产量分别操作化；不能互换这些终点。", "preciseLocator": "Maximizing win-wins, minimizing trade-offs, pp.91–92; Role of landscape composition, p.92; Figure 4 caption", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "AG01-L3", "label": "得失依结果和景观而异：边界", "text": "所提劳动和现金作物面积机制主要是解释候选，未在本轮建立中介因果识别。", "preciseLocator": "Maximizing win-wins, minimizing trade-offs, pp.91–92; Role of landscape composition, p.92; Figure 4 caption", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "AG01-E3", "label": 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"本轮未找到晚于2024-05-14的新更正；WSU索引另有Corrected17April2024标签，未审该差异，不据此覆盖已核实的五月作者名单版本。", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change; no_independent_replication", "status_reason": "指定连续原文或补充材料尚未取得；新增索引段落单列，不将检索完成算作原文缺口解决。", "finding": "官方Supplementary Materials清单确认为Figs.S1–S10、TablesS1–S13、Methods与Supplementary Text；2.40MB。清单不是SI正文。官方2024-05-14更正补入第21作者Aidee Guzman及贡献缩写；不能推断数值/分析被更正。", "reading_extent": [ "Science原文与原SI直达失败；官方索引SI清单/更正声明可读；机构主文记录可读，非原SI" ], "sources": [ { "title": "AG01-G01 Supplementary Materials；Correction (14 May 2024)", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj1914", "locator": "Supplementary Materials；Correction (14 May 2024)", "access": "publisher-indexed text" }, { "title": "AG01-G01 Adgang til dokumentet / Accepted version", "url": "https://researchprofiles.ku.dk/da/publications/joint-environmental-and-social-benefits-from-diversified-agricult/", "locator": "Adgang til dokumentet / Accepted version", "access": "institution metadata, not SI" } ], "remaining_gap": "S1–S13与S1–S10实际内容仍未取得。未重跑24研究/2655农场数据；不能新增消费者价格传导的因果结论。", "next_action": "取得合法原SI后，逐表核对结果变量、样本/研究数、缺失与混合效应模型，重点S12/S13；再在已有公开数据/代码上做逐研究剔除及结果定义敏感性检验。", "title": "农业多样化补充材料", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" } ] }, { "id": "VH01", "field": "农业与兽医", "title": "跨人群与动物的防控怎样落地", "known_core": [ "2018–2019实施前后，已参加机构的咬伤记录及高风险分类上升。", "49.1%的调查对象被归为可能病例，不是49.1%全部经实验室确诊。", "可行性发生在明确支持条件下，尚不能直接外推为无额外资源的全国持续服务。", "S3相对S2较少的死亡是给定政策情景和行为假设的预测，不是已观察到的全国政策成效。", "报告的成本效果不能视作已覆盖人、动物与家庭的完整跨部门成本收益。", "联合行动计划规定六条行动路线、治理与拟议监测框架，属于合作范围和实施计划。", "补充材料显示的不完整PEP死亡方程没有P_start|seek因子，而完成PEP方程包含；与Table2条件概率定义存在需核对的表面不一致。" ], "frontier_question": "怎样把联合监测转化为持续降低人和动物疾病负担的服务，并处理成本分担、动物福利及不同部门目标之间的冲突？", "evidence_needed": [ "长期跟踪检测覆盖、确诊准确度、人和动物发病、响应延迟及服务可及性，区分监测加强与真实风险变化", "在伦理可行的比较设计中评估联合服务的新增效果，补齐动物调查、兽医培训、供应链与家庭成本，并实测模型中的就医行为假设", "结合一线人员、动物饲养者和社群的实施经验，查明数据共享、交通和供给体系中的具体障碍", "分别报告人类健康、动物健康与福利、生态影响和部门成本，不把所有价值压成同一个收益数" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "漏报与检测偏差", "实施与持续性", "跨部门因果归因", "跨物种目标权衡" ], "important_limits": [ "非随机前后比较，地区有暴发；不能由记录增多推断真实疾病上升或已经降低死亡。", "只有小部分动物有可检样本，且存在失踪动物和选择偏差；不能估计全体犬只患病率。", "可推广性限制与本地可行性不同；本研究没有随机估计每项支持要素的独立贡献。", "同一项目资料与2020研究不完全独立；模型不是随机政策试验，预测区间不囊括全部结构误差。 补充材料显示的不完整PEP死亡方程与Table2条件概率定义有待代码对应核对的表面不一致；不据此断言模型结果有错。", "没有重运行模型；正文不同段落的增量数字与Table 5不尽一致，引用只采用表中情景总量，增量解释待审计。", "计划提出指标与未来行动，不是降低疾病或死亡的已测效果；不替代具体地区干预研究。", "这是显示方程的表面不一致；未核代码对应或重算，不能断言执行模型/结果有错。全国死亡与成本仍是条件情景预测。" ], "epistemic_mode": "兽医与公共卫生经验研究，加上跨部门实施和治理", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "VH01-S1", "title": "One Health in Practice: Using Integrated Bite Case Management to Increase Detection of Rabid Animals in Tanzania", "url": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00013/full", "source_version": "Frontiers in Public Health 8:13 (2020), publisher HTML", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Methodology: Study Area, IBCM Framework, Application, Training", "Results: Bite Patient Risk Assessments, Table 1; Animal Investigations", "Discussion and Conclusion" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "TANZANIA_IBCM_SHARED_PROGRAMME_2018_2024" }, { "source_node_id": "VH01-S2", "title": "Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies for provisioning rabies post-exposure vaccines", "url": "https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/375932/1/375932.pdf", "source_version": "Vaccine 74 (2026) 128178, Version of Record PDF", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "2.1–2.3 pp.2–3", "3.2–3.3, Table 5 and Figure 6, pp.7–9", "4.1–4.3 pp.7–10" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "TANZANIA_IBCM_SHARED_PROGRAMME_2018_2024" }, { "source_node_id": "VH01-V05-S1", "title": "One Health Joint Plan of Action2022–2026", "url": "https://www.woah.org/app/uploads/2022/04/one-health-joint-plan-of-action-final.pdf", "source_version": "Quadripartite final2022 plan,86-page PDF, not March2022 consultation draft; WOAH DOI10.20506/9789295121430 and FAO DOI10.4060/cc2289en identify the same joint report", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Final PDF contents and executive action-track list PDFpp.7,13 (web zero-basedP6,P12)", "Part3 Action track3 PDFp.48 (printed34)", "Part4 Implementation, monitoring and evaluation PDFpp.71–72 (printed57–58)" ], "not_reviewed": [ "No program outcome evaluation inferred", "No knowledgeholder consultation or expert review", "Full report not exhaustively reviewed" ], "independence_group": "QUADRIPARTITE_JOINT_PLAN2022" }, { "source_node_id": "VH01-V05-S2", "title": "Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of policies for provisioning rabies post-exposure vaccines", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC13201362/supplementaryFiles", "source_version": "Vaccine74(2026)128178 supplementary material mmc2.docx; PMC13201362 deposit", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "mmc2.docx rendered p.1: second death equation Deaths_incomplete_PEP, compared with third death equation and final PEP-completion equation; main article Table2 conditional probability definitions" ], "not_reviewed": [ "No code or numeric output rerun", "Equation-to-code reconciliation needed", "Main-text scenario projections remain conditional rather than observed nationwide death reductions" ], "independence_group": "TANZANIA_IBCM_SHARED_PROGRAMME_2018_2024" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "如何把更敏感的监测转为持续降低人和动物疾病负担的服务，同时验证全部成本、可及性、动物福利和跨部门分配？" ], "original_field": "兽医学／One Health", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "跨人群与动物的防控怎样落地", "current_status": "如何把更敏感的监测转为持续降低人和动物疾病负担的服务，同时验证全部成本、可及性、动物福利和跨部门分配？", "limits": "非随机前后比较，地区有暴发；不能由记录增多推断真实疾病上升或已经降低死亡。 只有小部分动物有可检样本，且存在失踪动物和选择偏差；不能估计全体犬只患病率。 可推广性限制与本地可行性不同；本研究没有随机估计每项支持要素的独立贡献。 同一项目资料与2020研究不完全独立；模型不是随机政策试验，预测区间不囊括全部结构误差。 没有重运行模型；正文不同段落的增量数字与Table 5不尽一致，引用只采用表中情景总量，增量解释待审计。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "VH01", "title": "跨人群与动物的防控怎样落地", "domain": "农业与兽医", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical", "engineering", "normative_component" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "监测加强后记录增多，可能病例与确诊须分开；全国效果仍主要是条件模型。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "VH01-C1", "VH01-C2", "VH01-C4", "VH01-V05-C1" ], "evidence_ids": [ "VH01-E1", "VH01-E2", "VH01-E4", "VH01-V05-E2", "VH01-V05-E1" ], "source_ids": [ "VH01-S1", "VH01-S2", "VH01-V05-S2", "VH01-V05-S1" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "怎样把监测变成持续降负担的服务，并分清跨部门成本与受益？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "VH01-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "确诊、响应、服务可及性和长期人畜结局，以及完整实施成本。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "VH01-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "记录增加不直接等于疾病上升；模型预测和行动计划不是已测成效。", "node_ids": [ "VH01-L1", "VH01-L2", "VH01-L3", "VH01-L4", "VH01-L5", "VH01-V05-L1", "VH01-V05-L2" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "发现、响应与结局三道门", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "监测加强后记录增多，可能病例与确诊须分开；全国效果仍主要是条件模型。 怎样把监测变成持续降负担的服务，并分清跨部门成本与受益？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "VH01-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "对齐可能病例与确诊", "proposed_artifact": "监测口径卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "VH01-Q1", "VH01-C1", "VH01-C2", "VH01-C4", "VH01-V05-C1" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "VH01-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "记录响应、就医和供给", "proposed_artifact": "服务路径", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "VH01-Q1", "VH01-C1", "VH01-C2", "VH01-C4", "VH01-V05-C1" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "VH01-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "比较人畜结局及部门成本", "proposed_artifact": "实施效果表", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "VH01-Q1", "VH01-C1", "VH01-C2", "VH01-C4", "VH01-V05-C1" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "VH01-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "核对模型方程与实测行为", "proposed_artifact": "模型和服务修订", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "VH01-Q1", "VH01-C1", "VH01-C2", "VH01-C4", "VH01-V05-C1" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "VH01", "question_id": "VH01-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "VH01-C1", "VH01-C2", "VH01-C3", "VH01-C4", "VH01-C5", "VH01-V05-C1", "VH01-V05-C2" ], "all_source_ids": [ "VH01-S1", "VH01-S2", "VH01-V05-S1", "VH01-V05-S2" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "VH01-L1", "VH01-L2", "VH01-L3", "VH01-L4", "VH01-L5", "VH01-V05-L1", "VH01-V05-L2" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 2, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "VH01-G01", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Read WHO/FAO/UNEP/WOAH Joint Plan scope without treating as outcome evidence", "residual_limits": [ "No program outcome evaluation inferred", "No knowledgeholder consultation or expert review", "Full report not exhaustively reviewed" ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" }, { "id": "VH01-G02", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Retrieve claim-relevant Vaccine 2026 supplementary equations without rerunning code", "residual_limits": [ "No code or numeric output rerun", "Equation-to-code reconciliation needed", "Main-text scenario projections remain conditional rather than observed nationwide death reductions" ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" } ] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "VH01-C1", "label": "前后报告变化", "text": "2018–2019实施前后，已参加机构的咬伤记录及高风险分类上升。", "scope": "坦桑尼亚4地区20行政区，实施约1年", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "恒定检测条件下的对照与完整发病、死亡资料。", "sources": [ "VH01-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "VH01-P1", "label": "前后报告变化：必要前提", "text": "比较的是常规纸面记录与IBCM后的报告；培训和检测流程同时改变。", "preciseLocator": "Results: Bite Patient Risk Assessments, first paragraph and Table 1; Methodology: Training, final paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "VH01-L1", "label": "前后报告变化：边界", "text": "非随机前后比较，地区有暴发；不能由记录增多推断真实疾病上升或已经降低死亡。", "preciseLocator": "Results: Bite Patient Risk Assessments, first paragraph and Table 1; Methodology: Training, final paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "VH01-E1", "label": "前后报告变化：原文依据", "text": "月均新咬伤就诊记录由55.7到92.2；被医务人员评为疑似狂犬动物咬伤的比例由26.9%到64.9%。", "preciseLocator": "Results: Bite Patient Risk Assessments, first paragraph and Table 1; Methodology: Training, final paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00013/full", "sourceVersion": "Frontiers in Public Health 8:13 (2020), publisher HTML" } ] }, { "id": "VH01-C2", "label": "疑似与确诊应分开", "text": "49.1%的调查对象被归为可能病例，不是49.1%全部经实验室确诊。", "scope": "IBCM的823次调查", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "具有明确抽样框和更完整实验室诊断的追踪。", "sources": [ "VH01-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "VH01-P2", "label": "疑似与确诊应分开：必要前提", "text": "临床/流行病学分类与检测阳性分别计数；调查样本由高风险警报或社群报告产生。", "preciseLocator": "Results: Animal Investigations, first–fourth paragraphs; Figure 4", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "VH01-L2", "label": "疑似与确诊应分开：边界", "text": "只有小部分动物有可检样本，且存在失踪动物和选择偏差；不能估计全体犬只患病率。", "preciseLocator": "Results: Animal Investigations, first–fourth paragraphs; Figure 4", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "VH01-E2", "label": "疑似与确诊应分开：原文依据", "text": "823次动物调查中404例按症状或快速检测判为可能狂犬病；实际快速检测10份，其中8阳性；202例状态未知。", "preciseLocator": "Results: Animal Investigations, first–fourth paragraphs; Figure 4", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00013/full", "sourceVersion": "Frontiers in Public Health 8:13 (2020), publisher HTML" } ] }, { "id": "VH01-C3", "label": "运行依赖资源与覆盖", "text": "可行性发生在明确支持条件下，尚不能直接外推为无额外资源的全国持续服务。", "scope": "2020实施研究报告的政府机构与技术支持体系", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "停止或内化外部支持后的长期运行与成本资料。", "sources": [ "VH01-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "VH01-P3", "label": "运行依赖资源与覆盖：必要前提", "text": "病例发现、转诊、样本获取、库存和人员培训都须持续运转。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion, paragraphs beginning Limitations of our study through Government supported training, and From the animal health side", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "VH01-L3", "label": "运行依赖资源与覆盖：边界", "text": "可推广性限制与本地可行性不同；本研究没有随机估计每项支持要素的独立贡献。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion, paragraphs beginning Limitations of our study through Government supported training, and From the animal health side", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "VH01-E3", "label": "运行依赖资源与覆盖：原文依据", "text": "Discussion说明私立转诊机构、未就诊死于家中的人漏入；研究团队有跨区远程支持，交通、训练和人员更替影响实施。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion, paragraphs beginning Limitations of our study through Government supported training, and From the animal health side", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00013/full", "sourceVersion": "Frontiers in Public Health 8:13 (2020), publisher HTML" } ] }, { "id": "VH01-C4", "label": "未来死亡数属于模型输出", "text": "S3相对S2较少的死亡是给定政策情景和行为假设的预测，不是已观察到的全国政策成效。", "scope": "坦桑尼亚2026–2030情景，医疗提供方视角", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "政策实施后的预先规定对照、完整结局与预测校准。", "sources": [ "VH01-S2", "VH01-V05-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "VH01-P4", "label": "未来死亡数属于模型输出：必要前提", "text": "全国外推使用地区咬伤发生范围及就医、开始和完成预防服务概率；未模拟犬疫苗带来的传播下降。", "preciseLocator": "2.1–2.3 pp.2–3; 3.2 and Table 5 printed p.7", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "VH01-L4", "label": "未来死亡数属于模型输出：边界", "text": "同一项目资料与2020研究不完全独立；模型不是随机政策试验，预测区间不囊括全部结构误差。 补充材料显示的不完整PEP死亡方程与Table2条件概率定义有待代码对应核对的表面不一致；不据此断言模型结果有错。", "preciseLocator": "2.1–2.3 pp.2–3; 3.2 and Table 5 printed p.7", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" }, { "id": "VH01-V05-L2", "label": "补充方程需要代码对应核对：限制", "text": "这是显示方程的表面不一致；未核代码对应或重算，不能断言执行模型/结果有错。全国死亡与成本仍是条件情景预测。", "preciseLocator": "mmc2.docx rendered p.1: second death equation Deaths_incomplete_PEP, compared with third death equation and final PEP-completion equation; main article Table2 conditional probability definitions", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "VH01-E4", "label": "未来死亡数属于模型输出：原文依据", "text": "2019–2024四地区IBCM数据输入决策树，Table 5给2026–2030死亡数S1为3800、S2为2300、S3为2000，均附预测区间。", "preciseLocator": "2.1–2.3 pp.2–3; 3.2 and Table 5 printed p.7", "fulltextUrl": "https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/375932/1/375932.pdf", "sourceVersion": "Vaccine 74 (2026) 128178, Version of Record PDF" }, { "id": "VH01-V05-E2", "label": "补充方程需要代码对应核对：原文依据", "text": "Displayed incomplete-PEP death expression lacks P_start,rabid|seek, while complete-PEP deaths and PEP-completion expressions include it. Table2 defines completion conditional on initiation and gives P_start values0.847(S1) and0.907(S2/S3), so initiation is not identically one. XML contains literal runs for the entire incomplete-PEP equation and no omitted OMML object; rendered page confirms the absence. This is an apparent displayed-equation inconsistency, not evidence that executable code or published outcome estimates are wrong.", "preciseLocator": "mmc2.docx rendered p.1: second death equation Deaths_incomplete_PEP, compared with third death equation and final PEP-completion equation; main article Table2 conditional probability definitions", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC13201362/supplementaryFiles", "sourceVersion": "Vaccine74(2026)128178 supplementary material mmc2.docx; PMC13201362 deposit" } ] }, { "id": "VH01-C5", "label": "成本视角不是完整One Health", "text": "报告的成本效果不能视作已覆盖人、动物与家庭的完整跨部门成本收益。", "scope": "2026发表版模型成本核算，不作为暴露处置建议", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "补齐跨部门微观成本，核实行为参数并独立复算情景差额。", "sources": [ "VH01-S2", "VH01-V05-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "VH01-P5", "label": "成本视角不是完整One Health：必要前提", "text": "解释经济结果必须保留医疗机构成本视角和遗漏项，价值权衡不由每避免一例死亡成本自动决定。", "preciseLocator": "4.2 Strengths and limitations, pp.9–10, paragraphs beginning A further limitation; 4.3 Broader context, p.10", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "VH01-L5", "label": "成本视角不是完整One Health：边界", "text": "没有重运行模型；正文不同段落的增量数字与Table 5不尽一致，引用只采用表中情景总量，增量解释待审计。", "preciseLocator": "4.2 Strengths and limitations, pp.9–10, paragraphs beginning A further limitation; 4.3 Broader context, p.10", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" }, { "id": "VH01-V05-L2", "label": "补充方程需要代码对应核对：限制", "text": "这是显示方程的表面不一致；未核代码对应或重算，不能断言执行模型/结果有错。全国死亡与成本仍是条件情景预测。", "preciseLocator": "mmc2.docx rendered p.1: second death equation Deaths_incomplete_PEP, compared with third death equation and final PEP-completion equation; main article Table2 conditional probability definitions", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "VH01-E5", "label": "成本视角不是完整One Health：原文依据", "text": "4.2明确未纳入动物调查、建立IBCM的训练、家庭交通和时间成本，以及更广泛供应链等成本；长期就医改变假设无法验证。", "preciseLocator": "4.2 Strengths and limitations, pp.9–10, paragraphs beginning A further limitation; 4.3 Broader context, p.10", "fulltextUrl": "https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/375932/1/375932.pdf", "sourceVersion": "Vaccine 74 (2026) 128178, Version of Record PDF" }, { "id": "VH01-V05-E2", "label": "补充方程需要代码对应核对：原文依据", "text": "Displayed incomplete-PEP death expression lacks P_start,rabid|seek, while complete-PEP deaths and PEP-completion expressions include it. Table2 defines completion conditional on initiation and gives P_start values0.847(S1) and0.907(S2/S3), so initiation is not identically one. XML contains literal runs for the entire incomplete-PEP equation and no omitted OMML object; rendered page confirms the absence. This is an apparent displayed-equation inconsistency, not evidence that executable code or published outcome estimates are wrong.", "preciseLocator": "mmc2.docx rendered p.1: second death equation Deaths_incomplete_PEP, compared with third death equation and final PEP-completion equation; main article Table2 conditional probability definitions", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC13201362/supplementaryFiles", "sourceVersion": "Vaccine74(2026)128178 supplementary material mmc2.docx; PMC13201362 deposit" } ] }, { "id": "VH01-V05-C1", "label": "One Health计划的证据类型", "text": "联合行动计划规定六条行动路线、治理与拟议监测框架，属于合作范围和实施计划。", "scope": "Only named passages and source versions; no replication or expert review.", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "Author correction, independent validation, missing source recovery or expert review changes the scoped interpretation.", "sources": [ "VH01-V05-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "VH01-V05-P1", "label": "One Health计划的证据类型：条件", "text": "2022正式四方报告；WOAH和FAO两个DOI指向同一联合报告。", "preciseLocator": "Final PDF contents and executive action-track list PDFpp.7,13 (web zero-basedP6,P12); Part3 Action track3 PDFp.48 (printed34); Part4 Implementation, monitoring and evaluation PDFpp.71–72 (printed57–58)", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "VH01-V05-L1", "label": "One Health计划的证据类型：限制", "text": "计划提出指标与未来行动，不是降低疾病或死亡的已测效果；不替代具体地区干预研究。", "preciseLocator": "Final PDF contents and executive action-track list PDFpp.7,13 (web zero-basedP6,P12); Part3 Action track3 PDFp.48 (printed34); Part4 Implementation, monitoring and evaluation PDFpp.71–72 (printed57–58)", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "VH01-V05-E1", "label": "One Health计划的证据类型：原文依据", "text": "The joint plan specifies six action tracks, institutional roles and a proposed monitoring/evaluation framework. Action track3 covers endemic zoonoses; governance and implementation sections propose future targets and indicators. This is authoritative program scope/planning, not evaluated evidence that the plan reduced disease burden.", "preciseLocator": "Final PDF contents and executive action-track list PDFpp.7,13 (web zero-basedP6,P12); Part3 Action track3 PDFp.48 (printed34); Part4 Implementation, monitoring and evaluation PDFpp.71–72 (printed57–58)", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.woah.org/app/uploads/2022/04/one-health-joint-plan-of-action-final.pdf", "sourceVersion": "Quadripartite final2022 plan,86-page PDF, not March2022 consultation draft; WOAH DOI10.20506/9789295121430 and FAO DOI10.4060/cc2289en identify the same joint report" } ] }, { "id": "VH01-V05-C2", "label": "补充方程需要代码对应核对", "text": "补充材料显示的不完整PEP死亡方程没有P_start|seek因子，而完成PEP方程包含；与Table2条件概率定义存在需核对的表面不一致。", "scope": "Only named passages and source versions; no replication or expert review.", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "Author correction, independent validation, missing source recovery or expert review changes the scoped interpretation.", "sources": [ "VH01-V05-S2", "VH01-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "VH01-V05-P2", "label": "补充方程需要代码对应核对：条件", "text": "已核DOCX literal XML并渲染目视确认；Table2定义完成概率以已开始为条件，开始概率0.847或0.907并非恒为1。", "preciseLocator": "mmc2.docx rendered p.1: second death equation Deaths_incomplete_PEP, compared with third death equation and final PEP-completion equation; main article Table2 conditional probability definitions", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "VH01-V05-L2", "label": "补充方程需要代码对应核对：限制", "text": "这是显示方程的表面不一致；未核代码对应或重算，不能断言执行模型/结果有错。全国死亡与成本仍是条件情景预测。", "preciseLocator": "mmc2.docx rendered p.1: second death equation Deaths_incomplete_PEP, compared with third death equation and final PEP-completion equation; main article Table2 conditional probability definitions", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "VH01-V05-E2", "label": "补充方程需要代码对应核对：原文依据", "text": "Displayed incomplete-PEP death expression lacks P_start,rabid|seek, while complete-PEP deaths and PEP-completion expressions include it. Table2 defines completion conditional on initiation and gives P_start values0.847(S1) and0.907(S2/S3), so initiation is not identically one. XML contains literal runs for the entire incomplete-PEP equation and no omitted OMML object; rendered page confirms the absence. This is an apparent displayed-equation inconsistency, not evidence that executable code or published outcome estimates are wrong.", "preciseLocator": "mmc2.docx rendered p.1: second death equation Deaths_incomplete_PEP, compared with third death equation and final PEP-completion equation; main article Table2 conditional probability definitions", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC13201362/supplementaryFiles", "sourceVersion": "Vaccine74(2026)128178 supplementary material mmc2.docx; PMC13201362 deposit" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "VH01", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮2项指定资料已核", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及2个有界资料目标：2项指定资料已取得并核对，0项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "One Health 联合行动计划的范围", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "不能据此推断项目实施效果。", "未咨询知识持有者或开展专家评审，未穷尽全报告。" ] }, { "item": "狂犬病模型的补充方程", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "需将所显示方程与实际代码对照；本轮未运行代码或重算数值。", "全国死亡减少仍是附条件的情景预测，不是已经观察到的成效。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "VH01-C1", "VH01-C2", "VH01-C3", "VH01-C4", "VH01-C5", "VH01-V05-C1", "VH01-V05-C2" ], "limitation_ids": [ "VH01-L1", "VH01-L2", "VH01-L3", "VH01-L4", "VH01-L5", "VH01-V05-L1", "VH01-V05-L2" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "VH01-G01", "VH01-G02" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "SS01", "field": "社会与制度", "title": "制度与长期繁荣", "known_core": "本卡已核查的限定结果与论证：AJR在特定历史样本和工具变量模型下报告制度代理与收入的大幅正向因果估计。 Albouy最终评论挑战死亡率代理的地域指派、可比性和聚类处理，要求把史料构造纳入识别审计。 答复报告部分替代处理保留正向估计，使争论成为史料、异常值与模型选择的实质分歧。 在这些有争议但明确的替代规格中，正的IV点估计也可能伴随几乎无信息的稳健区间。", "frontier_question": "哪些具体制度、政治过程与历史条件造成长期发展差异，怎样区分相互因果？", "evidence_needed": [ "核查史料来源和指标构造，并公开代码与替代数据", "比较不同自然实验、过程史及跨地区证据", "识别机制、异质性和制度变迁，而不是只做跨国相关" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "因果识别假设", "历史测量", "内生性", "情境外推" ], "important_limits": "0.94是每一指数单位对应的对数收入系数，不是普遍政策提升百分比；本轮没有复算。 这项识别边界不等于证明工具必然失效，亦不等于制度没有作用。 AJR答复明确反对其删样本及campaign编码；评论的批评不是双方已同意的数据判决。 答复与原文及批评复用数据；不是第三个独立历史自然实验。 区间不受约束说明该规格信息不足，不证明真效应为零；替代规格的历史合理性仍被争论。", "epistemic_mode": "经验解释：有支持的机制，无单一万能因果律", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "SS01-S1", "title": "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation", "url": "https://cpi.stanford.edu/_media/pdf/Reference%20Media/Acemoglu,%20Johnson,%20and%20Robinson_2001_Development%20Economics.pdf", "source_version": "AER 91(5):1369–1401 (2001), publisher PDF institutional copy", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Introduction pp.1370–1372", "III.B Data on Potential Settler Mortality pp.1382–1383", "IV.A–B and Table 4 pp.1383–1386", "overidentification discussion p.1393" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "AJR_COLONIAL_MORTALITY_SHARED_DATA" }, { "source_node_id": "SS01-S2", "title": "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation: Comment", "url": "https://davidalbouy.com/s/AJRrev.pdf", "source_version": "AER102(6):3059–3076 (2012), publisher PDF from author's current website", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Introduction pp.3059–3060", "II Sensitivity of Empirical Results pp.3067–3072", "Table1 p.3066; Table3 p.3073; TableA1 pp.3074–3075", "Conclusion p.3073" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "AJR_COLONIAL_MORTALITY_SHARED_DATA" }, { "source_node_id": "SS01-S3", "title": "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation: Reply", "url": "https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/The%20Colonial%20Origins%20of%20Compatayive%20Development%20-%20.pdf", "source_version": "AER 102(6):3077–3110 (2012), publisher PDF author institution", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Introduction pp.3077–3079", "Table 2A pp.3095–3096", "Table 2B and associated discussion pp.3097–3098", "II.E campaign dummy discussion p.3098" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "AJR_COLONIAL_MORTALITY_SHARED_DATA" } ], "frontier_detail": "哪些具体制度及历史过程造成发展差异，怎样用可核查史料与独立识别区分制度、疾病和其他持久路径？", "original_field": "社会科学／经济学", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "制度与长期繁荣", "current_status": "截至2026-10-04，原研究、最终数据批评与作者答复均有一手全文；争议同时涉及史料编码、弱工具推断和模型选择。 领域专家复核待完成。", "limits": "0.94是每一指数单位对应的对数收入系数，不是普遍政策提升百分比；本轮没有复算。 这项识别边界不等于证明工具必然失效，亦不等于制度没有作用。 AJR答复明确反对其删样本及campaign编码；评论的批评不是双方已同意的数据判决。 答复与原文及批评复用数据；不是第三个独立历史自然实验。 区间不受约束说明该规格信息不足，不证明真效应为零；替代规格的历史合理性仍被争论。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "primary_passages_checked", "expert_review": "pending", "visual": { "id": "SS01", "title": "制度与长期繁荣", "domain": "社会与制度", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical", "historical" ], "known": { 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"sources": [ "SS01-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS01-P3", "label": "最终评论定位到史料编码：必要前提", "text": "本国史料也不是无误差真值；删样本和来源分类须有历史理由，不能只看显著性。", "preciseLocator": "2012 Comment Introduction p.3060; Table1 p.3066; II pp.3067–3069; TableA1 pp.3074–3075", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS01-L3", "label": "最终评论定位到史料编码：边界", "text": "AJR答复明确反对其删样本及campaign编码；评论的批评不是双方已同意的数据判决。", "preciseLocator": "2012 Comment Introduction p.3060; Table1 p.3066; II pp.3067–3069; TableA1 pp.3074–3075", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS01-E3", "label": "最终评论定位到史料编码：原文依据", "text": "2012评论指出64国只有28国死亡率来自本国内，36国由别国外推；士兵战役、营房及劳工资料的组合影响可比性，并公开逐国指标表。", "preciseLocator": "2012 Comment Introduction p.3060; Table1 p.3066; II pp.3067–3069; TableA1 pp.3074–3075", "fulltextUrl": "https://davidalbouy.com/s/AJRrev.pdf", "sourceVersion": "AER102(6):3059–3076 (2012), publisher PDF from author's current website" } ] }, { "id": "SS01-C4", "label": "作者答复提供相反稳健性结果", "text": "答复报告部分替代处理保留正向估计，使争论成为史料、异常值与模型选择的实质分歧。", "scope": "2012 Reply所列重分析，不裁决整个学术论争", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "可复现的共同史料基准及多套合理规格的独立审计。", "sources": [ "SS01-S3" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS01-P4", "label": "作者答复提供相反稳健性结果：必要前提", "text": "截顶、排除特定国家及控制变量都改变模型；应共同审查而非按论文数量投票。", "preciseLocator": "Reply pp.3078–3079; Table 2A pp.3095–3096; Table 2B pp.3097–3098; II.E p.3098", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS01-L4", "label": "作者答复提供相反稳健性结果：边界", "text": "答复与原文及批评复用数据；不是第三个独立历史自然实验。", "preciseLocator": "Reply pp.3078–3079; Table 2A pp.3095–3096; Table 2B pp.3097–3098; II.E p.3098", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS01-E4", "label": "作者答复提供相反稳健性结果：原文依据", "text": "2012答复认为大幅删样本及战役编码不合理，Table 2A/B比较去掉Gambia、死亡率截顶250等处理后第一阶段和第二阶段。", "preciseLocator": "Reply pp.3078–3079; Table 2A pp.3095–3096; Table 2B pp.3097–3098; II.E 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"text": "653村、84 sublocations；先分高低覆盖区域，再按2/3和1/3比例随机选处理村并随机实施顺序；约1/3家庭按茅草屋顶资格取得一次性转移。", "preciseLocator": "2.1 Setting; 2.2 Intervention; 2.3 Experimental Design, all paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3982/ECTA17945", "sourceVersion": "Econometrica 90(6):2603–2643 (2022), publisher full HTML" } ] }, { "id": "SS02-C2", "label": "非受益家庭与企业也有收益", "text": "该研究的正外溢体现在消费及企业收入等终点，不能把营业额增加等同于利润、生产率或永久资本积累。", "scope": "终期调查中当地家庭与企业结果", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "长期企业进入、利润、生产率和就业时间利用的直接测量。", "sources": [ "SS02-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS02-P2", "label": "非受益家庭与企业也有收益：必要前提", "text": "家庭、企业及就业收入分别测量；区分总效应与单纯处理村减控制村的差。", "preciseLocator": "4.3 Enterprise Effects, Table III Panels A–C and following paragraphs; 4.4 first two paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS02-L2", "label": "非受益家庭与企业也有收益：边界", "text": 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"preciseLocator": "5 definition and 5.1 Multiplier Estimates, Table V Panels A–C and notes", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS02-L3", "label": "当地乘数有抽样与核算误差：边界", "text": "两种核算来自同一实验，不是独立重复试验；标准误较大，初期数据不完整。", "preciseLocator": "5 definition and 5.1 Multiplier Estimates, Table V Panels A–C and notes", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS02-E3", "label": "当地乘数有抽样与核算误差：原文依据", "text": "Table V支出乘数2.58（SE1.44），收入乘数2.47（SE1.71）；联合检验乘数≤1的p为0.07，单个检验分别0.14/0.20。", "preciseLocator": "5 definition and 5.1 Multiplier Estimates, Table V Panels A–C and notes", "fulltextUrl": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.3982/ECTA17945", "sourceVersion": "Econometrica 90(6):2603–2643 (2022), publisher full HTML" } ] }, { "id": "SS02-C4", "label": "融资和规模限制推广", "text": "局部低通胀和正乘数不能独自预测全国、长期或税债融资的转移结果。", "scope": "一次性、外部资助的地方转移向其他政策外推", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "不同融资/覆盖尺度的试验与可验证一般均衡模型。", "sources": [ "SS02-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS02-P4", "label": "融资和规模限制推广：必要前提", "text": "外部效度要比较融资、市场连通、供给弹性及宏观政策，而非只比较发现金的形式。", "preciseLocator": "1 Introduction, paragraphs on external donors; 5 first three paragraphs; 3.6 and 4.5 price measurement and market-access discussion", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS02-L4", "label": "融资和规模限制推广：边界", "text": "本地因果识别较强与可推广性未定同时成立；不构成全国政策必然失效的证据。", "preciseLocator": "1 Introduction, paragraphs on external donors; 5 first three paragraphs; 3.6 and 4.5 price measurement and market-access discussion", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS02-E4", "label": "融资和规模限制推广：原文依据", "text": "5节明示资金从研究区外慈善捐入，相对国家经济小；因此回避国内税债融资、货币政策及汇率反应。价格调查显示平均涨幅有限。", "preciseLocator": "1 Introduction, paragraphs on external donors; 5 first three paragraphs; 3.6 and 4.5 price measurement and market-access discussion", "fulltextUrl": 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"frontier_question": "预测失败来自缺少变量、测量噪声、社会变化，还是该尺度上的内在不可预测性？", "evidence_needed": [ "预注册的时间外、地区外盲测及简单基线", "增加可解释的重复测量并量化标签噪声", "检验制度变化、行为响应和罕见事件造成的分布漂移" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "可观测性", "随机性与路径依赖", "分布漂移" ], "important_limits": [ "六项自报指标和单队列不能代表所有人生终点；地理和遗传信息未开放给参赛者。", "从同一留出集挑最佳模型并估计性能存在乐观选择偏差；未重跑原代码。", "作者称总论不变是作者说明，本轮未独立验证所有更新图或数值。v0.5 取回的 Europe PMC SI 在 S15/S18 仍保留被 2021 更正替换的旧值；所需的已更正 SI、图 S6–S9 与 S17–S18 仍未核验。", "40家庭有目的地过采样难预测者；不能由访谈计算各误差来源在总体中的比例。", "推广段有明确推测性质；不能把作者预期当已获全球验证的事实。", "Corrected SI original still needed, especially FigsS6–S9,S17–S18 and computational-version details. Do not treat stale-file recovery as successful corrected-SI closure." ], "epistemic_mode": "经验研究：可预测性本身也是待估计对象", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "SS03-S1", "title": "Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration", "url": "https://api.repository.cam.ac.uk/server/api/core/bitstreams/3880cec9-bccf-43af-b761-1ba299afe5f1/content", "source_version": "PNAS117:8398–8403 (2020), original publisher PDF institutional copy; read with separate 2021 correction", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "task/data design pp.8399–8400, Eq.1", "Results pp.8400–8402, Figures3–4", "Discussion p.8402" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "FFC_2017_SHARED_COHORT_AND_CHALLENGE" }, { "source_node_id": "SS03-S2", "title": "Correction for Salganik et al., Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118703118", "source_version": "PNAS118(50)e2118703118 (2021), correction HTML", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "complete correction notice paragraphs", "corrected Fig.3 caption", "SI amendments S15 and S18" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "FFC_2017_SHARED_COHORT_AND_CHALLENGE" }, { "source_node_id": "SS03-S3", "title": "The origins of unpredictability in life outcome prediction tasks", "url": "https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/4883/af15f5e446dda2ac524d2466861c8a4de434.pdf", "source_version": "PNAS121(24)e2322973121 (2024), Version of Record PDF", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "1 Conceptual Framework, Eq.1 pp.2–3", "2 study/sampling pp.3–4", "3.1 sources of irreducible error p.4", "4.1 Generalizing pp.5–6" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "FFC_2017_SHARED_COHORT_AND_CHALLENGE" }, { "source_node_id": "SS03-V05-S1", "title": "Supplementary Information: Measuring the predictability of life outcomes using a scientific mass collaboration", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC7165437/supplementaryFiles", "source_version": "69-page pnas.1915006117.sapp.pdf in official Europe PMC public supplementary-files package, retrieved2026-10-04. 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public official hosting does not itself prove the attached file is updated.", "preciseLocator": "SI printed/PDF S15,S18; correction paragraphs beginning In the SI Appendix and On page S18", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS03-V05-L1", "label": "存储库 SI 保留已更正旧值：边界", "text": "Corrected SI original still needed, especially FigsS6–S9,S17–S18 and computational-version details. Do not treat stale-file recovery as successful corrected-SI closure.", "preciseLocator": "SI printed/PDF S15,S18; correction paragraphs beginning In the SI Appendix and On page S18", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS03-V05-E1", "label": "存储库 SI 保留已更正旧值：原文依据", "text": "S15 retains four times and S18 retains100%; the already-read correction specifies three times and95%, respectively.", "preciseLocator": "SI printed/PDF S15,S18; correction paragraphs beginning In the SI Appendix and On page S18", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC7165437/supplementaryFiles", "sourceVersion": "69-page pnas.1915006117.sapp.pdf in official Europe PMC public supplementary-files package, retrieved2026-10-04. Text retains pre-2021-correction values; NOT the verified corrected SI." } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "SS03", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮1项资料目标；1项仍有缺口", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及1个有界资料目标：0项指定资料已取得并核对，1项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "生活结果预测研究的已更正补充材料", "status": "partial", "gap": [ "需要与2021年更正匹配的补充材料：S15/S18 应为 three times／95%，以及更正后的图 S6–S9、S17–S18。", "当前比较数值继续只据已读正式更正，不能援引这份旧材料作为现行数值；未复现数据或分析。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "SS03-C1", "SS03-C2", "SS03-C3", "SS03-C4", "SS03-C5", "SS03-V05-C1" ], "limitation_ids": [ "SS03-L1", "SS03-L2", "SS03-L3", "SS03-L4", "SS03-L5", "SS03-V05-L1" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "SS03-G01" ] }, "updates": [ { "gap_id": "SS03-G01", "card_id": "SS03", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "finding": "重新直接读到出版社2021更正，确认线性/逻辑回归代码错误、过期图数据及R包版本修订。新发现更正DOI自己的12.31MB附件路径，区别于原论文附件，但获取仍403。Europe PMC更正附件API返回非开放获取错误；原论文SI包本轮超时，未声称再次取到旧文件。", "reading_extent": [ "PNAS更正全实质段、Fig.3图注、S15/S18替换文字及Supporting Information链接；新附件访问结果" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Correction for Salganik et al.", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118703118", "locator": "更正首段；S15第三整段第8–9行；S18第三整段第2–3行；更新图列表及Supporting Information", "access": "publisher_HTML_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "2021-12-02 online;2021-12-14 issue" }, { "title": "Correction-associated Appendix01", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/suppl/10.1073/pnas.2118703118/suppl_file/pnas.2118703118.sapp.pdf", "locator": "12.31MB下载链接；目标S6–S9/S17–S18及S15/S18", "access": "web_cache_miss;direct_403_no_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Europe PMC correction supplementary endpoint", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC8685898/supplementaryFiles", "locator": "API错误内容，非附件", "access": "200_error_XML_not_open_access", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Original-paper SI package", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC7165437/supplementaryFiles", "locator": "本轮请求超时；v0.5旧副本结论仅继承", "access": "timeout_no_new_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null } ], "remaining_gap": "未取得匹配3倍/95%文字、正确图S6–S9/S17–S18及R包版本的SI。作者称结论不变，不等于本轮独立验证。", "next_action": "优先获取更正DOI所挂附件，验收S15=3倍、S18=95%及六张图；之后冻结数据/软件，比较修正二元逻辑基准与旧线性基准，复算holdout R²、误差区间及模型相对优势。只评价该队列/预测任务，不推导人生普遍不可预测。", "conclusion_impact": "version_route_refinement;no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "优先获取更正DOI所挂附件，验收S15=3倍、S18=95%及六张图；之后冻结数据/软件，比较修正二元逻辑基准与旧线性基准，复算holdout R²、误差区间及模型相对优势。只评价该队列/预测任务，不推导人生普遍不可预测。", "new_material": [ "新识别更正DOI附件URL，但文件未取得" ], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "SS03-S2", "SS03-E3", "SS03-C3", "SS03-L3", "SS03-Q1" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "社会复杂性预测更正版补充", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" } ] }, { "id": "SS04", "field": "社会与制度", "title": "发现何时可重复、可推广", "known_core": [ "55.1%与49.3%对应不同加权单位，不能任选其一作为全部社科的真理比例。", "不同重复率部分来自判据、假设和可评子样本差异；最高比例不能当独立重复最强证据。", "重复资料总体倾向更小效应，不能只用显著/不显著叙述结果差异。" ], "frontier_question": "怎样区分不可靠发现、真实但较小效应，以及依情境变化的效应？", "evidence_needed": [ "高统计功效、预注册、多中心和跨文化重复", "共享数据、代码、测量细节和负结果", "报告效应量、区间与条件，而非只计算显著/不显著" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "抽样与发表偏差", "测量等价性", "情境依赖", "评判标准" ], "important_limits": [ "只入选有正统计主张的论文，未覆盖定性研究或零结果；本轮没有重新计算置信区间。", "文章没有指定全领域唯一最佳判据；不能把所有率平均成成熟度分数。", "不同研究的中位效应差不是每条原结论夸大相同比例；正结果入选带来回归均值。", "可行性选择方向未知，不能凭直觉断言总体真正重复率必然更高或更低。", "这是文章阐明的方法论边界，不替任何具体失败研究免责；个案需要具体诊断。", "Only named claim-relevant passages compared; no complete line-by-line version diff, full SI audit, individual replication reanalysis, or CI recalculation. The final document is coauthor-hosted, crosschecked against publisher metadata, not publisher-download bytes." ], "epistemic_mode": "方法论前沿：证据可靠性需分层校准", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "SS04-S1", "title": "Investigating the replicability of the social and behavioural sciences", "url": "https://repository.essex.ac.uk/42105/7/replicability.fullmanuscript.pdf", "source_version": "University of Essex accepted full manuscript, 140-page PDF; cover identifies Nature accepted version", "date": "accepted manuscript; exact acceptance-file date not printed in inspected cover", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Results and Table1 manuscript pp.4–5", "replication criteria pp.5–7 and Fig.1", "effect sizes pp.8–9 and Table2", "Discussion pp.11–14", "Methods sampling/design pp.14–16" ], "not_reviewed": [ "complete 140-page accepted-manuscript package", "each individual replication report and raw data", "complete final publisher layout and all 106 pages of official SI; only named relevant passages were read under SS04-V05-S1/S2" ], "independence_group": "SCORE_REPLICATION_274_CLAIMS_164_PAPERS" }, { "source_node_id": "SS04-V05-S1", "title": "Investigating the replicability of the social and behavioural sciences", "url": "https://ssyoon.github.io/publications/2026_Nature.pdf", "source_version": "Final published Nature 652:143–150, issue 2 April 2026 / online 1 April 2026; coauthor Sangsuk Yoon hosted publisher-layout PDF with article DOI, copyright, full published pages, Methods and Extended Data", "date": "2026-04-02 issue; 2026-04-01 online publication", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "printed pp.144–145: replication count/unit and criteria", "printed p.147 Table2 and interpretation limits", "printed p.148 success/generalizability limits", "Methods Sampling and selecting claims, PDF p.9" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Only named claim-relevant passages compared; no complete line-by-line version diff, full SI audit, individual replication reanalysis, or CI recalculation. The final document is coauthor-hosted, crosschecked against publisher metadata, not publisher-download bytes." ], "independence_group": "SCORE_REPLICATION_274_CLAIMS_164_PAPERS" }, { "source_node_id": "SS04-V05-S2", "title": "Supplementary Information: Investigating the replicability of the social and behavioural sciences", "url": "https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-025-10078-y/MediaObjects/41586_2025_10078_MOESM1_ESM.pdf", "source_version": "Publisher-hosted 106-page Supplementary Information including Nature DOI cover; internal SI numbered pp.1–105", "date": "associated with 2026-04-01 article; separate SI revision timestamp not verified", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Sample and Data, SI pp.5–6", "phase/selection and exclusions SI pp.63–64", "effect-size conversion and TableS7 SI pp.64–65", "TableS8 and non-attempt selection discussion SI p.66" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Only named claim-relevant passages compared; no complete line-by-line version diff, full SI audit, individual replication reanalysis, or CI recalculation. The final document is coauthor-hosted, crosschecked against publisher metadata, not publisher-download bytes." ], "independence_group": "SCORE_REPLICATION_274_CLAIMS_164_PAPERS" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "随机抽取候选不使最终完成样本自动代表全部社会行为研究。", "单次失败不证明原结论错误，单次成功也不证明对效应的因果或理论解释成立。", "For the card’s specified units, effect-size subset and generalizability caveats, the final publication agrees with the Essex accepted text; its SI further details feasibility selection and effect-size conversion assumptions.", "如何区分不可靠发现、较小真实效应和情境调节，并建立适合研究目的的重复及推广标准？" ], "original_field": "社会科学／经济学", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "发现何时可重复、可推广", "current_status": "如何区分不可靠发现、较小真实效应和情境调节，并建立适合研究目的的重复及推广标准？", "limits": "只入选有正统计主张的论文，未覆盖定性研究或零结果；本轮没有重新计算置信区间。 文章没有指定全领域唯一最佳判据；不能把所有率平均成成熟度分数。 不同研究的中位效应差不是每条原结论夸大相同比例；正结果入选带来回归均值。 可行性选择方向未知，不能凭直觉断言总体真正重复率必然更高或更低。 这是文章阐明的方法论边界，不替任何具体失败研究免责；个案需要具体诊断。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "SS04", "title": "发现何时可重复、可推广", "domain": "社会与制度", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "重复比例随统计单位、判据和完成样本变化；效应量也需单独比较。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "SS04-C1", "SS04-C2", "SS04-C3", "SS04-C4" ], "evidence_ids": [ "SS04-E1", "SS04-E2", "SS04-E3", "SS04-E4" ], "source_ids": [ "SS04-S1" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "怎样区分不可靠发现、较小真实效应与情境调节？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "SS04-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "高功效预注册多中心重复、透明代码和效应区间。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "SS04-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "重复率不是社科真理比例，也不能给学科排成熟度。", "node_ids": [ "SS04-L1", "SS04-L2", "SS04-L3", "SS04-L4", "SS04-L5", "SS04-V05-L1" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "同一结果的多把验收尺", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "重复比例随统计单位、判据和完成样本变化；效应量也需单独比较。 怎样区分不可靠发现、较小真实效应与情境调节？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "SS04-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "对齐单位、判据与样本选择", "proposed_artifact": "重复定义卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "SS04-Q1", "SS04-C1", "SS04-C2", "SS04-C3", "SS04-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "SS04-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "预注册多中心及跨文化测试", "proposed_artifact": "重复方案", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "SS04-Q1", "SS04-C1", "SS04-C2", "SS04-C3", "SS04-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "SS04-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "比较效应与区间", "proposed_artifact": "结果差异图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "SS04-Q1", "SS04-C1", "SS04-C2", "SS04-C3", "SS04-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "SS04-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "诊断机制和情境", "proposed_artifact": "可推广条件", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "SS04-Q1", "SS04-C1", "SS04-C2", "SS04-C3", "SS04-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "SS04", "question_id": "SS04-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "SS04-C1", "SS04-C2", "SS04-C3", "SS04-C4", "SS04-C5", "SS04-V05-C1" ], "all_source_ids": [ "SS04-S1", "SS04-V05-S1", "SS04-V05-S2" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "SS04-L1", "SS04-L2", "SS04-L3", "SS04-L4", "SS04-L5", "SS04-V05-L1" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 1, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "SS04-G01", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Compare accepted manuscript with final published claim passages and relevant supplement", "residual_limits": [ "Only named claim-relevant passages compared; no complete line-by-line version diff, full SI audit, individual replication reanalysis, or CI recalculation. The final document is coauthor-hosted, crosschecked against publisher metadata, not publisher-download bytes." ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" } ] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "SS04-C1", "label": "统计单位影响重复比例", "text": "55.1%与49.3%对应不同加权单位，不能任选其一作为全部社科的真理比例。", "scope": "2009–2018特定期刊、完成的274项主张", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "改变抽样框或权重、纳入未完成项目可改变比率。", "sources": [ "SS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS04-P1", "label": "统计单位影响重复比例：必要前提", "text": "同论文多个主张的相关性及每篇权重须明确；分子80.8是加权值而非小数篇实物。", "preciseLocator": "Accepted manuscript p.5, Evaluating the replication outcome against the null hypothesis of no effect, weighted and unweighted paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS04-L1", "label": "统计单位影响重复比例：边界", "text": "只入选有正统计主张的论文，未覆盖定性研究或零结果；本轮没有重新计算置信区间。", "preciseLocator": "Accepted manuscript p.5, Evaluating the replication outcome against the null hypothesis of no effect, weighted and unweighted paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS04-E1", "label": "统计单位影响重复比例：原文依据", "text": "同模式且显著的主张为151/274=55.1%（95%CI49.2–60.9）；每篇论文逆权重后为80.8/164=49.3%（43.8–54.7）。", "preciseLocator": "Accepted manuscript p.5, Evaluating the replication outcome against the null hypothesis of no effect, weighted and unweighted paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "https://repository.essex.ac.uk/42105/7/replicability.fullmanuscript.pdf", "sourceVersion": "University of Essex accepted full manuscript, 140-page PDF; cover identifies Nature accepted version" } ] }, { "id": "SS04-C2", "label": "成功标准不是唯一刻度", "text": "不同重复率部分来自判据、假设和可评子样本差异；最高比例不能当独立重复最强证据。", "scope": "所检验的13种指标及适用研究", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "同一子样本上的判据比较、预设决策目标与测量研究。", "sources": [ "SS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS04-P2", "label": "成功标准不是唯一刻度：必要前提", "text": "先问关注方向、显著性、精确效应还是累积证据；原结果参与的合并检验并非独立测试。", "preciseLocator": "pp.6–7, Evaluating replication success with a variety of binary assessments; Fig.1; Discussion Assessing replicability p.12", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS04-L2", "label": "成功标准不是唯一刻度：边界", "text": "文章没有指定全领域唯一最佳判据；不能把所有率平均成成熟度分数。", "preciseLocator": "pp.6–7, Evaluating replication success with a variety of binary assessments; Fig.1; Discussion Assessing replicability p.12", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS04-E2", "label": "成功标准不是唯一刻度：原文依据", "text": "13种二元判据给28.6%到74.8%，不是每种都适用于所有研究；合并原研究与重复的meta判据也包含原正结果。", "preciseLocator": "pp.6–7, Evaluating replication success with a variety of binary assessments; Fig.1; Discussion Assessing replicability p.12", "fulltextUrl": "https://repository.essex.ac.uk/42105/7/replicability.fullmanuscript.pdf", "sourceVersion": "University of Essex accepted full manuscript, 140-page PDF; cover identifies Nature accepted version" } ] }, { "id": "SS04-C3", "label": "效应减小与显著性分开", "text": "重复资料总体倾向更小效应，不能只用显著/不显著叙述结果差异。", "scope": "具有可转换r的157论文及249主张", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "原研究选择机制及潜在真实效应分布的联合建模、再重复。", "sources": [ "SS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS04-P3", "label": "效应减小与显著性分开：必要前提", "text": "r转换和合并主张的规则成立；这是指定可转换子样本的中位数。", "preciseLocator": "pp.8–9 Evaluating replication effect size against original effect size; Fig.3 and Table2", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS04-L3", "label": "效应减小与显著性分开：边界", "text": "不同研究的中位效应差不是每条原结论夸大相同比例；正结果入选带来回归均值。", "preciseLocator": "pp.8–9 Evaluating replication effect size against original effect size; Fig.3 and Table2", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS04-E3", "label": "效应减小与显著性分开：原文依据", "text": "可转Pearson r的加权论文中，原中位效应0.25、重复0.10；Table2限定157论文/249主张子集。", "preciseLocator": "pp.8–9 Evaluating replication effect size against original effect size; Fig.3 and Table2", "fulltextUrl": "https://repository.essex.ac.uk/42105/7/replicability.fullmanuscript.pdf", "sourceVersion": "University of Essex accepted full manuscript, 140-page PDF; cover identifies Nature accepted version" } ] }, { "id": "SS04-C4", "label": "完成样本失去完全随机性", "text": "随机抽取候选不使最终完成样本自动代表全部社会行为研究。", "scope": "SCORE本项目流程及独立性定义", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "未匹配和未完成项目的透明分析及新抽样框。", "sources": [ "SS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS04-P4", "label": "完成样本失去完全随机性：必要前提", "text": "区分抽样、匹配、启动、完成各阶段，独立新资料和原资料混合也须区分。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Sampling frame and selection of claims for replication, pp.14–16; Table1; Constraints on generalizability pp.13–14", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS04-L4", "label": "完成样本失去完全随机性：边界", "text": "可行性选择方向未知，不能凭直觉断言总体真正重复率必然更高或更低。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Sampling frame and selection of claims for replication, pp.14–16; Table1; Constraints on generalizability pp.13–14", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS04-E4", "label": "完成样本失去完全随机性：原文依据", "text": "初始3900论文跨62期刊分层抽样，1500有资格；匹配研究队时受可行性、资源和专长选择。27项复用原数据的混合重复排除主分析。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Sampling frame and selection of claims for replication, pp.14–16; Table1; Constraints on generalizability pp.13–14", "fulltextUrl": "https://repository.essex.ac.uk/42105/7/replicability.fullmanuscript.pdf", "sourceVersion": "University of Essex accepted full manuscript, 140-page PDF; cover identifies Nature accepted version" } ] }, { "id": "SS04-C5", "label": "重复不等于解释有效", "text": "单次失败不证明原结论错误，单次成功也不证明对效应的因果或理论解释成立。", "scope": "重复研究结果的解释规则", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "多方法、多情境和机制证据共同约束某个具体主张。", "sources": [ "SS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS04-P5", "label": "重复不等于解释有效：必要前提", "text": "观测结果、构念测量、因果识别和跨情境推广属于不同检查。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion Understanding replicability, p.13, paragraphs Failure to replicate and Successful replication", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS04-L5", "label": "重复不等于解释有效：边界", "text": "这是文章阐明的方法论边界，不替任何具体失败研究免责；个案需要具体诊断。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion Understanding replicability, p.13, paragraphs Failure to replicate and Successful replication", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS04-E5", "label": "重复不等于解释有效：原文依据", "text": "Discussion说明失败可能来自抽样、未识别情境调节或执行问题；成功也可能共享混杂或测量缺陷。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion Understanding replicability, p.13, paragraphs Failure to replicate and Successful replication", "fulltextUrl": "https://repository.essex.ac.uk/42105/7/replicability.fullmanuscript.pdf", "sourceVersion": "University of Essex accepted full manuscript, 140-page PDF; cover identifies Nature accepted version" } ] }, { "id": "SS04-V05-C1", "label": "正式版本与已接受稿的限定核对", "text": "For the card’s specified units, effect-size subset and generalizability caveats, the final publication agrees with the Essex accepted text; its SI further details feasibility selection and effect-size conversion assumptions.", "scope": "Specified counts, weighting units, effect-size subset and sampling/interpretation caveats in accepted manuscript versus final Nature article; SI pp.5–6,63–66.", "status": "text_comparison_supported_at_declared_scope", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "发现相同主张的版本差异或更正会改变一致性判断；完整版本差异、原始数据复算和个别重复研究审查仍未执行。", "sources": [ "SS04-V05-S1", "SS04-V05-S2", "SS04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "SS04-V05-P1", "label": "正式版本与已接受稿的限定核对：解释前提", "text": "Match identical DOI/title and report-specific unit/denominator; convert accepted manuscript locators to final printed pages without treating versions as independent studies.", "preciseLocator": "Final printed pp.144–145,147–148 (PDF pp.2–3,5–6); Methods PDF p.9. SI printed pp.5–6,63–66 (PDF pp.6–7,64–67). Accepted PDF pp.6–7,9–10,14,16 (internal pp.5–6,8–9,13,15).", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "SS04-V05-L1", "label": "正式版本与已接受稿的限定核对：边界", "text": "Only named claim-relevant passages compared; no complete line-by-line version diff, full SI audit, individual replication reanalysis, or CI recalculation. The final document is coauthor-hosted, crosschecked against publisher metadata, not publisher-download bytes.", "preciseLocator": "Final printed pp.144–145,147–148 (PDF pp.2–3,5–6); Methods PDF p.9. SI printed pp.5–6,63–66 (PDF pp.6–7,64–67). Accepted PDF pp.6–7,9–10,14,16 (internal pp.5–6,8–9,13,15).", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "SS04-V05-E1", "label": "正式版本与已接受稿的限定核对：原文依据", "text": "Final pp.144–145 retain 151/274=55.1%, paper-weighted80.8/164=49.3%, and13-criterion range28.6–74.8%. Final Table2 p.147 retains157 papers/249 claims and weighted medians r=.25/.10. SI pp.64–66 distinguishes conversion assumptions and feasibility selection; Methods preserves exclusion of27 hybrid replications from main independent outcomes.", "preciseLocator": "Final printed pp.144–145,147–148 (PDF pp.2–3,5–6); Methods PDF p.9. SI printed pp.5–6,63–66 (PDF pp.6–7,64–67). Accepted PDF pp.6–7,9–10,14,16 (internal pp.5–6,8–9,13,15).", "fulltextUrl": "https://ssyoon.github.io/publications/2026_Nature.pdf", "sourceVersion": "Final published Nature 652:143–150, issue 2 April 2026 / online 1 April 2026; coauthor Sangsuk Yoon hosted publisher-layout PDF with article DOI, copyright, full published pages, Methods and Extended Data" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "SS04", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮1项指定资料已核", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及1个有界资料目标：1项指定资料已取得并核对，0项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "社会行为重复研究的最终版与相关补充段落", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "未逐行比较全文、审查全部106页补充材料、重做个别重复研究或重算置信区间。", "共同作者托管的最终版不等于从出版社下载的字节。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "SS04-C1", "SS04-C2", "SS04-C3", "SS04-C4", "SS04-C5", "SS04-V05-C1" ], "limitation_ids": [ "SS04-L1", "SS04-L2", "SS04-L3", "SS04-L4", "SS04-L5", "SS04-V05-L1" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "SS04-G01" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "ED01", "field": "社会与制度", "title": "有效学习怎样跨课堂与制度", "known_core": [ "2023年秋，土耳其一所高中9–11年级开展四次90分钟数学复习；干预发生于练习阶段，随后同场次闭卷闭电脑考试。", "相对对照组，辅助练习分数的意向治疗估计：GPT Base +0.137，GPT Tutor +0.361；均P<0.01。", "随后无辅助考试中，GPT Base相对对照的估计为−0.054（SE 0.022，P<0.05）。", "GPT Tutor的无辅助考试估计为−0.004（SE 0.013），与对照差异不显著；未显示统计显著的无辅助成绩提升。", "常见的48%、127%和17%是系数除以对应对照均值后的相对变化，不是百分点。", "官方 SI 表 A.2 的预注册两两组间 t 检验报告 Tutor−Base 无辅助考试归一化成绩差为 0.028（95% CI 0.005–0.052，p=0.019）；这一比较与主表1的协变量调整、班级聚类回归是不同分析。" ], "frontier_question": "何种教学与 AI 辅助设计在何种学生、语言、学科和制度条件下，能形成离开工具后仍保持、可迁移的能力，并扩大真实学习机会？", "evidence_needed": [ "预注册多校比较常规教学、Base式辅助与分解组件的Tutor式辅助；主要结局为延迟无辅助新题测试，报告基线、缺失、班级聚类、实施强度与教师劳动投入。", "可复现且有精确区间的延迟迁移收益将支持能力形成；收益消失或异质性强则缩小推广范围。" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "机制与实施条件", "跨情境迁移", "长期效果", "测量与教育目的" ], "important_limits": [ "不应简写成每名学生独立随机抽签使用工具。；考试题与刚练过的题概念相近；不是远迁移测试。", "工具可用时的表现，不直接测量离开工具后学会多少。；主回归与预注册的两两t检验不同；不能将表1称为原封不动的预注册模型。", "短期平均成绩下降不能诊断某个学生，不能直接推出永久能力损伤。", "不显著不是等效或无害的证明。；不能仅由一组显著、另一组不显著证明组间差异；表1未给此直接对比。；不能将整套Tutor与Base的差别归因于单一提示特征。 v0.5 补读的官方 SI 表 A.2 另有 Tutor−Base 的直接两两组间 t 检验：归一化成绩差 0.028（95% CI 0.005–0.052，p=0.019）。该结果不是 28% 提升、配对样本检验或主表1的班级聚类回归；也未证明长期收益、对照等效或单一护栏机制。", "换用另一基线均值或指标，百分比也会变化；不等于掌握知识量的比例。", "这是编辑性的适用范围判断，不是论文测得的另一项结局。；聊天行为分析可支持机制假设，尚非独立随机操纵该机制的证明。", "SI revision timestamp not stated; affiliation alignment is not proof of complete version identity. No data/code rerun or independent clustering reanalysis. Direct contrast does not prove equivalence to control, long-term retention, or isolate one guardrail feature." ], "epistemic_mode": "学习机制、课堂实践与制度实施的混合方法研究，并保留教育目的讨论", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "ED01-S01", "title": "Generative AI without guardrails can harm learning: Evidence from high school mathematics", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2422633122", "source_version": "期刊正式发表、在线已更正版本；更正公告日期2025-08-20", "date": "2025-06-25", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "已读官方HTML正文：研究设计、式1、表1、机制分析及表2/图3说明、Discussion、Notes和数据可用性；未重跑代码，未核验原始学生记录；该基线轮次的期刊 SI 链接未能读取；v0.5 经 Europe PMC 另行取得 SI 并读取指定段落，见 ED01-V05-S1，未据此宣称 SI 全部复审。" ], "not_reviewed": [], "independence_group": "ED01_SINGLE_TURKEY_SCHOOL_TRIAL" }, { "source_node_id": "ED01-S02", "title": "Correction for Bastani et al., Generative AI without guardrails can harm learning: Evidence from high school mathematics", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2518204122", "source_version": "官方更正公告", "date": "2025-08-20", "verified_on": "2026-10-03", "reviewed_content": [ "已读更正全文及日期；更正对象仅为Osbert Bastani的作者机构，公告未更改研究结果。" ], "not_reviewed": [], "independence_group": "ED01_SINGLE_TURKEY_SCHOOL_TRIAL" }, { "source_node_id": "ED01-S03", "title": "Generative AI Without Guardrails Can Harm Learning: Evidence from High School Mathematics (author-hosted manuscript)", "url": "https://hamsabastani.github.io/education_llm.pdf", "source_version": "68页作者网站稿件；文件内本次未定位版本日期，不与期刊版页码混用", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-03", "reviewed_content": [ "选择性读取正文相关结果与附录A.1、A.4、A.5、A.6及表3–5；未逐页通读68页。附录A.1标明GPT-4-0613；期刊主结果以S01为准。" ], "not_reviewed": [], "independence_group": "ED01_SINGLE_TURKEY_SCHOOL_TRIAL" }, { "source_node_id": "ED01-V05-S1", "title": "Supplementary Appendix: Generative AI Without Guardrails Can Harm Learning", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC12232635/supplementaryFiles", "source_version": "Official PNAS-associated pnas.2422633122.sapp.pdf via Europe PMC public supplement package; 43 pages; title/authors agree; p.1 Osbert affiliation is Computer and Information Science, consistent with corrected article, but SI itself has no explicit revision date", "date": "SI revision date not printed; affiliation agrees with corrected article; article correction notice 2025-08-20", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "A.1 p.2 model and tool design", "A.4–A.6 pp.7–8 assignment, grading and preregistration", "TableA.2/A.3 p.10 direct contrasts", "B.1/B.2 pp.11–12 noncompliance/alternative analyses", "B.6 pp.17–18 attendance" ], "not_reviewed": [ "SI revision timestamp not stated; affiliation alignment is not proof of complete version identity. No data/code rerun or independent clustering reanalysis. Direct contrast does not prove equivalence to control, long-term retention, or isolate one guardrail feature." ], "independence_group": "ED01_SINGLE_TURKEY_SCHOOL_TRIAL" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "此证据支持把辅助表现与无辅助学习分开评价；尚不能裁决长期保持、远迁移或所有AI导师的整体利弊。", "在多所学校复现时，教师参与设计的AI提示能否在工具撤除数周后，提高新题迁移成绩，而非只提高当场练习分数？" ], "original_field": "教育／学习科学", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "有效学习怎样跨课堂与制度", "current_status": "长期保持、远迁移、普适AI导师利弊与Tutor等效/无害均未确立；正式SI未读。", "limits": "不应简写成每名学生独立随机抽签使用工具。；考试题与刚练过的题概念相近；不是远迁移测试。 工具可用时的表现，不直接测量离开工具后学会多少。；主回归与预注册的两两t检验不同；不能将表1称为原封不动的预注册模型。 短期平均成绩下降不能诊断某个学生，不能直接推出永久能力损伤。 不显著不是等效或无害的证明。；不能仅由一组显著、另一组不显著证明组间差异；表1未给此直接对比。；不能将整套Tutor与Base的差别归因于单一提示特征。 换用另一基线均值或指标，百分比也会变化；不等于掌握知识量的比例。 这是编辑性的适用范围判断，不是论文测得的另一项结局。；聊天行为分析可支持机制假设，尚非独立随机操纵该机制的证明。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "ED01", "title": "有效学习怎样跨课堂与制度", "domain": "社会与制度", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "empirical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "工具帮助当场练习，不等于撤掉工具后学会；该试验的短期考试结果区分了两者。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "ED01-C01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-C06" ], "evidence_ids": [ "ED01-V01", "ED01-V02", "ED01-V03", "ED01-V04", "ED01-V06" ], "source_ids": [ "ED01-S01" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "多校环境中，数周后能否独立解新题，而不只是当场表现更好？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "ED01-Q01" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "延迟无辅助迁移测试，透明班级分配、缺失处理与实施记录。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "ED01-Q01" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "不显著不等于等效；补充材料的组间检验不能冒充主回归。", "node_ids": [ "ED01-L01", "ED01-L02", "ED01-L03", "ED01-L04", "ED01-L05", "ED01-L06", "ED01-V05-L1" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "工具开启与关闭的两扇窗", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "工具帮助当场练习，不等于撤掉工具后学会；该试验的短期考试结果区分了两者。 多校环境中，数周后能否独立解新题，而不只是当场表现更好？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "ED01-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "分开练习、即时考试与延迟迁移", "proposed_artifact": "终点时间图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ED01-Q01", "ED01-C01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-C06" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ED01-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "预注册多校比较及组件", "proposed_artifact": "教学设计", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ED01-Q01", "ED01-C01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-C06" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ED01-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "工具撤除后测试新题", "proposed_artifact": "独立学习记录", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ED01-Q01", "ED01-C01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-C06" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "ED01-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "检验教师投入与异质性", "proposed_artifact": "推广条件表", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "ED01-Q01", "ED01-C01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-C06" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "ED01", "question_id": "ED01-Q01", "all_claim_ids": [ "ED01-C01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-C05", "ED01-C06", "ED01-V05-C1" ], "all_source_ids": [ "ED01-S01", "ED01-S02", "ED01-S03", "ED01-V05-S1" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "ED01-L01", "ED01-L02", "ED01-L03", "ED01-L04", "ED01-L05", "ED01-L06", "ED01-V05-L1" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 1, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "ED01-G01", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Read final/corrected PNAS supplementary information for education trial", "residual_limits": [ "SI revision timestamp not stated; affiliation alignment is not proof of complete version identity. 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"text": "换用另一基线均值或指标，百分比也会变化；不等于掌握知识量的比例。", "preciseLocator": "Table 1，两项处理系数与Control arm mean行；Main Results表1前后效果解释段。", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ED01-V05", "label": "原文定位：百分比的分母", "text": "常见的48%、127%和17%是系数除以对应对照均值后的相对变化，不是百分点。", "preciseLocator": "Table 1，两项处理系数与Control arm mean行；Main Results表1前后效果解释段。", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2422633122", "sourceVersion": "期刊正式发表、在线已更正版本；更正公告日期2025-08-20" } ] }, { "id": "ED01-C06", "label": "外推边界", "text": "此证据支持把辅助表现与无辅助学习分开评价；尚不能裁决长期保持、远迁移或所有AI导师的整体利弊。", "scope": "2023年秋土耳其单校、9–11年级、四次数学复习中的指定GPT-4工具设计；主结果采用PNAS正式表1。", "status": "editorial_scope_assessment", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "跨学校/语言复现，预注册延迟无辅助与新题迁移测验，加上教学实施记录，可扩大或缩小适用边界。", "sources": [ "ED01-S01" ], "premises": [ { "id": "ED01-P06", "label": "前提：外推边界", "text": "接受C02–C04的特定试验估计；教育目标不被一次考试穷尽。", "preciseLocator": "Experimental Design编号步骤3；Discussion最后一段（单校、数学、Fall 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No data/code rerun or independent clustering reanalysis. Direct contrast does not prove equivalence to control, long-term retention, or isolate one guardrail feature.", "preciseLocator": "Official SI A.1 p.2; A.4–A.6 pp.7–8; TablesA.2/A.3 p.10 (visually checked); B.1/B.2 pp.11–12; B.6 pp.17–18", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "ED01-V05-E1", "label": "补充材料中的两两组间比较：原文依据", "text": "A.1 specifies GPT-4-0613; A.4 classes retain assigned arm across4 sessions under scheduling constraints; A.6 separates preregistered t-tests from main clustered regression. TableA.2 p.10 gives Tutor–Base normalized exam-score difference .028,95%CI[.005,.052],p=.019; Tutor–Control −.006,p=.613.", "preciseLocator": "Official SI A.1 p.2; A.4–A.6 pp.7–8; TablesA.2/A.3 p.10 (visually checked); B.1/B.2 pp.11–12; B.6 pp.17–18", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC12232635/supplementaryFiles", "sourceVersion": "Official PNAS-associated pnas.2422633122.sapp.pdf via Europe PMC public supplement package; 43 pages; title/authors agree; p.1 Osbert affiliation is Computer and Information Science, consistent with corrected article, but SI itself has no explicit revision date" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "ED01", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮1项指定资料已核", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及1个有界资料目标：1项指定资料已取得并核对，0项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "教育试验的官方补充分析与组间直接比较", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "SI 自身未标修订日期；作者单位相符不能证明全部版本一致。", "未重跑代码、数据或独立重算聚类。直接比较不证明与对照等效、长期保持或某一个护栏因素的独立作用。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "ED01-C01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-C05", "ED01-C06", "ED01-V05-C1" ], "limitation_ids": [ "ED01-L01", "ED01-L02", "ED01-L03", "ED01-L04", "ED01-L05", "ED01-L06", "ED01-V05-L1" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "ED01-G01" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "LW01", "field": "社会与制度", "title": "法律如何被解释与正当化", "known_core": [ "Bostock记录2020最高法院对该Title VII问题的制度决定。", "多数意见把个体反事实比较与法定文本联系起来，这是法律解释论证而非对真实雇佣行为的统计因果估计。", "本案争议部分在如何识别词组的通常含义及其规范理由，不能简化为一方读文本、另一方完全不读文本。", "Carpentier主张规则归属与内容可区分，并明确承认这不是所有实证主义者共享的划分。", "按作者的论证，道德论证参与裁判不自动决定法律内容的形而上根据，也不能独自证明制度正当性。", "Greenberg argues that practices alone cannot give a rationally intelligible constitutive account of determinate legal content; his proposed value role does not imply that moral attractiveness alone makes a legal proposition true.", "Plunkett proposes a planning-theoretic, conceptual-facts route to meeting Greenberg’s rational-relation challenge, explicitly leaving its full defense unfinished." ], "frontier_question": "文本、先例、制度实践与价值理由各应如何参与法律解释？应怎样分别说明法律实际上如何运行、某种解释为何成立，以及制度是否正当？", "evidence_needed": [ "制度与教义层面：核对相关法域、时间、法律层级、法条、判例和解释传统，并比较相反理由", "经验层面：用透明的案件样本、行为记录与适当因果设计研究裁判、执行和权利实现的实际后果", "概念与规范层面：先区分规范的存在、体系归属、内容与正当性，再明确前提，用一致性、反例和竞争理论检验论证", "比较不同法传统及受影响群体的经验，检验某种解释方法是否依赖未明说的制度条件" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "法律解释分歧", "概念与规范争论", "制度和法域依赖", "经验识别与选择偏差" ], "important_limits": [ "不将本案扩大为所有性别政策、全部法律或2026效力更新；此卡非个案法律建议。", "准确复述判决理由不等于本项目证明其为唯一哲学上正确解释。", "异议不具有多数裁判的决定地位；言语直觉本身不是完整的语料测量研究。", "这是作者原创立场；不是司法裁决、经验事实或法学界共识。", "这是争论中的论证，不证明 Carpentier 已驳倒 Greenberg、Plunkett 或所有 grounding 理论。v0.5 已补读 Greenberg 2004 与 Plunkett 2012 的指定论证段落，分别按其作者归属新增命题；仍未完整复审两文或裁决争论。", "Selected argumentative sections read, not every footnote or all cited literature. This is Greenberg’s argument, not a demonstrated consensus or update to current law.", "Only named sections read; no ruling between competitors or survey of contemporary legal-philosophy consensus. The author’s provisional route must not be reported as an established defeat of Greenberg." ], "epistemic_mode": "制度事实、经验法学、教义解释及规范论证分层处理", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "LW01-S1", "title": "Bostock v. 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intelligibility is an additional premise (pp.164–165).", "preciseLocator": "Legal Theory printed pp.164–165, 173, 178–180, 187–189, 197–198; PDF pp.9–10,18,23–25,32–34,42–43", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LW01-V05-L1", "label": "Greenberg 的构成解释论证：边界", "text": "Selected argumentative sections read, not every footnote or all cited literature. This is Greenberg’s argument, not a demonstrated consensus or update to current law.", "preciseLocator": "Legal Theory printed pp.164–165, 173, 178–180, 187–189, 197–198; PDF pp.9–10,18,23–25,32–34,42–43", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LW01-V05-E1", "label": "Greenberg 的构成解释论证：原文依据", "text": "Greenberg argues practices need independent standards to determine their contribution to legal content; the rational-relation requirement concerns intelligibility of grounding, not goodness of every law. At pp.197–198 he denies that moral attractiveness alone makes a legal proposition true and does not conclusively exclude all internal legal-value accounts.", "preciseLocator": "Legal Theory printed pp.164–165, 173, 178–180, 187–189, 197–198; PDF pp.9–10,18,23–25,32–34,42–43", "fulltextUrl": "https://escholarship.org/content/qt2fr3n5h2/qt2fr3n5h2.pdf", "sourceVersion": "Legal Theory 10 (2004), 157–198 publisher-layout article with UCLA repository cover; repository deposit 2005-08-30 is not publication date" } ] }, { "id": "LW01-V05-C2", "label": "Plunkett 的候选实证主义回应", "text": "Plunkett proposes a planning-theoretic, conceptual-facts route to meeting Greenberg’s rational-relation challenge, explicitly leaving its full defense unfinished.", "scope": "Plunkett 2012, introduction pp.139–143 and proposal/limits pp.199–203.", "status": "source_attributed_argument_conditionally_supported", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "完整论证与批评若显示该路线已完成或无法满足所声明前提，应修改其暂定地位；本轮没有作此裁决。", "sources": [ "LW01-V05-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "LW01-V05-P2", "label": "Plunkett 的候选实证主义回应：解释前提", "text": "Uses a proposed conceptual link between legal institutions and legal norms, plus a particular account of concepts, plans and constitutive explanation.", "preciseLocator": "Printed pp.199–203, especially p.201 (PDF pp.61–65, especially p.63)", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "LW01-V05-L2", "label": "Plunkett 的候选实证主义回应：边界", "text": "Only named sections read; no ruling between competitors or survey of contemporary legal-philosophy consensus. The author’s provisional route must not be reported as an established defeat of Greenberg.", "preciseLocator": "Printed pp.199–203, especially p.201 (PDF pp.61–65, especially p.63)", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "LW01-V05-E2", "label": "Plunkett 的候选实证主义回应：原文依据", "text": "Plunkett combines a version of Shapiro’s planning theory with Chalmers/Jackson-style conceptual facts to make social grounding intelligible (pp.199–200). He explicitly says p.201 that his outline does not conclusively establish those conceptual facts or successful completion of the challenge, and requires defense of planning and grounding accounts.", "preciseLocator": "Printed pp.199–203, especially p.201 (PDF pp.61–65, especially p.63)", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.plunkett.host.dartmouth.edu/a-positivist-route-for.pdf", "sourceVersion": "Legal Theory 18 (2012), 139–207; author-institution hosted publisher-layout PDF with DOI" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "LW01", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮2项指定资料已核", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及2个有界资料目标：2项指定资料已取得并核对，0项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "Greenberg 的原始法律构成论证", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "仅读指定论证部分，未读每条脚注和全部引用文献。", "这是 Greenberg 的论证，不是已确立共识或现行法律更新。" ] }, { "item": "Plunkett 的原始实证主义回应", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "只读指定部分，没有裁决竞争立场或调查当代法哲学共识。", "不可将暂定路径写成已经击败 Greenberg。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "LW01-C1", "LW01-C2", "LW01-C3", "LW01-C4", "LW01-C5", "LW01-V05-C1", "LW01-V05-C2" ], "limitation_ids": [ "LW01-L1", "LW01-L2", "LW01-L3", "LW01-L4", "LW01-L5", "LW01-V05-L1", "LW01-V05-L2" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "LW01-G01", "LW01-G02" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "IK01", "field": "社会与制度", "title": "共同求知由谁决定规则", "known_core": [ "CARE 将集体受益、控制权、责任与伦理并列，并将治理规则及利害评价交由相关原住民族决定。", "2025 年论文提出五类制度安排，从缺少原住民族治理到完全掌握治理权；这是澳大利亚情境中的实施提案。", "框架区分咨询、席位与治理权：多数席位本身不足，正式授权及可执行制度也是关键条件。", "VCSF 应用段建议从第三阶段共同治理起步，以有条件的两至三年目标走向第五阶段；这是建议。", "论文声明未生成或分析数据集；该应用叙述不能单独证明治理安排改善了筛查、健康或集体受益。", "Bartlett and the Marshalls describe Two-Eyed Seeing as situated co-learning with distinct knowledge systems and community knowledge holders; their process account also records institutional conditions that undermined the original undergraduate program." ], "frontier_question": "不同知识体系怎样在各自语境中共同工作、处理不一致并回应实际问题，同时保持相关社群的治理权、知识完整性与受益？", "evidence_needed": [ "由相关治理主体批准的评价问题、标准、方法及资料权限。", "有版本日期的授权与合同；有权限访问的决定、异议、执行及资源记录。", "以社群认可的方式跟踪受益、负担及持续性，并检查替代解释。", "相关治理主体授权评价后，版本明确的制度与实施资料及社群认可的解释可形成新的限定主张。" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "语境与翻译", "知识体系间的可比性", "治理与授权", "目标与评价方式" ], "important_limits": [ "权利和治理原则不是对某项经验性主张的真实性认证；具体适用性须由相应权利主体判断。", "不能由提案推出所有组织必须沿同一路径前进，或完成某阶段就已实现社群所重视的结果。", "席位、投票、资源、申诉、外部机构否决权和日常执行可能并不一致；此处未对任何合作方进行审计。", "没有核验 2026-10-03 的 VCSF 状态；本文建议既不证明已经落实，也不证明后来没有进展。", "没有进行全领域系统综述或后续效果评估检索；文章参考文献中的独立经验依据须另行逐条查验。", "本路线不是通用合规认证，也不能要求社群为外部可验证性公开受限制的知识或个人健康数据。", "Public reading grants no authority over underlying community knowledge or local evaluation. Reported program experiences and uptake are not causal efficacy or enduring implementation evidence; no independent program audit conducted." ], "epistemic_mode": "具地方与关系语境的共同求知；经验检验、解释和研究治理并列", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "IK01-S1", "title": "Implementing Indigenous Data Sovereignty in Australia: A Five-Phase Framework for Indigenous Data Governance", "url": "https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajs4.70086", "source_version": "出版商 Early View／Online Version of Record；PDF 为 Australian Journal of Social Issues, 2025, 0:1–13。", "date": "2025-12-21", "verified_on": "2026-10-03", "reviewed_content": [ "HTML：摘要、§§1–6、Tables 1–3、Appendix A、作者贡献、致谢、Data Availability Statement。", "PDF：pp.1–10 的正文、表格文字及数据可用性声明；校对出版版页码。", "图像未作独立视觉核验；本组件不从图的布局或箭头推导额外结论。" ], "not_reviewed": [ "没有取得或核查 VCSF 内部合同、委员会纪要、实施记录或个体健康资料。", "没有逐一核验参考文献的经验性主张，也未进行后续实施成果的系统检索。" ], "independence_group": "IK01-S1_NORMATIVE_FRAMEWORK_NOT_EFFECT_STUDY" }, { "source_node_id": "IK01-S2", "title": "The CARE Principles for Indigenous Data Governance", "url": "https://datascience.codata.org/articles/10.5334/dsj-2020-043", "source_version": "Data Science Journal 19, article 43；出版商正式 HTML，Practice Papers，同行评审。", "date": "2020-11-04", "verified_on": "2026-10-03", "reviewed_content": [ "摘要、Rationale、Development、Exposition、The CARE Principles and Their Supporting Concepts、The CARE Principles in Action、Conclusion、Acknowledgements。" ], "not_reviewed": [ "未核查各早期采纳机构在 2020 年之后的执行和效果。", "未将文章概述的国际规范直接当作某司法辖区已生效的具体法律意见。" ], "independence_group": "IK01-S2_NORMATIVE_FRAMEWORK_NOT_EFFECT_STUDY" }, { "source_node_id": "IK01-V05-S1", "title": "Two-Eyed Seeing and other lessons learned within a co-learning journey of bringing together indigenous and mainstream knowledges and ways of knowing", "url": "https://iaac-aeic.gc.ca/050/documents/p80156/132968E.pdf", "source_version": "J Environ Stud Sci 2:331–340 (2012), published online 16 August 2012; publisher-layout government-registry PDF", "date": "2012 article; registry deposit revision date not verified", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Abstract/author setting pp.331–332", "program history and eight lessons pp.333–335", "knowledge-holder/authenticity and contextual validation p.337", "uptake/limits p.338" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Public reading grants no authority over underlying community knowledge or local evaluation. Reported program experiences and uptake are not causal efficacy or enduring implementation evidence; no independent program audit conducted." ], "independence_group": "BARTLETT_MARSHALL_MARSHALL_2012_INTEGRATIVE_SCIENCE_PROCESS" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "本地图建议将下一条证据链设为：社群授权的评价规则 → 正式权限 → 实际决定与执行 → 社群认可的结果。", "经相关主体授权开展评价时，VCSF有哪些治理权限已经正式移交、在日常决定中如何行使，并能否带来当地社群认可的受益？" ], "original_field": "原住民族与地方知识／研究治理", "normative": false, "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "evidence_label": "推进所需的证据、授权与参与", "cross_tags": [ "原住民族", "地方知识", "社群治理", "教育与生态" ], "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "共同求知由谁决定规则", "current_status": "没有社群授权的本地评价、治理实况核查或效果验证；不重核Two-Eyed Seeing部分。", "limits": "权利和治理原则不是对某项经验性主张的真实性认证；具体适用性须由相应权利主体判断。 不能由提案推出所有组织必须沿同一路径前进，或完成某阶段就已实现社群所重视的结果。 席位、投票、资源、申诉、外部机构否决权和日常执行可能并不一致；此处未对任何合作方进行审计。 没有核验 2026-10-03 的 VCSF 状态；本文建议既不证明已经落实，也不证明后来没有进展。 没有进行全领域系统综述或后续效果评估检索；文章参考文献中的独立经验依据须另行逐条查验。 本路线不是通用合规认证，也不能要求社群为外部可验证性公开受限制的知识或个人健康数据。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "visual": { "id": "IK01", "title": "共同求知由谁决定规则", "domain": "社会与制度", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "institutional", "normative", "empirical_component" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "CARE 和治理方案说明权利与规则；提案的阶段或席位并不自动证明实际受益。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "IK01-C1", "IK01-C2", "IK01-C3", "IK01-C4", "IK01-C5" ], "evidence_ids": [ "IK01-V11", "IK01-V21", "IK01-V31", "IK01-V41", "IK01-V51", "IK01-V52" ], "source_ids": [ "IK01-S2", "IK01-S1" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "正式权限是否落实，日常决定是否体现治理权，受益由谁评价？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "IK01-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "先获相关主体授权，再读权限、决定和执行记录，并采用社群认可的评价。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "IK01-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "公开文章不给本项目调用社群知识的授权；不能把阶段画成普遍成熟度。", "node_ids": [ "IK01-L1", "IK01-L2", "IK01-L3", "IK01-L4", "IK01-L5", "IK01-L6", "IK01-V05-L1" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "授权钥匙与实际决策门", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "CARE 和治理方案说明权利与规则；提案的阶段或席位并不自动证明实际受益。 正式权限是否落实，日常决定是否体现治理权，受益由谁评价？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "IK01-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "由主体决定可评问题与权限", "proposed_artifact": "授权评价约定", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "IK01-Q1", "IK01-C1", "IK01-C2", "IK01-C3", "IK01-C4", "IK01-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "IK01-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "核对正式权利和资源", "proposed_artifact": "治理文件图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "IK01-Q1", "IK01-C1", "IK01-C2", "IK01-C3", "IK01-C4", "IK01-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "IK01-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "在获准范围追踪实际决定", "proposed_artifact": "执行记录", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "IK01-Q1", "IK01-C1", "IK01-C2", "IK01-C3", "IK01-C4", "IK01-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "IK01-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "由社群解释受益与负担", "proposed_artifact": "有情境的评价", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "IK01-Q1", "IK01-C1", "IK01-C2", "IK01-C3", "IK01-C4", "IK01-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "IK01", "question_id": "IK01-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "IK01-C1", "IK01-C2", "IK01-C3", "IK01-C4", "IK01-C5", "IK01-C6", "IK01-V05-C1" ], "all_source_ids": [ "IK01-S1", "IK01-S2", "IK01-V05-S1" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "IK01-L1", "IK01-L2", "IK01-L3", "IK01-L4", "IK01-L5", "IK01-L6", "IK01-V05-L1" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 1, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "IK01-G01", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Read original Two-Eyed Seeing text from prior card without inferring community authorization", "residual_limits": [ "Public reading grants no authority over underlying community knowledge or local evaluation. 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Reported program experiences and uptake are not causal efficacy or enduring implementation evidence; no independent program audit conducted.", "preciseLocator": "Printed pp.331–335,337–338; PDF pp.1–5,7–8", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "IK01-V05-E1", "label": "Two-Eyed Seeing 的情境化共同学习经验：原文依据", "text": "The authors describe a Cape Breton/Mi’kmaw co-learning process, offer eight lessons and distinguish knowledge systems (pp.334–335). Program history records no new enrolments since 2007 and institutional/resource trouble (p.333). P.337 emphasizes recognized community knowledge holders, topic-specific expertise and living relationships.", "preciseLocator": "Printed pp.331–335,337–338; PDF pp.1–5,7–8", "fulltextUrl": "https://iaac-aeic.gc.ca/050/documents/p80156/132968E.pdf", "sourceVersion": "J Environ Stud Sci 2:331–340 (2012), published online 16 August 2012; publisher-layout government-registry PDF" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "IK01", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮1项指定资料已核", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及1个有界资料目标：1项指定资料已取得并核对，0项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "Two-Eyed Seeing 的原始共同学习文本", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "阅读公开文本不赋予对社群知识或当地评价的权威。", "项目经验和采用情况不等于因果成效或持久实施；没有独立项目审计。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "IK01-C1", "IK01-C2", "IK01-C3", "IK01-C4", "IK01-C5", "IK01-C6", "IK01-V05-C1" ], "limitation_ids": [ "IK01-L1", "IK01-L2", "IK01-L3", "IK01-L4", "IK01-L5", "IK01-L6", "IK01-V05-L1" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "IK01-G01" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "HU01", "field": "人文与艺术", "title": "人类起源的网络历史", "known_core": [ "弱结构祖先史是对现存及有限古基因资料的条件重建，不是直接观察数十万年前的群体。", "允许长期基因交流能改善这些候选模型的拟合；不需要把所有信号都归于长期完全隔离的古人类混入。", "2025研究提供另一种数据支持的祖先结构参数化，仍是指定HMM和脉冲历史下的估计。", "两项工作共同反对过简泛交史，但并未对交换时机、持续性及古人类对应取得唯一答案。", "正式版本仍有正文110–135ka与摘要/表注120–135ka的精度差异；1–4%指当代群体间分化与古stem分化的对应比例。", "2025正式版保留脉冲模型约1.5Ma分裂、约290ka汇合和79:21估计，并明确与2023持续交流模型的假设差异。", "Jebel Irhoud原研究支持镶嵌形态，315±34ka是与化石伴出的加热燧石层位定年；不是该遗传模型某一分裂的直接测年。" ], "frontier_question": "非洲各地区的祖先群体怎样交汇，形态、文化与基因变化的先后关系是什么？", "evidence_needed": [ "补足地理和时间上稀疏的化石、古 DNA 或古蛋白", "用独立定年和不同遗传统计检验竞争模型", "尊重相关社群，对采样偏差与模型可辨识性作透明说明" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "历史证据缺失", "模型非唯一性", "分类与取样" ], "important_limits": [ "缺乏同时代非洲古DNA；现存群体不能直接等同于稳定古代stem。", "同一批基因统计不能算多次独立复制；作者仍允许结构与古人类混合并存的更复杂模型。", "本轮不据遗传模型裁决化石分类、形态或文化史；已补读2017化石及定年原文指定段落，但未独立重验形态或定年。", "1000GP与先前研究部分复用；不是独立化石证实的固定80/20起源故事。", "相异结果不是自动互相否定；原文将差异可能归于模型空间，尚无本轮独立裁决。", "不得把1–4%写成总祖源比例，或把窄区间视作人类单一起点；抽样bootstrap不穷尽模型设定误差。此不一致未被冒充为正式版更正。", "不排除更多分裂、汇合或持续基因流；不是以更新年份裁决模型优劣，也不是已与化石一一对应的80/20起源史。", "未独立重建化石、重算剂量或裁决物种归属；不能从一个遗址推出唯一地理起源。" ], "epistemic_mode": "历史经验重建：残存证据约束多个可能叙事", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "HU01-S1", "title": "A weakly structured stem for human origins in Africa", "url": "https://apragsdale.github.io/african-structure-paper/_downloads/98deb932360076cb8d052781c1cc2138/paper.pdf", "source_version": "author-hosted 14-page manuscript; title/author identity matches 2023 Nature paper; manuscript exact revision date not printed", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Results and sampling pp.2–3", "A weakly structured stem and Table1 pp.3–5", "Reconciling lines of genetic evidence p.5", "Discussion and Contrasting ancestral structure pp.6–8" ], "not_reviewed": [ "supplementary data and simulations", "2017 Jebel Irhoud original fossil paper", "current restricted genomic data" ], "independence_group": "HUMAN_ORIGINS_SHARED_1000GP_GENOMES_PARTIAL_OVERLAP" }, { "source_node_id": "HU01-S2", "title": "A structured coalescent model reveals deep ancestral structure shared by all modern humans", "url": "https://api.repository.cam.ac.uk/server/api/core/bitstreams/da430a5f-bc49-4527-aa16-7083680e3489/content", "source_version": "Cambridge author manuscript, 27-page line-numbered PDF", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Results lines57–135 pp.3–4", "Inference on human data lines137–179 p.5", "Discussion lines273–342 pp.8–9", "Methods model-fitting lines754–770 p.21" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all cited studies", "raw data and executable analysis" ], "independence_group": "HUMAN_ORIGINS_SHARED_1000GP_GENOMES_PARTIAL_OVERLAP" }, { "source_node_id": "HU01-V05-S1", "title": "A weakly structured stem for human origins in Africa", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC10208968/fullTextXML", "source_version": "Nature617,755–763 (2023), publisher XML PMC10208968.1; official SI with Nature DOI cover and author date March16,2023", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Final publisher XML: A Late Pleistocene common ancestry; A weakly structured stem within Africa; Discussion / Contrasting ancestral structure models", "Final XML body interval110–135ka, abstract/Table1 footnote120–135ka; Table1 point estimates135ka and119ka." ], "not_reviewed": [ "Not complete line-by-line manuscript diff", "No raw genomic access or simulation replication", "Main manuscript exact revision date remains unverified", "Abstract/body interval discrepancy retained; requires author clarification or exact interpretation, not silently harmonized" ], "independence_group": "HUMAN_ORIGINS_SHARED_1000GP_GENOMES_PARTIAL_OVERLAP" }, { "source_node_id": "HU01-V05-S2", "title": "A structured coalescent model reveals deep ancestral structure shared by all modern humans", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-025-02117-1", "source_version": "Nature Genetics57,856–864, VOR2025-03-18 publisher HTML compared with Cambridge line-numbered manuscript", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Final Results: Inference on human data; Fig.4", "Final Discussion paragraphs comparing ref.16, limitations and ancient-genome mapping", "Final Methods: Model summaries" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Not whole-paper redline or complete SI audit", "No model fit/rerun", "No ranking of modern populations" ], "independence_group": "HUMAN_ORIGINS_SHARED_1000GP_GENOMES_PARTIAL_OVERLAP" }, { "source_node_id": "HU01-V05-S3", "title": "New fossils from Jebel Irhoud, Morocco and the pan-African origin of Homo sapiens", "url": "https://www.eva.mpg.de/fileadmin/content_files/human_evolution/Homo_Sapiens_presskit/nature22336_Hublin.pdf", "source_version": "2017 Nature original early-online publisher PDFs hosted by Max Planck; internal pages1 onward rather than final volume pagination", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Hublin original PDFpp.1–3; facial reconstruction Fig.1 and morphological comparison Fig.3 captions" ], "not_reviewed": [ "No independent fossil reconstruction or dosimetry recalculation", "No claim to update every later fossil date", "Early-online layout retained in locators" ], "independence_group": "JEBEL_IRHOUD2017_FOSSILS_AND_CONTEXT_DATES" }, { "source_node_id": "HU01-V05-S4", "title": "The age of the hominin fossils from Jebel Irhoud, Morocco, and the origins of the Middle Stone Age", "url": "https://www.eva.mpg.de/fileadmin/content_files/human_evolution/Homo_Sapiens_presskit/nature22335_McPherron.pdf", "source_version": "2017 Nature original early-online publisher PDFs hosted by Max Planck; internal pages1 onward rather than final volume pagination", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Richter original PDFpp.1–3; Table1 and following paragraph giving weighted layer7 context age" ], "not_reviewed": [ "No independent fossil reconstruction or dosimetry recalculation", "No claim to update every later fossil date", "Early-online layout retained in locators" ], "independence_group": "JEBEL_IRHOUD2017_FOSSILS_AND_CONTEXT_DATES" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "不能把模型内较窄区间或某一分裂时间画成人类唯一出生时间与发源地。", "非洲祖先群体如何分合并交流，哪些模型能被独立遗传、化石和定年证据区分，形态及文化事件又如何对应？" ], "original_field": "人类学／考古", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "人类起源的网络历史", "current_status": "非洲祖先群体如何分合并交流，哪些模型能被独立遗传、化石和定年证据区分，形态及文化事件又如何对应？", "limits": "缺乏同时代非洲古DNA；现存群体不能直接等同于稳定古代stem。 同一批基因统计不能算多次独立复制；作者仍允许结构与古人类混合并存的更复杂模型。 本轮不据遗传模型裁决化石分类、形态或文化史；未重验2017化石证据。 1000GP与先前研究部分复用；不是独立化石证实的固定80/20起源故事。 相异结果不是自动互相否定；原文将差异可能归于模型空间，尚无本轮独立裁决。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "HU01", "title": "人类起源的网络历史", "domain": "人文与艺术", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "historical", "empirical" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "基因模型与化石定年约束不同历史对象；多种祖先交流模型仍可解释部分资料。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "HU01-C1", "HU01-C4", "HU01-C5", "HU01-V05-C3" ], "evidence_ids": [ "HU01-E1", "HU01-E4", "HU01-V05-E2", "HU01-E5", "HU01-V05-E3" ], "source_ids": [ "HU01-S1", "HU01-S2", "HU01-V05-S2", "HU01-V05-S3", "HU01-V05-S4" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "怎样用独立遗传、化石和定年证据区分人类起源的网络历史？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "HU01-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "地理时间更均匀的材料、独立定年和竞争模型检验。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "HU01-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "模型分裂时间不是人类唯一生日；祖源代理不等于稳定古代族群。", "node_ids": [ "HU01-L1", "HU01-L2", "HU01-L3", "HU01-L4", "HU01-L5", "HU01-V05-L1", "HU01-V05-L2", "HU01-V05-L3" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "汇合分流的历史网", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "基因模型与化石定年约束不同历史对象；多种祖先交流模型仍可解释部分资料。 怎样用独立遗传、化石和定年证据区分人类起源的网络历史？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "HU01-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "分开遗传事件、形态与层位", "proposed_artifact": "历史对象卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU01-Q1", "HU01-C1", "HU01-C4", "HU01-C5", "HU01-V05-C3" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU01-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "追踪采样空白和模型假设", "proposed_artifact": "证据地图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU01-Q1", "HU01-C1", "HU01-C4", "HU01-C5", "HU01-V05-C3" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU01-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "以独立材料检验分合路线", "proposed_artifact": "候选历史比较", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU01-Q1", "HU01-C1", "HU01-C4", "HU01-C5", "HU01-V05-C3" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU01-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "记录能区分和仍相容之处", "proposed_artifact": "开放历史重建", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU01-Q1", "HU01-C1", "HU01-C4", "HU01-C5", "HU01-V05-C3" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "HU01", "question_id": "HU01-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "HU01-C1", "HU01-C2", "HU01-C3", "HU01-C4", "HU01-C5", "HU01-V05-C1", "HU01-V05-C2", "HU01-V05-C3" ], "all_source_ids": [ "HU01-S1", "HU01-S2", "HU01-V05-S1", "HU01-V05-S2", "HU01-V05-S3", "HU01-V05-S4" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "HU01-L1", "HU01-L2", "HU01-L3", "HU01-L4", "HU01-L5", "HU01-V05-L1", "HU01-V05-L2", "HU01-V05-L3" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 3, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "HU01-G01", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Retrieve 2023 Nature final manuscript and relevant supplement; identify author-version differences", "residual_limits": [ "Not complete line-by-line manuscript diff", "No raw genomic access or simulation replication", "Main manuscript exact revision date remains unverified", "Abstract/body interval discrepancy retained; requires author clarification or exact interpretation, not silently harmonized" ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" }, { "id": "HU01-G02", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Check 2025 Cambridge manuscript against publication/version metadata and scoped passages", "residual_limits": [ "Not whole-paper redline or complete SI audit", "No model fit/rerun", "No ranking of modern populations" ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" }, { "id": "HU01-G03", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "target": "Read recorded unreviewed 2017 Jebel Irhoud original fossil paper relevant dating scope", "residual_limits": [ "No independent fossil reconstruction or dosimetry recalculation", "No claim to update every later fossil date", "Early-online layout retained in locators" ], "exact_needed_source": null, "audit_disposition": "pass_scoped_text_resolution" } ] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "HU01-C1", "label": "现代样本与模型的对应", "text": "弱结构祖先史是对现存及有限古基因资料的条件重建，不是直接观察数十万年前的群体。", "scope": "2023作者稿的四非洲群体及辅助样本", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "更均匀地理样本、早期非洲古DNA/蛋白及独立校时。", "sources": [ "HU01-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU01-P1", "label": "现代样本与模型的对应：必要前提", "text": "所选群体、统计量、重组与时间标定能约束候选模型；采样覆盖仍有限。", "preciseLocator": "author manuscript Results opening, p.2; Introduction four classes of models pp.1–2", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU01-L1", "label": "现代样本与模型的对应：边界", "text": "缺乏同时代非洲古DNA；现存群体不能直接等同于稳定古代stem。", "preciseLocator": "author manuscript Results opening, p.2; Introduction four classes of models pp.1–2", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU01-E1", "label": "现代样本与模型的对应：原文依据", "text": "2023作者稿用多个非洲群体、英国样本和Vindija尼安德特基因组计算单位点及双位点统计，再拟合群体分裂、规模、迁移和混合。", "preciseLocator": "author manuscript Results opening, p.2; Introduction four classes of models pp.1–2", "fulltextUrl": "https://apragsdale.github.io/african-structure-paper/_downloads/98deb932360076cb8d052781c1cc2138/paper.pdf", "sourceVersion": "author-hosted 14-page manuscript; title/author identity matches 2023 Nature paper; manuscript exact revision date not printed" } ] }, { "id": "HU01-C2", "label": "迁移改善指定模型拟合", "text": "允许长期基因交流能改善这些候选模型的拟合；不需要把所有信号都归于长期完全隔离的古人类混入。", "scope": "该作者稿指定候选模型比较", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "替代模型在独立统计或新样本预测更好，可改变相对偏好。", "sources": [ "HU01-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU01-P2", "label": "迁移改善指定模型拟合：必要前提", "text": "比较限定所测试模型族及似然统计；拟合优势不是对全部可能历史的穷尽证明。", "preciseLocator": "A weakly structured stem within Africa pp.3–4, Table1 and following paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU01-L2", "label": "迁移改善指定模型拟合：边界", "text": "同一批基因统计不能算多次独立复制；作者仍允许结构与古人类混合并存的更复杂模型。", "preciseLocator": "A weakly structured stem within Africa pp.3–4, Table1 and following paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU01-E2", "label": "迁移改善指定模型拟合：原文依据", "text": "Table1与正文比较有/无stem间迁移；连续迁移和多次合并模型均可较好描述数据，参数与拓扑依赖模型。", "preciseLocator": "A weakly structured stem within Africa pp.3–4, Table1 and following paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "https://apragsdale.github.io/african-structure-paper/_downloads/98deb932360076cb8d052781c1cc2138/paper.pdf", "sourceVersion": "author-hosted 14-page manuscript; title/author identity matches 2023 Nature paper; manuscript exact revision date not printed" } ] }, { "id": "HU01-C3", "label": "模型内区间小不等于历史确定", "text": "不能把模型内较窄区间或某一分裂时间画成人类唯一出生时间与发源地。", "scope": "深历史时间和地理解释的边界", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "多模型共同预测、可靠独立定年及新化石古分子资料。", "sources": [ "HU01-S1", "HU01-V05-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU01-P3", "label": "模型内区间小不等于历史确定：必要前提", "text": "参数、模型和资料不足三层不确定性须分开，地理对应在文中有推测标签。", "preciseLocator": "p.3 A weakly structured stem, confidence-interval paragraph; Discussion p.6 opening two paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU01-L3", "label": "模型内区间小不等于历史确定：边界", "text": "本轮不据遗传模型裁决化石分类、形态或文化史；已补读2017化石及定年原文指定段落，但未独立重验形态或定年。", "preciseLocator": "p.3 A weakly structured stem, confidence-interval paragraph; Discussion p.6 opening two paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" }, { "id": "HU01-V05-L1", "label": "正式正文与SI的精确定义：限制", "text": "不得把1–4%写成总祖源比例，或把窄区间视作人类单一起点；抽样bootstrap不穷尽模型设定误差。此不一致未被冒充为正式版更正。", "preciseLocator": "Final main: A Late Pleistocene common ancestry; A weakly structured stem within Africa; Discussion/Contrasting ancestral structure models; Official SI §3.2 printed p.10 lines430–452; §5.2 printed p.12 lines531–554; §6 opening printed p.14; Author main p.2 body:110–135ka and abstract:120–135ka; final publisher XML A Late Pleistocene common ancestry retains110–135ka while final abstract/Table1 footnote use120–135ka.", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU01-E3", "label": "模型内区间小不等于历史确定：原文依据", "text": "作者明确模型假设比bootstrap区间更影响参数；Discussion列分裂、迁移、规模混淆及新增stem/混合模型可能。", "preciseLocator": "p.3 A weakly structured stem, confidence-interval paragraph; Discussion p.6 opening two paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "https://apragsdale.github.io/african-structure-paper/_downloads/98deb932360076cb8d052781c1cc2138/paper.pdf", "sourceVersion": "author-hosted 14-page manuscript; title/author identity matches 2023 Nature paper; manuscript exact revision date not printed" }, { "id": "HU01-V05-E1", "label": "正式正文与SI的精确定义：原文依据", "text": "The original author body and final publisher XML both contain110–135ka, whereas their abstracts/Table1 footnote use120–135ka. This is a source-internal precision mismatch, not an author-to-final correction. Table1 specifies135ka continuous migration and119ka merger estimates. Official SI defines the1–4% shared-differentiation result through an f-statistic projection; it is not1–4% total ancestry. Composite likelihood, block-bootstrap intervals and model assumptions remain important.", "preciseLocator": "Final main: A Late Pleistocene common ancestry; A weakly structured stem within Africa; Discussion/Contrasting ancestral structure models; Official SI §3.2 printed p.10 lines430–452; §5.2 printed p.12 lines531–554; §6 opening printed p.14; Author main p.2 body:110–135ka and abstract:120–135ka; final publisher XML A Late Pleistocene common ancestry retains110–135ka while final abstract/Table1 footnote use120–135ka.", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC10208968/fullTextXML", "sourceVersion": "Nature617,755–763 (2023), publisher XML PMC10208968.1; official SI with Nature DOI cover and author date March16,2023" } ] }, { "id": "HU01-C4", "label": "2025方法给另一结构方案", "text": "2025研究提供另一种数据支持的祖先结构参数化，仍是指定HMM和脉冲历史下的估计。", "scope": "2025作者稿cob​​raa模型与数据（去除零宽字符不影响方法名）", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "允许持续迁移、多次混合及变动B规模后比较预测与可辨识性。", "sources": [ "HU01-S2", "HU01-V05-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU01-P4", "label": "2025方法给另一结构方案：必要前提", "text": "B群体规模固定、分离间隔隔离、离散时间及突变/代际标定；参数数目与拟合需共同考虑。", "preciseLocator": "Results Identifiability lines57–82 pp.3; Inference on human data lines137–170 p.5; Fig.4 caption pp.11–12", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU01-L4", "label": "2025方法给另一结构方案：边界", "text": "1000GP与先前研究部分复用；不是独立化石证实的固定80/20起源故事。", "preciseLocator": "Results Identifiability lines57–82 pp.3; Inference on human data lines137–170 p.5; Fig.4 caption pp.11–12", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" }, { "id": "HU01-V05-L2", "label": "2025正式版本核对：限制", "text": "不排除更多分裂、汇合或持续基因流；不是以更新年份裁决模型优劣，也不是已与化石一一对应的80/20起源史。", "preciseLocator": "Final Results: Inference on human data; Fig.4; Final Discussion paragraphs comparing ref.16, limitations and ancient-genome mapping; Final Methods: Model summaries; Cambridge lines137–179,289–299,754–770", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU01-E4", "label": "2025方法给另一结构方案：原文依据", "text": "cobraa利用相邻共祖时间转换信息，在26个1000GP个体及HGDP比较结构与泛交模型；作者稿给约1.5Ma分离、约290ka混合及79/21祖源比例。", "preciseLocator": "Results Identifiability lines57–82 pp.3; Inference on human data lines137–170 p.5; Fig.4 caption pp.11–12", "fulltextUrl": "https://api.repository.cam.ac.uk/server/api/core/bitstreams/da430a5f-bc49-4527-aa16-7083680e3489/content", "sourceVersion": "Cambridge author manuscript, 27-page line-numbered PDF" }, { "id": "HU01-V05-E2", "label": "2025正式版本核对：原文依据", "text": "Final results preserve~1.5Ma split,~290ka admixture and79:21 ancestry within the fitted pulse model. The final Discussion retains the manuscript’s explicit comparison with Ragsdale2023: isolation after splitting versus continuous gene flow, and flexible major-lineage size/bottleneck versus fixed stem-size assumptions. Methods constrain the ghost population size because of identifiability. No scoped numerical reversal found in compared passages.", "preciseLocator": "Final Results: Inference on human data; Fig.4; Final Discussion paragraphs comparing ref.16, limitations and ancient-genome mapping; Final Methods: Model summaries; Cambridge lines137–179,289–299,754–770", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-025-02117-1", "sourceVersion": "Nature Genetics57,856–864, VOR2025-03-18 publisher HTML compared with Cambridge line-numbered manuscript" } ] }, { "id": "HU01-C5", "label": "新方案未消除模型分歧", "text": "两项工作共同反对过简泛交史，但并未对交换时机、持续性及古人类对应取得唯一答案。", "scope": "2023/2025的明确方法比较", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "统一数据与模拟、共同模型空间及新古基因资料的交叉检验。", "sources": [ "HU01-S2", "HU01-V05-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU01-P5", "label": "新方案未消除模型分歧：必要前提", "text": "需比较模型允许什么，而不能只比较某个数值；不同方法的共享数据限制独立性。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion lines289–299 p.8 and caveats lines321–342 p.9", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU01-L5", "label": "新方案未消除模型分歧：边界", "text": "相异结果不是自动互相否定；原文将差异可能归于模型空间，尚无本轮独立裁决。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion lines289–299 p.8 and caveats lines321–342 p.9", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" }, { "id": "HU01-V05-L2", "label": "2025正式版本核对：限制", "text": "不排除更多分裂、汇合或持续基因流；不是以更新年份裁决模型优劣，也不是已与化石一一对应的80/20起源史。", "preciseLocator": "Final Results: Inference on human data; Fig.4; Final Discussion paragraphs comparing ref.16, limitations and ancient-genome mapping; Final Methods: Model summaries; Cambridge lines137–179,289–299,754–770", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU01-E5", "label": "新方案未消除模型分歧：原文依据", "text": "Discussion直接比较Ragsdale：其持续基因流与近约100–120ka合并，和cobraa隔离后约300ka混合不同；作者承认多次事件或持续交流不能排除。", "preciseLocator": "Discussion lines289–299 p.8 and caveats lines321–342 p.9", "fulltextUrl": "https://api.repository.cam.ac.uk/server/api/core/bitstreams/da430a5f-bc49-4527-aa16-7083680e3489/content", "sourceVersion": "Cambridge author manuscript, 27-page line-numbered PDF" }, { "id": "HU01-V05-E2", "label": "2025正式版本核对：原文依据", "text": "Final results preserve~1.5Ma split,~290ka admixture and79:21 ancestry within the fitted pulse model. The final Discussion retains the manuscript’s explicit comparison with Ragsdale2023: isolation after splitting versus continuous gene flow, and flexible major-lineage size/bottleneck versus fixed stem-size assumptions. Methods constrain the ghost population size because of identifiability. No scoped numerical reversal found in compared passages.", "preciseLocator": "Final Results: Inference on human data; Fig.4; Final Discussion paragraphs comparing ref.16, limitations and ancient-genome mapping; Final Methods: Model summaries; Cambridge lines137–179,289–299,754–770", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-025-02117-1", "sourceVersion": "Nature Genetics57,856–864, VOR2025-03-18 publisher HTML compared with Cambridge line-numbered manuscript" } ] }, { "id": "HU01-V05-C1", "label": "正式正文与SI的精确定义", "text": "正式版本仍有正文110–135ka与摘要/表注120–135ka的精度差异；1–4%指当代群体间分化与古stem分化的对应比例。", "scope": "Only named passages and source versions; no replication or expert review.", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "Author correction, independent validation, missing source recovery or expert review changes the scoped interpretation.", "sources": [ "HU01-V05-S1", "HU01-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU01-V05-P1", "label": "正式正文与SI的精确定义：条件", "text": "Table1连续迁移模型135ka、合并模型119ka；SI §5.2通过f统计量投影定义分化比例。", "preciseLocator": "Final main: A Late Pleistocene common ancestry; A weakly structured stem within Africa; Discussion/Contrasting ancestral structure models; Official SI §3.2 printed p.10 lines430–452; §5.2 printed p.12 lines531–554; §6 opening printed p.14; Author main p.2 body:110–135ka and abstract:120–135ka; final publisher XML A Late Pleistocene common ancestry retains110–135ka while final abstract/Table1 footnote use120–135ka.", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU01-V05-L1", "label": "正式正文与SI的精确定义：限制", "text": "不得把1–4%写成总祖源比例，或把窄区间视作人类单一起点；抽样bootstrap不穷尽模型设定误差。此不一致未被冒充为正式版更正。", "preciseLocator": "Final main: A Late Pleistocene common ancestry; A weakly structured stem within Africa; Discussion/Contrasting ancestral structure models; Official SI §3.2 printed p.10 lines430–452; §5.2 printed p.12 lines531–554; §6 opening printed p.14; Author main p.2 body:110–135ka and abstract:120–135ka; final publisher XML A Late Pleistocene common ancestry retains110–135ka while final abstract/Table1 footnote use120–135ka.", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU01-V05-E1", "label": "正式正文与SI的精确定义：原文依据", "text": "The original author body and final publisher XML both contain110–135ka, whereas their abstracts/Table1 footnote use120–135ka. This is a source-internal precision mismatch, not an author-to-final correction. Table1 specifies135ka continuous migration and119ka merger estimates. Official SI defines the1–4% shared-differentiation result through an f-statistic projection; it is not1–4% total ancestry. 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The final Discussion retains the manuscript’s explicit comparison with Ragsdale2023: isolation after splitting versus continuous gene flow, and flexible major-lineage size/bottleneck versus fixed stem-size assumptions. Methods constrain the ghost population size because of identifiability. No scoped numerical reversal found in compared passages.", "preciseLocator": "Final Results: Inference on human data; Fig.4; Final Discussion paragraphs comparing ref.16, limitations and ancient-genome mapping; Final Methods: Model summaries; Cambridge lines137–179,289–299,754–770", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-025-02117-1", "sourceVersion": "Nature Genetics57,856–864, VOR2025-03-18 publisher HTML compared with Cambridge line-numbered manuscript" } ] }, { "id": "HU01-V05-C3", "label": "化石与定年的不同对象", "text": "Jebel Irhoud原研究支持镶嵌形态，315±34ka是与化石伴出的加热燧石层位定年；不是该遗传模型某一分裂的直接测年。", "scope": "Only named passages and source versions; no replication or expert review.", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "Author correction, independent validation, missing source recovery or expert review changes the scoped interpretation.", "sources": [ "HU01-V05-S3", "HU01-V05-S4" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU01-V05-P3", "label": "化石与定年的不同对象：条件", "text": "化石形态论文与直接定年伴随论文共同阅读；层7加权TL背景年龄与Irhoud3牙US/ESR重新估年分开。", "preciseLocator": "Hublin original PDF pp.1–3, facial reconstruction Fig.1 and morphological comparison Fig.3 captions; Richter original PDF pp.1–3; Table1 and paragraph following: weighted layer7 context age", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU01-V05-L3", "label": "化石与定年的不同对象：限制", "text": "未独立重建化石、重算剂量或裁决物种归属；不能从一个遗址推出唯一地理起源。", "preciseLocator": "Hublin original PDF pp.1–3, facial reconstruction Fig.1 and morphological comparison Fig.3 captions; Richter original PDF pp.1–3; Table1 and paragraph following: weighted layer7 context age", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU01-V05-E3", "label": "化石与定年的不同对象：原文依据", "text": "Fossils combine comparatively modern facial/dental features with more primitive neurocranial form. The315±34ka age refers to a weighted thermoluminescence context age of heated flints associated with layer7 fossils; the companion paper recalculates Irhoud3 tooth U-series/ESR as286±32ka. These dates constrain fossil context and mosaic anatomy, not genomic lineage splits or one exclusive geographic birthplace.", "preciseLocator": "Hublin original PDF pp.1–3, facial reconstruction Fig.1 and morphological comparison Fig.3 captions; Richter original PDF pp.1–3; Table1 and paragraph following: weighted layer7 context age", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.eva.mpg.de/fileadmin/content_files/human_evolution/Homo_Sapiens_presskit/nature22336_Hublin.pdf", "sourceVersion": "2017 Nature original early-online publisher PDFs hosted by Max Planck; internal pages1 onward rather than final volume pagination" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "HU01", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮3项指定资料已核", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及3个有界资料目标：3项指定资料已取得并核对，0项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "2023 年人类祖先结构论文的最终版与补充资料", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "不能悄悄统一两个区间或推定存在更正，需要作者澄清或精确解释。", "未逐行对照全稿、访问原始基因组或复现模拟；作者稿精确修订日未确认。" ] }, { "item": "2025 年 Cambridge 稿与最终出版结果", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "未制作全文差异表或完整 SI 审计，未重跑模型拟合。", "不能据此排列当代人群高低。" ] }, { "item": "Jebel Irhoud 化石及相关测年原文", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "未独立重建化石或重算剂量学。", "不声称更新全部后续化石年代；定位保留早期在线版页码。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "HU01-C1", "HU01-C2", "HU01-C3", "HU01-C4", "HU01-C5", "HU01-V05-C1", "HU01-V05-C2", "HU01-V05-C3" ], "limitation_ids": [ "HU01-L1", "HU01-L2", "HU01-L3", "HU01-L4", "HU01-L5", "HU01-V05-L1", "HU01-V05-L2", "HU01-V05-L3" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "HU01-G01", "HU01-G02", "HU01-G03" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "HU02", "field": "人文与艺术", "title": "语言、迁徙与文化传播", "known_core": [ "词汇数据库记录的是经语言学判断的形式与同源关系，不是人口移动、文化身份或语言年代的直接读数。", "2025批评列出词项争议并质疑拓扑与年代；结论承认输入数据已明显改善。它重用原后验树，足以要求敏感性检验，但不是全库错误率估计、独立采样复制或已经推翻整个家族树。", "这批古DNA能比较限定候选群体间的遗传混合历史；样本数量与模型拟合不能直接成为全欧亚迁徙人口普查。", "中部安纳托利亚祖源结果收窄了候选历史，却没有仅凭最佳遗传拟合唯一定位移民的实际出发群体。", "DNA与语言史的关联是依赖传播假设的综合解释，不能直接读出古人所说语言，也未排除所有不伴明显基因混合的转语路径。", "2025批评的MRC树重用2023的后验样本；其结论承认输入策划改善，并将主要疑问扩至拓扑、年代、接触/语言同塑（独立产生的相似特征）和性状数量。", "2025Nature更正只补作者单位；不能解释或抹平作者稿428、正文367+68和出版摘要435之间的版本差异。" ], "frontier_question": "哪些人口移动与语言转换相连，哪些是接触、借词、精英转语或文化扩散？", "evidence_needed": [ "协调但不混同语言亲缘、考古文化与遗传祖源", "公开同源词编码，比较树模型、接触网络和定年先验", "寻找新铭文、可靠定年以及更均匀的古 DNA 样本" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "历史不可观测性", "模型与先验", "多种解释路径" ], "important_limits": [ "本轮未逐项审计全部词表；官方数据库说明也不能代替2023论文的定年模型与先验核验。", "5个词表不是161个词表的代表性统计样本；本卡不裁定每一争议词源，也不把重复使用同一数据算独立复制。", "俄罗斯及特定墓地集中，伴随论文部分共用个体；PCA轴与模型来源也不等于实际稳定族群或语言共同体。", "来源代理不是实际祖先的身份证；正文承认源群体不确定，语言身份在个体层面不可知。", "作者的重建具有支持理由但非直接语言测量；没有铭文的样本不能因此获得确定语言或民族标签。", "2023完整正文和百页SI仍未读，不能据此裁决其先验/稳健性辩护；批评不是撤稿或全词表错误率估计。", "完整更正版布局仍缺；不把单位更正视为科学结论被撤回。古DNA测祖源，个体语言或族群身份仍非直接可观测量。" ], "epistemic_mode": "历史重建与跨证据解释", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "HU02-S1", "title": "IE-CoR: Indo-European Cognate Relationships database documentation", "url": "https://iecor.clld.org/", "source_version": "rendered 2026-10-04; application source f98c9f0 exposed; database content revision not specified", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "What are Cognate Relationships?", "The IE-CoR Database System", "IE-CoR: for the Indo-European family; all landing-page explanatory paragraphs" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all individual lexical records and coding histories", "2023 Science complete article and supplement", "database executable phylogenetic analyses" ], "independence_group": "IECOR_SHARED_LEXICAL_DATA_AND_CRITICAL_REANALYSIS" }, { "source_node_id": "HU02-S2", "title": "Do ‘language trees with sampled ancestors’ really support a ‘hybrid model’ for the origin of Indo-European? Thoughts on the most recent attempt at yet another IE phylogeny", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-025-04986-7", "source_version": "published HTML; Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 12, article 682 (2025)", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Introduction", "Dataset (IE-CoR), selection paragraph and Standard Bulgarian, Hittite, Gothic, Peloponnese Tsakonian Greek and Kashmiri subsections", "Genealogical tree opening methodological paragraphs", "2026-10-04 additional reading: Genealogical tree; Discussion and conclusions, including MRC reconstruction and shared posterior-tree dependence" ], "not_reviewed": [ "independent recoding or historical-linguistic adjudication of every disputed item", "all references and supplementary datasets" ], "independence_group": "IECOR_SHARED_LEXICAL_DATA_AND_CRITICAL_REANALYSIS" }, { "source_node_id": "HU02-S3", "title": "The genetic origin of the Indo-Europeans", "url": "https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2025_LazaridisPattersonAnthonyVyazov_IndoEuropean_Nature_0.pdf", "source_version": "author-laboratory hosted publisher early-online PDF, printed online pages 1 onward; do not substitute final volume pages 132–142 for these locators", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "online p.2 sampling and Three pre-Bronze Age genetic clines", "online p.6 CLV impact in Armenia and Anatolia", "online p.8 The origin of Indo-Anatolian languages", "online p.9 final two columns comparing eastern/western routes" ], "not_reviewed": [ "complete supplementary information and individual sequence data", "qpAdm reproduction", "full revised publisher layout after affiliation correction" ], "independence_group": "LAZARIDIS_2025_EURASIAN_ANCIENT_DNA_WITH_COMPANION_DATA_OVERLAP" }, { "source_node_id": "HU02-V05-S1", "title": "Guide to Supplementary Data and Results Files, and Online Resources for Heggarty et al.(2023)", "url": "https://zenodo.org/api/records/8147476/files/Guide_to_Data_and_Results_Files.pdf/content", "source_version": "Science381,eabg0818,28July2023; supplementary-data Guide version in Zenodo8147476 v1,28July2023; old8090561 explicitly superseded", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Guide to Data and Results Files PDFpp.1–5 §§1–3 and p.7 §5.1; no2023 Science main article or100-pageSI contained here" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Full2023 main and claim-relevantSI needed to adjudicate robustness/prior claims", "No independent lexical adjudication or tree rerun", "No evidence of retraction found in checked metadata, not an exhaustive guarantee" ], "independence_group": "IECOR_SHARED_LEXICAL_DATA_AND_CRITICAL_REANALYSIS" }, { "source_node_id": "HU02-V05-S2", "title": "Author Correction: The genetic origin of the Indo-Europeans", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08789-3", "source_version": "Nature639,E14; published20February2025", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Author Correction substantive paragraph: second affiliation for Viktor Trifonov; correction date and linked-original DOI" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Final revised publisher PDF/layout still not obtained", "PMC accepted manuscript is not final corrected layout", "No raw ancientDNA or qpAdm reproduction", "Numerical manuscript inconsistency is not attributed to affiliation correction" ], "independence_group": "LAZARIDIS_2025_EURASIAN_ANCIENT_DNA_WITH_COMPANION_DATA_OVERLAP" }, { "source_node_id": "HU02-V05-S3", "title": "The Genetic Origin of the Indo-Europeans (accepted author manuscript)", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11922553/fullTextXML", "source_version": "PMC11922553 explicitly author manuscript,available19March2025", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "PMC11922553 accepted-manuscript abstract:428 individuals; Introduction:367newly reported plus68improved datasets; author-manuscript version label" ], "not_reviewed": [ "Final revised publisher PDF/layout still not obtained", "PMC accepted manuscript is not final corrected layout", "No raw ancientDNA or qpAdm reproduction", "Numerical manuscript inconsistency is not attributed to affiliation correction" ], "independence_group": "LAZARIDIS_2025_EURASIAN_ANCIENT_DNA_WITH_COMPANION_DATA_OVERLAP" } ], "frontier_detail": [ "哪些语言变化确与人口移动相连，哪些由接触、借词或转语造成；不同证据怎样在不混同祖源、语言与文化身份的前提下相互约束？" ], "original_field": "历史语言学／考古", "normative": false, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "语言、迁徙与文化传播", "current_status": "哪些语言变化确与人口移动相连，哪些由接触、借词或转语造成；不同证据怎样在不混同祖源、语言与文化身份的前提下相互约束？", "limits": "本轮未逐项审计全部词表；官方数据库说明也不能代替2023论文的定年模型与先验核验。 5个词表不是161个词表的代表性统计样本；本卡不裁定每一争议词源，也不把重复使用同一数据算独立复制。 俄罗斯及特定墓地集中，伴随论文部分共用个体；PCA轴与模型来源也不等于实际稳定族群或语言共同体。 来源代理不是实际祖先的身份证；正文承认源群体不确定，语言身份在个体层面不可知。 作者的重建具有支持理由但非直接语言测量；没有铭文的样本不能因此获得确定语言或民族标签。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "v05_scoped_material_and_version_update", "expert_review": "pending", "known_label": "已有依据的认识与分歧", "visual": { "id": "HU02", "title": "语言、迁徙与文化传播", "domain": "人文与艺术", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "historical", "empirical", "interpretive" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "同源词、古 DNA 和考古材料各测不同东西；祖源不能直接读出语言或文化身份。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "HU02-C1", "HU02-C3", "HU02-C4", "HU02-C5" ], "evidence_ids": [ "HU02-E1", "HU02-E3", "HU02-E4", "HU02-E5" ], "source_ids": [ "HU02-S1", "HU02-S3" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "哪些语言变化来自人口移动，哪些来自接触、借词或转语？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "HU02-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "公开编码、树与接触网络比较、新铭文、定年及更均匀古 DNA。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "HU02-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "参考群体不是祖先身份证；语言批评不自动等于家族树已推翻。", "node_ids": [ "HU02-L1", "HU02-L2", "HU02-L3", "HU02-L4", "HU02-L5", "HU02-V05-L1", "HU02-V05-L2" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "语言、祖源与物质文化三层地图", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "同源词、古 DNA 和考古材料各测不同东西；祖源不能直接读出语言或文化身份。 哪些语言变化来自人口移动，哪些来自接触、借词或转语？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "HU02-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "分开三类证据及版本", "proposed_artifact": "来源对应表", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU02-Q1", "HU02-C1", "HU02-C3", "HU02-C4", "HU02-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU02-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "审查词项、先验和来源代理", "proposed_artifact": "敏感性检查", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU02-Q1", "HU02-C1", "HU02-C3", "HU02-C4", "HU02-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU02-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "比较迁徙与转语等路径", "proposed_artifact": "竞争解释图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU02-Q1", "HU02-C1", "HU02-C3", "HU02-C4", "HU02-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU02-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "加入铭文及新材料", "proposed_artifact": "相互约束的历史", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU02-Q1", "HU02-C1", "HU02-C3", "HU02-C4", "HU02-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "HU02", "question_id": "HU02-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "HU02-C1", "HU02-C2", "HU02-C3", "HU02-C4", "HU02-C5", "HU02-V05-C1", "HU02-V05-C2" ], "all_source_ids": [ "HU02-S1", "HU02-S2", "HU02-S3", "HU02-V05-S1", "HU02-V05-S2", "HU02-V05-S3" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "HU02-L1", "HU02-L2", "HU02-L3", "HU02-L4", "HU02-L5", "HU02-V05-L1", "HU02-V05-L2" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 2, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [ { "id": "HU02-G01", "status": "partial", "target": "Read 2023 Science article and claim-relevant supplement/chronology", "residual_limits": [ "Full2023 main and claim-relevantSI needed to adjudicate robustness/prior claims", "No independent lexical adjudication or tree rerun", "No evidence of retraction found in checked metadata, not an exhaustive guarantee" ], "exact_needed_source": { "source": "Science381,eabg0818(2023) full main article and100-page SI, DOI10.1126/science.abg0818", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abg0818", "detail": "Tree-age, prior and robustness argument remains unread; recovered Guide/posterior archives are different materials." }, "audit_disposition": "pass_partial_disposition" }, { "id": "HU02-G02", "status": "partial", "target": "Check 2025 Nature genetic study affiliation correction and final-layout claim impact", "residual_limits": [ "Final revised publisher PDF/layout still not obtained", "PMC accepted manuscript is not final corrected layout", "No raw ancientDNA or qpAdm reproduction", "Numerical manuscript inconsistency is not attributed to affiliation correction" ], "exact_needed_source": { "source": "Full revised publisher layout of Nature639,132–142, DOI10.1038/s41586-024-08531-5, after affiliation correction10.1038/s41586-025-08789-3", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08531-5", "detail": "Corrected complete layout still unavailable; PMC accepted abstract428 and body367+68 must not be silently equated with final435 or explained by affiliation correction." }, "audit_disposition": "pass_partial_disposition" } ] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "HU02-C1", "label": "同源词编码是特定观测层", "text": "词汇数据库记录的是经语言学判断的形式与同源关系，不是人口移动、文化身份或语言年代的直接读数。", "scope": "IE-CoR的公开操作定义和数据组织", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "公开版本化编码、不同专家复核和树/接触网络敏感性分析。", "sources": [ "HU02-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU02-P1", "label": "同源词编码是特定观测层：必要前提", "text": "概念选择、词项取舍、借词识别和同源编码必须可检查，才能把其用作谱系推断输入。", "preciseLocator": "IE-CoR landing page: What are Cognate Relationships? paragraphs 1–3; 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Standard Bulgarian, Hittite, Gothic, Peloponnese Tsakonian Greek and Kashmiri subsections", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU02-L2", "label": "2025批评针对可定位的编码选择：边界", "text": "5个词表不是161个词表的代表性统计样本；本卡不裁定每一争议词源，也不把重复使用同一数据算独立复制。", "preciseLocator": "Dataset (IE-CoR): paragraph beginning Relying on our own expertise; Standard Bulgarian, Hittite, Gothic, Peloponnese Tsakonian Greek and Kashmiri subsections", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" }, { "id": "HU02-V05-L1", "label": "语言学争议及共享输入：限制", "text": "2023完整正文和百页SI仍未读，不能据此裁决其先验/稳健性辩护；批评不是撤稿或全词表错误率估计。", "preciseLocator": "Official author Guide pp.1–5 §1–3 and p.7 §5.1; data ZIP inventory; Publisher/MPG abstract and DOI metadata; actual2023 full main and100-pageSI not obtained; New re-read of2025 critique Genealogical tree and Discussion and conclusions", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU02-E2", "label": "2025批评针对可定位的编码选择：原文依据", "text": "Kassian与Starostin说明按自己的专长抽查161个词表中的5个，总体肯定词汇资料质量；同时在Gothic的同义词取舍以及Tsakonian、Kashmiri的借词/继承分类提出具体反例。", "preciseLocator": "Dataset (IE-CoR): paragraph beginning Relying on our own expertise; 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It does not supply the full original tree-age argument or100-pageSI. The 2025 critique reconstructs MRC from the original posterior trees with25% burn-in, so that comparison is dependent re-expression, not independent sampling. Its conclusion says input errors are not the key shortcoming, placing more weight on topology, taxon/character ratio, contact/homoplasy and chronology.", "preciseLocator": "Official author Guide pp.1–5 §1–3 and p.7 §5.1; data ZIP inventory; Publisher/MPG abstract and DOI metadata; actual2023 full main and100-pageSI not obtained; New re-read of2025 critique Genealogical tree and Discussion and conclusions", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/8147476", "sourceVersion": "Science381,eabg0818,28July2023; supplementary-data Guide version in Zenodo8147476 v1,28July2023; old8090561 explicitly superseded" } ] }, { "id": "HU02-C3", "label": "古DNA样本和模型比较的单位", "text": "这批古DNA能比较限定候选群体间的遗传混合历史；样本数量与模型拟合不能直接成为全欧亚迁徙人口普查。", "scope": "该2025研究的435个体分析与指定竞争框架", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "更均匀时空古DNA、未采样地区材料和独立候选模型预测检验。", "sources": [ "HU02-S3" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU02-P3", "label": "古DNA样本和模型比较的单位：必要前提", "text": "取样时空、来源代理与遗传漂变模型可合理约束候选解释；缺失群体仍可能改变拟合。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.2, paragraph beginning We present a genetic analysis; Three pre-Bronze Age genetic clines, qpWave/qpAdm competition paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU02-L3", "label": "古DNA样本和模型比较的单位：边界", "text": "俄罗斯及特定墓地集中，伴随论文部分共用个体；PCA轴与模型来源也不等于实际稳定族群或语言共同体。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.2, paragraph beginning We present a genetic analysis; Three pre-Bronze Age genetic clines, qpWave/qpAdm competition paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU02-E3", "label": "古DNA样本和模型比较的单位：原文依据", "text": "原文报告367个新增个体并提升68个个体数据质量，共435；本文正式报告其中291与63，其余属伴随研究；超过80%来自俄罗斯。p.2说明以qpWave/qpAdm比较候选混合来源，先对外群过滤，再在候选来源间竞争。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.2, paragraph beginning We present a genetic analysis; Three pre-Bronze Age genetic clines, qpWave/qpAdm competition paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2025_LazaridisPattersonAnthonyVyazov_IndoEuropean_Nature_0.pdf", "sourceVersion": "author-laboratory hosted publisher early-online PDF, printed online pages 1 onward; do not substitute final volume pages 132–142 for these locators" } ] }, { "id": "HU02-C4", "label": "拟合祖源不唯一指认迁徙源", "text": "中部安纳托利亚祖源结果收窄了候选历史，却没有仅凭最佳遗传拟合唯一定位移民的实际出发群体。", "scope": "文中早青铜、亚述殖民与古赫梯时期的中部安纳托利亚样本", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "迁徙路径上更早、连续样本及独立年代和铭文材料。", "sources": [ "HU02-S3" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU02-P4", "label": "拟合祖源不唯一指认迁徙源：必要前提", "text": "年代约束、模型适配与语言学推断须分项呈现；统计适配不能替代时间先后。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.6, CLV impact in Armenia and Anatolia, paragraphs beginning We show that Central Anatolians and The exact source of the steppe ancestry", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU02-L4", "label": "拟合祖源不唯一指认迁徙源：边界", "text": "来源代理不是实际祖先的身份证；正文承认源群体不确定，语言身份在个体层面不可知。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.6, CLV impact in Armenia and Anatolia, paragraphs beginning We show that Central Anatolians and The exact source of the steppe ancestry", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU02-E4", "label": "拟合祖源不唯一指认迁徙源：原文依据", "text": "安纳托利亚段给多个可拟合来源方案；作者明确无法精确确定草原祖源的具体来源，并结合时间及语言分支理由排除部分统计可行解释。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.6, CLV impact in Armenia and Anatolia, paragraphs beginning We show that Central Anatolians and The exact source of the steppe ancestry", "fulltextUrl": "https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2025_LazaridisPattersonAnthonyVyazov_IndoEuropean_Nature_0.pdf", "sourceVersion": "author-laboratory hosted publisher early-online PDF, printed online pages 1 onward; do not substitute final volume pages 132–142 for these locators" } ] }, { "id": "HU02-C5", "label": "语言传播仍需要跨证据桥梁", "text": "DNA与语言史的关联是依赖传播假设的综合解释，不能直接读出古人所说语言，也未排除所有不伴明显基因混合的转语路径。", "scope": "该文关于印欧—安纳托利亚起源和传播路线的条件解释", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "新铭文、可可靠关联的考古层位、早期路径样本及竞争传播模型。", "sources": [ "HU02-S3" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU02-P5", "label": "语言传播仍需要跨证据桥梁：必要前提", "text": "须分别检验语言、基因、考古年代是否协调，并保留接触、精英转语或资料缺失等替代机制。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.8, The origin of Indo-Anatolian languages, paragraphs beginning We use and Yamnaya and Anatolians; p.9 final two columns, Second, the attestation…", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU02-L5", "label": "语言传播仍需要跨证据桥梁：边界", "text": "作者的重建具有支持理由但非直接语言测量；没有铭文的样本不能因此获得确定语言或民族标签。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.8, The origin of Indo-Anatolian languages, paragraphs beginning We use and Yamnaya and Anatolians; p.9 final two columns, Second, the attestation…", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU02-E5", "label": "语言传播仍需要跨证据桥梁：原文依据", "text": "p.8把共同CLV祖源联系到原始印欧—安纳托利亚语时，显式保留早期无混合语言转移的例外，也说不能辨认最初说前印欧—安纳托利亚语的人；p.9承认绕过本地人或海路可解释没有欧洲祖源。", "preciseLocator": "publisher early-online PDF p.8, The origin of Indo-Anatolian languages, paragraphs beginning We use and Yamnaya and Anatolians; p.9 final two columns, Second, the attestation…", "fulltextUrl": "https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2025_LazaridisPattersonAnthonyVyazov_IndoEuropean_Nature_0.pdf", "sourceVersion": "author-laboratory hosted publisher early-online PDF, printed online pages 1 onward; do not substitute final volume pages 132–142 for these locators" } ] }, { "id": "HU02-V05-C1", "label": "语言学争议及共享输入", "text": "2025批评的MRC树重用2023的后验样本；其结论承认输入策划改善，并将主要疑问扩至拓扑、年代、接触/语言同塑（独立产生的相似特征）和性状数量。", "scope": "Only named passages and source versions; no replication or expert review.", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "Author correction, independent validation, missing source recovery or expert review changes the scoped interpretation.", "sources": [ "HU02-V05-S1", "HU02-S1", "HU02-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU02-V05-P1", "label": "语言学争议及共享输入：条件", "text": "Guide说明相同IE-CoR矩阵到BEAST输入/输出；批评用原posterior trees并舍弃25% burn-in，未建立新的独立词汇样本。", "preciseLocator": "Official author Guide pp.1–5 §1–3 and p.7 §5.1; data ZIP inventory; Publisher/MPG abstract and DOI metadata; actual2023 full main and100-pageSI not obtained; New re-read of2025 critique Genealogical tree and Discussion and conclusions", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU02-V05-L1", "label": "语言学争议及共享输入：限制", "text": "2023完整正文和百页SI仍未读，不能据此裁决其先验/稳健性辩护；批评不是撤稿或全词表错误率估计。", "preciseLocator": "Official author Guide pp.1–5 §1–3 and p.7 §5.1; data ZIP inventory; Publisher/MPG abstract and DOI metadata; actual2023 full main and100-pageSI not obtained; New re-read of2025 critique Genealogical tree and Discussion and conclusions", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU02-V05-E1", "label": "语言学争议及共享输入：原文依据", "text": "Original Guide verifies the binary matrix of161 language taxa and4990 columns (4820 cognate sets plus170 ascertainment columns) and the BEAST input/output dependence. It does not supply the full original tree-age argument or100-pageSI. The 2025 critique reconstructs MRC from the original posterior trees with25% burn-in, so that comparison is dependent re-expression, not independent sampling. Its conclusion says input errors are not the key shortcoming, placing more weight on topology, taxon/character ratio, contact/homoplasy and chronology.", "preciseLocator": "Official author Guide pp.1–5 §1–3 and p.7 §5.1; data ZIP inventory; Publisher/MPG abstract and DOI metadata; actual2023 full main and100-pageSI not obtained; New re-read of2025 critique Genealogical tree and Discussion and conclusions", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/8147476", "sourceVersion": "Science381,eabg0818,28July2023; supplementary-data Guide version in Zenodo8147476 v1,28July2023; old8090561 explicitly superseded" } ] }, { "id": "HU02-V05-C2", "label": "更正范围与版本数字", "text": "2025Nature更正只补作者单位；不能解释或抹平作者稿428、正文367+68和出版摘要435之间的版本差异。", "scope": "Only named passages and source versions; no replication or expert review.", "status": "source_reported_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "Author correction, independent validation, missing source recovery or expert review changes the scoped interpretation.", "sources": [ "HU02-V05-S2", "HU02-V05-S3", "HU02-S3" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU02-V05-P2", "label": "更正范围与版本数字：条件", "text": "更正原文、出版摘要、作者机构PDF和PMC作者稿逐项区分；遗传史与Indo-Anatolian/Indo-European术语范围另须对齐。", "preciseLocator": "Correction paragraph and final HTML author-affiliation61; Author-lab published PDFpp.1–2,8–10; PMC11922553 author manuscript abstract and Introduction; Crossref correction relation", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU02-V05-L2", "label": "更正范围与版本数字：限制", "text": "完整更正版布局仍缺；不把单位更正视为科学结论被撤回。古DNA测祖源，个体语言或族群身份仍非直接可观测量。", "preciseLocator": "Correction paragraph and final HTML author-affiliation61; Author-lab published PDFpp.1–2,8–10; PMC11922553 author manuscript abstract and Introduction; Crossref correction relation", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU02-V05-E2", "label": "更正范围与版本数字：原文依据", "text": "Correction adds Viktor Trifonov’s second affiliation only; no results amendment is stated. Publisher final abstract reports435 individuals; PMC accepted-manuscript abstract reports428 while its Introduction says367 newly reported plus68 improved datasets. The author-lab early-online PDF matches435 but lacks added affiliation. These versions must not be silently mixed. No complete corrected-layout article comparison was possible.", "preciseLocator": "Correction paragraph and final HTML author-affiliation61; Author-lab published PDFpp.1–2,8–10; PMC11922553 author manuscript abstract and Introduction; Crossref correction relation", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08789-3", "sourceVersion": "Nature639,E14; published20February2025" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "HU02", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮2项资料目标；2项仍有缺口", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及2个有界资料目标：0项指定资料已取得并核对，2项部分取得，0项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "2023 年语言谱系原文与模型方法", "status": "partial", "gap": [ "仍需2023年全文及与稳健性／先验相关的 SI。", "未独立裁决词汇编码或重跑谱系树；检查到的元数据无撤稿记录不等于穷尽保证。" ] }, { "item": "2025 年古 DNA 论文单位更正与最终版边界", "status": "partial", "gap": [ "PMC 接受稿不等于修订后的最终排版；仍需该最终 PDF。", "未复现古 DNA 或 qpAdm 分析，遗传证据不能单独确定语言身份。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "HU02-C1", "HU02-C2", "HU02-C3", "HU02-C4", "HU02-C5", "HU02-V05-C1", "HU02-V05-C2" ], "limitation_ids": [ "HU02-L1", "HU02-L2", "HU02-L3", "HU02-L4", "HU02-L5", "HU02-V05-L1", "HU02-V05-L2" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "HU02-G01", "HU02-G02" ] }, "updates": [ { "gap_id": "HU02-G01", "card_id": "HU02", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "finding": "新恢复UJI官方仓储27页稿件，题名仍为early origin，带审稿用途标记、SA1–SA8与旧补充编号，不能认作2023最终排版。稿件Results报告8120 BP（6740–9610，95%后验可信区间（HPD）），此处BP以2000 CE为现在；先验中位5815 BP与后验8120 BP分开。它补到早期论证，不关闭正式主文/SI缺口。", "reading_extent": [ "稿件p.1题名；p.3摘要及版本用途标记；pp.5–6模型/根龄/先验；pp.7–10 Validation and Robustness Analyses；p.25 Fig.4图注；p.5已目视核验；作者支持页§§3,7,9" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Language trees with sampled ancestors support an early origin of the Indo-European languages", "url": "https://repositori.uji.es/bitstreams/4f2daaa2-73b3-4a55-b42b-f3399d6d1017/download", "locator": "27页稿件pp.5–6,7–10,25；与正式版版本身份未确立", "access": "200_PDF", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "题名/审稿标记表明非最终排版；确切稿次未定" }, { "title": "Author support page", "url": "https://paulheggarty.info/indoeuropean/", "locator": "§3两种补充文本区分；§9校准、借词、拓扑、直接祖先敏感性检验对应位置", "access": "public_author_page", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "IE-CoR official free link", "url": "https://iecor.clld.org/", "locator": "首页出版商许可链接及SI链接", "access": "public_links;linked_Science_routes_403", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Science original and SI", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abg0818", "locator": "正式主文；science.abg0818_sm.pdf", "access": "403_no_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Max Planck metadata", "url": "https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_3522769", "locator": "files:gea0087.pdf visibility PRIVATE", "access": "public_metadata_only_private_file_not_fetched", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null } ], "remaining_gap": "仍缺2023正式主文与约100页原SI，无法完成稿件→正式版对照；未独立复算或逐词专家裁定。", "next_action": "先把正式主文、SI、M3输入/输出锁定为同一版本；再做prior-only与posterior比较、去掉Vedic/Avestan校准、借词编码替代、拓扑与直接祖先约束的交叉敏感性检验。检验根龄分布/支系支持而不只比较中位数；古DNA祖源时间和语言分化时间必须分列。", "conclusion_impact": "source_version_refinement;no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "先把正式主文、SI、M3输入/输出锁定为同一版本；再做prior-only与posterior比较、去掉Vedic/Avestan校准、借词编码替代、拓扑与直接祖先约束的交叉敏感性检验。检验根龄分布/支系支持而不只比较中位数；古DNA祖源时间和语言分化时间必须分列。", "new_material": [ "新恢复869939字节/27页官方仓储稿；SHA256 05d59d429e9abd53b49663654bcf5db63b7efe27c454b93953fc89ca61994de7" ], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "HU02-S1", "HU02-S2", "HU02-C1", "HU02-C2", "HU02-L1", "HU02-L2", "HU02-Q1" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "印欧语言研究正文与年代", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "HU02-G02", "card_id": "HU02", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "finding": "出版社当前摘要仍435，单位更正仍只补Viktor Trifonov第二单位。机构PDF仍为旧单位布局；PMC作者稿摘要428、正文367+68的分歧仍在。出版社.pdf端点返回HTML预览，完整更正后排版未恢复；不能把428→435解释为单位更正。", "reading_extent": [ "当前出版社摘要、更新标记、订阅预览；更正实质段及单位61；Reich PDF p.1摘要/作者单位和p.2人数；PMC XML摘要及Introduction" ], "sources": [ { "title": "The genetic origin of the Indo-Europeans", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08531-5", "locator": "摘要435；订阅预览；单位61", "access": "public_abstract_not_complete_main", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "Nature639,132–142,2025" }, { "title": "Author Correction", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08789-3", "locator": "唯一更正实质段；Viktor Trifonov单位61", "access": "public_correction", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "2025-02-20" }, { "title": "Reich laboratory paper", "url": "https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2025_LazaridisPattersonAnthonyVyazov_IndoEuropean_Nature_0.pdf", "locator": "pp.1–2；Trifonov仅单位60", "access": "200_PDF", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "早期排版，非修正单位布局" }, { "title": "PMC author manuscript XML", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11922553/fullTextXML", "locator": "abstract428；Introduction367新增+68提高质量", "access": "200_XML", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "作者稿非最终排版" } ], "remaining_gap": "完整更正后PDF/主文未得；428差异原因未定，不能以加法或单位更正替代解释。", "next_action": "先取得完整修订版并逐一比对样本编号、排除条件和重复个体，再用同一入组清单检查435。独立复算祖源模型时锁定人群/外群与不确定性；语言身份推断另外列出所需考古/语言学假设。", "conclusion_impact": "no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "先取得完整修订版并逐一比对样本编号、排除条件和重复个体，再用同一入组清单检查435。独立复算祖源模型时锁定人群/外群与不确定性；语言身份推断另外列出所需考古/语言学假设。", "new_material": [], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "HU02-S3", "HU02-C3", "HU02-L3", "HU02-C5", "HU02-Q1" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "古DNA研究单位更正", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" } ] }, { "id": "HU03", "field": "人文与艺术", "title": "证据怎样改变历史叙事", "known_core": "本卡已核查的限定结果与论证：研究重建的是入样、保存并通过筛选的特定墓葬人群；80个古个体不能代表整个斯瓦希里社会或全部世纪。 模型中的非洲、波斯或印度相关祖源是相对参考样本的遗传关系，不能直接量化文化归属或赋予某古人确定民族身份。 资料支持特定样本人群中亚洲相关男性与非洲相关女性贡献的偏向；单凭这个模式不能断定婚姻、奴役、强迫或具体权力关系。 混合时间和来源的相容性可提高某类跨海联系叙事的可信度，却不独自证实编年史每个人名、航行、精英谱系或文明起源说。", "frontier_question": "新证据能确认哪些历史事件，又怎样避免把遗传结果误当成文化身份、权力关系或自我理解的完整答案？", "evidence_needed": [ "补足普通人、内陆地区、较早年代与不同墓地的材料", "与文本、物质文化和口述史交叉检验", "区分可证伪的事件主张、语境解释和当代身份诉求" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "档案与样本偏差", "解释多元", "概念不等价" ], "important_limits": "精英墓地和肯尼亚北部偏重，早期时期及其他海岸地区稀缺；海洋食物库效应也可能使碳日期偏老。 参考群体、未采样来源和模型选择都会影响解读；遗传距离并不测量文化创造、语言使用或身份认同。 多种社会过程可产生相似遗传格局；原文的社会历史解释需要墓葬、制度与文本材料独立支撑。 本轮没有独立校勘编年史版本；遗传支持部分历史联系，不等于认可全部叙事或外源文明论。 参与者不是所有社群的代表；作者报告的咨询也不授权本项目重新使用个人基因数据或替人定义身份。", "epistemic_mode": "经验事实与诠释问题并列", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "HU03-S1", "title": "Entwined African and Asian genetic roots of medieval peoples of the Swahili coast", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05754-w", "source_version": "published Nature HTML main article and Methods as retrieved 2026-10-04; DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-05754-w", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Main: Kilwa Chronicle and historical interpretation opening paragraphs", "Dataset overview", "Proportions of Persian and Indian ancestry", "Relating medieval to present-day Swahili coast peoples", "Discussion", "Methods: Inclusion and ethics statement; qpAdm ancestry modelling; Sex-biased admixture" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all supplementary tables and sequence files", "independent archaeological or oral-history source re-editions", "replication of ancestry or admixture-date estimates" ], "independence_group": "SWAHILI_2023_ANCIENT_DNA_AND_ASSOCIATED_HISTORY_STUDY" } ], "frontier_detail": "新遗传证据能改变哪些可检验的历史事件主张；哪些社会过程、文化意义与当代身份问题仍要由文本、考古、社区知识和明确解释理由共同约束？", "original_field": "历史／考古／人文解释", "normative": false, "known_label": "已有材料与历史解释", "evidence_label": "推进所需的材料与解释", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "证据怎样改变历史叙事", "current_status": "截至2026-10-04，斯瓦希里古DNA改变了特定墓葬人群的祖源重建；关于社会过程、口述传统和当代身份的解释仍需独立材料。 领域专家复核待完成。", "limits": "精英墓地和肯尼亚北部偏重，早期时期及其他海岸地区稀缺；海洋食物库效应也可能使碳日期偏老。 参考群体、未采样来源和模型选择都会影响解读；遗传距离并不测量文化创造、语言使用或身份认同。 多种社会过程可产生相似遗传格局；原文的社会历史解释需要墓葬、制度与文本材料独立支撑。 本轮没有独立校勘编年史版本；遗传支持部分历史联系，不等于认可全部叙事或外源文明论。 参与者不是所有社群的代表；作者报告的咨询也不授权本项目重新使用个人基因数据或替人定义身份。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "primary_passages_checked", "expert_review": "pending", "visual": { "id": "HU03", "title": "证据怎样改变历史叙事", "domain": "人文与艺术", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "historical", "empirical", "interpretive" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "特定墓葬样本支持部分跨海祖源联系，但不能独自解释社会机制或证实整篇编年史。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-C4" ], "evidence_ids": [ "HU03-E1", "HU03-E2", "HU03-E3", "HU03-E4" ], "source_ids": [ "HU03-S1" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "哪些事件主张可被新证据改变，哪些意义解释仍需多类材料约束？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "HU03-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "更广的样本、文本校勘、物质文化和社区知识的交叉检验。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "HU03-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "基因不测文化创造或身份真伪；同一格局可由多种社会过程造成。", "node_ids": [ "HU03-L1", "HU03-L2", "HU03-L3", "HU03-L4", "HU03-L5" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "四种史料并排照亮一段历史", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "特定墓葬样本支持部分跨海祖源联系，但不能独自解释社会机制或证实整篇编年史。 哪些事件主张可被新证据改变，哪些意义解释仍需多类材料约束？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "HU03-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "先画墓地和年代的样本边界", "proposed_artifact": "来源地图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU03-Q1", "HU03-C1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU03-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "区分祖源估计与社会解释", "proposed_artifact": "推断层次卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU03-Q1", "HU03-C1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU03-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "比较文本、考古与社区知识", "proposed_artifact": "交叉证据图", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU03-Q1", "HU03-C1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU03-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "说明哪些叙事改变、哪些保留", "proposed_artifact": "有边界的历史解释", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU03-Q1", "HU03-C1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-C4" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "HU03", "question_id": "HU03-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "HU03-C1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-C4", "HU03-C5" ], "all_source_ids": [ "HU03-S1" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "HU03-L1", "HU03-L2", "HU03-L3", "HU03-L4", "HU03-L5" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 0, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "HU03-C1", "label": "墓葬资料并非全社会随机样本", "text": "研究重建的是入样、保存并通过筛选的特定墓葬人群；80个古个体不能代表整个斯瓦希里社会或全部世纪。", "scope": "所测沿海城镇及Makwasinyi古样本，不推广到未采样人群", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "普通人墓地、十二世纪前材料、更多海岸与内陆样本及稳健年代校正。", "sources": [ "HU03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU03-P1", "label": "墓葬资料并非全社会随机样本：必要前提", "text": "真实性、覆盖度与日期分配可信；墓葬选择与筛除机制需要和人口推断一起记录。", "preciseLocator": "Dataset overview, first four paragraphs, including paragraphs beginning We generated and We excluded; Discussion sampling-limit paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU03-L1", "label": "墓葬资料并非全社会随机样本：边界", "text": "精英墓地和肯尼亚北部偏重，早期时期及其他海岸地区稀缺；海洋食物库效应也可能使碳日期偏老。", "preciseLocator": "Dataset overview, first four paragraphs, including paragraphs beginning We generated and We excluded; Discussion sampling-limit paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU03-E1", "label": "墓葬资料并非全社会随机样本：原文依据", "text": "Dataset overview从156份骨骼样本制作179个文库，80个个体通过真实性检验；仅33人有直接放射性碳日期，其余结合考古或亲属线索。用于较高分辨率全基因组分析的54人另排除了低覆盖、近亲、污染等个体。", "preciseLocator": "Dataset overview, first four paragraphs, including paragraphs beginning We generated and We excluded; Discussion sampling-limit paragraph", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05754-w", "sourceVersion": "published Nature HTML main article and Methods as retrieved 2026-10-04; DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-05754-w" } ] }, { "id": "HU03-C2", "label": "祖源标签是比较代理", "text": "模型中的非洲、波斯或印度相关祖源是相对参考样本的遗传关系，不能直接量化文化归属或赋予某古人确定民族身份。", "scope": "本研究所定义的祖源代理与混合模型", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "更接近迁徙时空的古参考样本、替代来源比较和独立历史证据。", "sources": [ "HU03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU03-P2", "label": "祖源标签是比较代理：必要前提", "text": "代理样本与历史来源相关，但未必就是实际来源人口；合适拟合须与其他可能来源比较。", "preciseLocator": "Dataset overview final paragraph defining ancestry terminology; Proportions of Persian and Indian ancestry opening paragraphs; Methods qpAdm ancestry modelling", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU03-L2", "label": "祖源标签是比较代理：边界", "text": "参考群体、未采样来源和模型选择都会影响解读；遗传距离并不测量文化创造、语言使用或身份认同。", "preciseLocator": "Dataset overview final paragraph defining ancestry terminology; Proportions of Persian and Indian ancestry opening paragraphs; Methods qpAdm ancestry modelling", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU03-E2", "label": "祖源标签是比较代理：原文依据", "text": "Dataset overview末段定义各地理时间代理群体；Proportions一节以古非洲人与现今伊朗、印度相关参考群体拟合混合。Methods说明qpAdm比较候选来源模型，而非直接观察移民自称。", "preciseLocator": "Dataset overview final paragraph defining ancestry terminology; Proportions of Persian and Indian ancestry opening paragraphs; Methods qpAdm ancestry modelling", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05754-w", "sourceVersion": "published Nature HTML main article and Methods as retrieved 2026-10-04; DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-05754-w" } ] }, { "id": "HU03-C3", "label": "性别偏向不识别具体社会机制", "text": "资料支持特定样本人群中亚洲相关男性与非洲相关女性贡献的偏向；单凭这个模式不能断定婚姻、奴役、强迫或具体权力关系。", "scope": "文中可估计祖源的中世纪/近世沿海样本及其模型", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "同时期社会史、亲属网络、地位相关考古及更复杂人口模型。", "sources": [ "HU03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU03-P3", "label": "性别偏向不识别具体社会机制：必要前提", "text": "X/常染色体差异可用于该混合模型的性别来源估计；须保留估计误差及人口史假设。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Sex-biased admixture, equations for autosomal and X ancestry and simulation paragraph; Discussion paragraph beginning However, such genetic data cannot reveal", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU03-L3", "label": "性别偏向不识别具体社会机制：边界", "text": "多种社会过程可产生相似遗传格局；原文的社会历史解释需要墓葬、制度与文本材料独立支撑。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Sex-biased admixture, equations for autosomal and X ancestry and simulation paragraph; Discussion paragraph beginning However, such genetic data cannot reveal", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU03-E3", "label": "性别偏向不识别具体社会机制：原文依据", "text": "研究对常染色体与X染色体祖源差异建模，Methods分别写出男女贡献的线性关系，并模拟参数不确定性；Discussion明确遗传数据本身不能揭示产生这些模式的过程。", "preciseLocator": "Methods Sex-biased admixture, equations for autosomal and X ancestry and simulation paragraph; Discussion paragraph beginning However, such genetic data cannot reveal", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05754-w", "sourceVersion": "published Nature HTML main article and Methods as retrieved 2026-10-04; DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-05754-w" } ] }, { "id": "HU03-C4", "label": "时间吻合不证实整篇起源叙事", "text": "混合时间和来源的相容性可提高某类跨海联系叙事的可信度，却不独自证实编年史每个人名、航行、精英谱系或文明起源说。", "scope": "研究对Kilwa Chronicle与古DNA相互印证的有限解释", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "独立文本校勘、可靠港口与贸易考古，以及可与特定事件关联的材料。", "sources": [ "HU03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU03-P4", "label": "时间吻合不证实整篇起源叙事：必要前提", "text": "遗传混合日期、口述传统记忆与文本成书日期是不同对象，不能强行当作同一事件时间。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraphs on the Kilwa Chronicle and competing historical narratives; Discussion opening paragraphs on admixture around AD 1000 and Persian-related ancestry", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU03-L4", "label": "时间吻合不证实整篇起源叙事：边界", "text": "本轮没有独立校勘编年史版本；遗传支持部分历史联系，不等于认可全部叙事或外源文明论。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraphs on the Kilwa Chronicle and competing historical narratives; Discussion opening paragraphs on admixture around AD 1000 and Persian-related ancestry", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU03-E4", "label": "时间吻合不证实整篇起源叙事：原文依据", "text": "Main说明Kilwa Chronicle的传承和后期成文背景；Discussion把约公元1000年左右的非洲—波斯混合与该传统并置，同时讨论此前将外来起源等同文明来源的历史框架问题。", "preciseLocator": "Main paragraphs on the Kilwa Chronicle and competing historical narratives; Discussion opening paragraphs on admixture around AD 1000 and Persian-related ancestry", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05754-w", "sourceVersion": "published Nature HTML main article and Methods as retrieved 2026-10-04; DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-05754-w" } ] }, { "id": "HU03-C5", "label": "现代比较依赖招募与身份定义", "text": "古今样本差异不能自动成为当代斯瓦希里身份的真实性或纯度检验；现代招募标准和社群语境是解释的一部分。", "scope": "该研究两个现代样本集合及报告的参与程序", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "editorial", "what_would_change_status": "更透明招募、社区共同解释与经授权的数据使用，可检验样本差异而不设身份纯度标准。", "sources": [ "HU03-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU03-P5", "label": "现代比较依赖招募与身份定义：必要前提", "text": "需要区分研究中的自我认同、招募分类及遗传模型定义；社群参与程序须按项目具体核查。", "preciseLocator": "Relating medieval to present-day Swahili coast peoples, paragraphs contrasting 89 previously analysed and 93 newly analysed individuals; Methods Inclusion and ethics statement", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU03-L5", "label": "现代比较依赖招募与身份定义：边界", "text": "参与者不是所有社群的代表；作者报告的咨询也不授权本项目重新使用个人基因数据或替人定义身份。", "preciseLocator": "Relating medieval to present-day Swahili coast peoples, paragraphs contrasting 89 previously analysed and 93 newly analysed individuals; Methods Inclusion and ethics statement", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU03-E5", "label": "现代比较依赖招募与身份定义：原文依据", "text": "Relating medieval to present-day一节比较89名既有与93名新增现代参与者，指出招募方式与自我定义差异会改变祖源分布；Methods记录社区参与及反馈，但不是把样本当成所有人的授权。", "preciseLocator": "Relating medieval to present-day Swahili coast peoples, paragraphs contrasting 89 previously analysed and 93 newly analysed individuals; Methods Inclusion and ethics statement", "fulltextUrl": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05754-w", "sourceVersion": "published Nature HTML main article and Methods as retrieved 2026-10-04; DOI 10.1038/s41586-023-05754-w" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "HU03", "coverage_status": "specified_primary_passages_checked", "coverage_label": "指定原文已核", "coverage_note": "正式全文指定正文和方法已读；未独立重做遗传分析或校勘全部口述/编年传统。", "chain_review_status": "scoped_claims_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ "已读正式全文指定正文和方法；未独立校勘口述传统/编年史，也未复算遗传结果。", "针对2025–2026更正、回应与批评的窄检索未找到本轮可核实的替代原始研究；这不是不存在反例或学界已经一致的证明。" ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "HU03-C1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-C4" ], "limitation_ids": [ "HU03-L1", "HU03-L2", "HU03-L3", "HU03-L4", "HU03-L5" ] }, "updates": [] }, { "id": "AR01", "field": "人文与艺术", "title": "扩大阅读范围会改变什么", "known_core": [ "Moretti的论述给扩大文学研究范围提供一种可争论的方法论理由，不是已经实验证明远读普遍优于细读的定律。", "即使采用远读，语言能力、细部形式和具体历史解释仍是检验大尺度猜想的必要工作；读法目标不同也可能留下有理由的分歧。", "TLDM检验的是指定英语小说、三项操作任务与一组早期2025模型，不能直接概括全球文学、复杂非线性叙事或2026最新模型。", "这些分数主要衡量长短上下文输出的一致性，不能凭高分认定文学事实正确，也不能凭低分判决一切文学理解失败。", "本次实验支持按任务检验长上下文与分块策略，不能从一个提示技巧推出通用的长篇阅读修复方案。", "Elkins proposes human-guided emotional-arc analysis as a way to select and interpret narrative passages; the article itself treats model choice, smoothing and subtle multilingual texts as continuing methodological questions." ], "frontier_question": "怎样扩大文学研究范围并使用计算或 LLM 工具，同时保留语言细部、历史处境和解释责任？模型提取的情感、人物和时间结构，在何种验证下才构成有用的文学证据？", "evidence_needed": [ "补充非经典作品、不同语言的版本、翻译史与接受史，并说明保存、出版和选择造成的缺口", "让计算比较与具备语言能力的细读相互检验；为情感、人物与时间等任务建立可审查的人类标注和异议记录，检验模型、提示、分块及翻译的敏感性", "明确读法要回答的是历史传播、形式差异、意义还是审美评价；分别提出相应证据和论证标准", "认真呈现竞争解释及其反例，允许不同目的下有多个有根据的读法，而不强求统一评分" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "档案与翻译偏差", "尺度和分析单位选择", "解释多元", "审美与价值理由" ], "important_limits": [ "作者的方案不能代言全部文学传统；文中的世界体系概括与个案仍需要自己的文本及史料检验。", "这是对作者论证的限定解读，不是已经证明所有读法等价，也不是独立核实他所援引的各国语言个案。", "筛选排除了部分文学形式；长度分档的tokenizer和文本版本也影响可比性；40部小说不是世界文学代表性概率样本。", "同一模型在两种输入下可以稳定地犯同一错误；相似度或地点集合指标不测量审美价值与解释说服力。", "没有人类真值限制效应解释；本轮未复跑，也未把会议发表日期当作被测模型的新版本日期。", "Selected sections only; no model rerun, external case-study reanalysis, universal superiority claim, current-model benchmark, or inference of humanities consensus." ], "epistemic_mode": "人文解释、历史材料与概念论辩；研究目的决定证据的相关性", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "AR01-S1", "title": "Conjectures on World Literature", "url": "https://pdodds.w3.uvm.edu/files/papers/others/2000/moretti2000.pdf", "source_version": "institutionally hosted scan/PDF of New Left Review 1 (January–February 2000), printed pp.54–68", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "opening pp.54–55", "Distant reading pp.56–58", "The Western European novel: rule or exception? p.58 and narrative-voice discussion pp.65–66", "Trees, waves and cultural history 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"conference p.297, Evaluation section, paragraphs defining task-specific metrics and short-context reference outputs; p.299 Limitations", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "AR01-L4", "label": "输出一致性不是人工确认的正确性：边界", "text": "同一模型在两种输入下可以稳定地犯同一错误；相似度或地点集合指标不测量审美价值与解释说服力。", "preciseLocator": "conference p.297, Evaluation section, paragraphs defining task-specific metrics and short-context reference outputs; p.299 Limitations", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "AR01-E4", "label": "输出一致性不是人工确认的正确性：原文依据", "text": "Evaluation不采用人类标注真值，而将模型逐章输出拼合或聚合为参照，与长输入输出比较；不同任务使用语义相似、Jaccard或相对误差并归一化。", "preciseLocator": "conference p.297, Evaluation section, paragraphs defining task-specific metrics and short-context reference outputs; p.299 Limitations", "fulltextUrl": "https://aclanthology.org/2026.latechclfl-1.28.pdf", "sourceVersion": "published SIGHUM LaTeCH-CLfL 2026 proceedings, pp.295–304, DOI 10.18653/v1/2026.latechclfl-1.28; fixed conference PDF" } ] }, { "id": "AR01-C5", "label": "分块效果取决于任务与处理方式", "text": "本次实验支持按任务检验长上下文与分块策略，不能从一个提示技巧推出通用的长篇阅读修复方案。", "scope": "正式版报告的处理方式对比，不覆盖全部长上下文策略", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "measured", "what_would_change_status": "独立复跑、不同提示与文本结构、人工事实核验及最新模型对照。", "sources": [ "AR01-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "AR01-P5", "label": "分块效果取决于任务与处理方式：必要前提", "text": "比较在同一论文限定模型、文本、提示及评分设计内成立，不能跨任务偷换指标。", "preciseLocator": "conference p.298, Table2 and Results paragraphs comparing T2/T3/T4; pp.298–299 Discussion", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "AR01-L5", "label": "分块效果取决于任务与处理方式：边界", "text": "没有人类真值限制效应解释；本轮未复跑，也未把会议发表日期当作被测模型的新版本日期。", "preciseLocator": "conference p.298, Table2 and Results paragraphs comparing T2/T3/T4; pp.298–299 Discussion", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "AR01-E5", "label": "分块效果取决于任务与处理方式：原文依据", "text": "Results及Table2报告较长小说下多项任务的一致性下降；截取窗口对相应窗口任务有帮助，而简单把章节包装成多条消息并未一致改善，叙事时间任务的表现也不同。", "preciseLocator": "conference p.298, Table2 and Results paragraphs comparing T2/T3/T4; pp.298–299 Discussion", "fulltextUrl": "https://aclanthology.org/2026.latechclfl-1.28.pdf", "sourceVersion": "published SIGHUM LaTeCH-CLfL 2026 proceedings, pp.295–304, DOI 10.18653/v1/2026.latechclfl-1.28; fixed conference PDF" } ] }, { "id": "AR01-V05-C1", "label": "Elkins 的人参与情感弧分析", "text": "Elkins proposes human-guided emotional-arc analysis as a way to select and interpret narrative passages; the article itself treats model choice, smoothing and subtle multilingual texts as continuing methodological questions.", "scope": "Elkins 2025, selected pipeline, case, feature-extraction and LLM-limit passages on pp.2–3,5–6,13–14,17–19.", "status": "source_attributed_argument_conditionally_supported", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "可比较的文本版本、语言与模型验证及独立解释评议可改变方法适用性；本项目不由该文推出文学界共识。", "sources": [ "AR01-V05-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "AR01-V05-P1", "label": "Elkins 的人参与情感弧分析：解释前提", "text": "This is a methodological/case-based argument; cited supporting case studies and model outputs are not independently reproduced here.", "preciseLocator": "Publisher PDF printed/PDF pp.2–3,5–6,13–14,17–19; XML sections1,2,5,7", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "AR01-V05-L1", "label": "Elkins 的人参与情感弧分析：边界", "text": "Selected sections only; no model rerun, external case-study reanalysis, universal superiority claim, current-model benchmark, or inference of humanities consensus.", "preciseLocator": "Publisher PDF printed/PDF pp.2–3,5–6,13–14,17–19; XML sections1,2,5,7", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "AR01-V05-E1", "label": "Elkins 的人参与情感弧分析：原文依据", "text": "Introduction pp.2–3 separates sentiment language from plot and describes model comparison/smoothing; pp.13–14 require interpreting extracted crux passages, not replacing criticism. Section7 pp.17–19 presents LLM directions as possibilities and explicitly retains bias, overreliance and subtle-text validation concerns.", "preciseLocator": "Publisher PDF printed/PDF pp.2–3,5–6,13–14,17–19; XML sections1,2,5,7", "fulltextUrl": "https://culturalanalytics.org/article/990/galley/768/download/", "sourceVersion": "Journal of Cultural Analytics10(3),22-page publisher PDF; published10September2025; publisher XML galley767 also read; same title/DOI/authorship" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "AR01", "coverage_status": "v05_material_dispositions", "coverage_label": "本轮2项资料目标；1项仍有缺口", "coverage_note": "本轮涉及2个有界资料目标：1项指定资料已取得并核对，0项部分取得，1项关键材料或解释仍缺。目标处置不表示本题已解决，也不表示全部相关文献已读；科学、历史或规范问题的限制继续保留。", "chain_review_status": "v05_scoped_patch_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ { "item": "Arac 2002 的完整原始批评", "status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "gap": [ "需要 NLR 16 (2002) 35–45页完整原文，或来源身份清楚且连续的授权作者／机构存本。", "片段不是完整论证审阅，也未调查文学界共识或全部艺术领域。" ] }, { "item": "Elkins 的原始文学分析方法论证", "status": "resolved_for_scoped_target", "gap": [ "只读指定部分，没有重跑模型或外部案例分析。", "不能推出普遍优越性、当代模型基准或人文学界共识。" ] } ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "AR01-C1", "AR01-C2", "AR01-C3", "AR01-C4", "AR01-C5", "AR01-V05-C1" ], "limitation_ids": [ "AR01-L1", "AR01-L2", "AR01-L3", "AR01-L4", "AR01-L5", "AR01-V05-L1" ], "v05_target_ids": [ "AR01-G01", "AR01-G02" ] }, "updates": [ { "gap_id": "AR01-G01", "card_id": "AR01", "old_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "new_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "finding": "出版社页面仍仅提供开头，随后为登录/购买入口；PDF路径返回HTML而非PDF。未取得35–45页连续全文，不能把局部文字当作完整论证。作者机构CV再次确认2002年与页码。", "reading_extent": [ "NLR标题、DOI、开头至Moretti假说段及订阅截断；Pittsburgh作者CV书目" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Anglo-Globalism?", "url": "https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii16/articles/jonathan-arac-anglo-globalism", "locator": "开头段落；理论/批评定义；Moretti问题框架；登录截断", "access": "partial_public_HTML", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "NLR16, July–August2002,35–45;10.64590/gfr" }, { "title": "Jonathan Arac CV", "url": "https://www.english.pitt.edu/sites/default/files/jarac_cv.pdf", "locator": "ESSAYS, Anglo-Globalism条目", "access": "indexed_institutional_CV", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null } ], "remaining_gap": "仍缺合法连续全文；本轮未找到新作者/机构公开副本。", "next_action": "先取得授权连续原文，制作论证—例证—反例图并由比较文学研究者复核。另设双语原文与英语转述的对照阅读，检验特定解释损失；这种经验检验只触及具体机制，不裁决Arac的全部人文规范判断。", "conclusion_impact": "no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "先取得授权连续原文，制作论证—例证—反例图并由比较文学研究者复核。另设双语原文与英语转述的对照阅读，检验特定解释损失；这种经验检验只触及具体机制，不裁决Arac的全部人文规范判断。", "new_material": [], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "AR01-S1", "AR01-L1", "AR01-L2", "AR01-Q1" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "Arac 2002原始评论", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" } ] }, { "id": "HU04", "field": "哲学与价值", "title": "何谓公平与值得追求的生活", "known_core": "本卡已核查的限定结果与论证：在Sen给出的规范反例中，总效用最大化可能减少对某些弱势者的资源分配；是否公平需要额外评价理由，不能由最大化运算自行回答。 按Sen的论证，资源分配信息对评价人的实际机会并不总是充分，需要考虑资源向生活能力的转换条件。 Sen提出把可实现的基本活动纳入平等评价，是关于什么值得评价的规范提案；它并未测量出唯一正确的幸福或善好生活。 即使接受能力作为信息维度，如何加权、聚合以及处理其他道德理由仍需独立规范论证，不能从一个指标机械推出完整公平制度。 官方评估提供分辨价值类型及可比条件的框架，支持逐案说明哪些内容能比较；它不授权把所有自然价值压成一个价格，也不宣称一切价值永不可比较。", "frontier_question": "在价值冲突时，该保护什么、由谁决定、怎样正当地比较不同人的利益？", "evidence_needed": [ "清楚陈述规范前提并检验论证一致性与反例", "使用经验研究说明选择的实际后果和分配", "让受影响者参与，检验程序的公平、理由与可接受性" ], "uncertainty_types": [ "规范性分歧", "概念选择", "价值不可通约" ], "important_limits": "这不是关于现实残障群体效用的经验测量，也不是证明所有功利主义版本都已被反驳。 本卡只准确呈现Sen对Rawls的批评，不以此代替Rawls原文全貌或宣布争论已经解决。 举例不等于一份已获全球同意的封闭能力清单；本轮不声称1979文本已完成后续能力理论。 开放权重不等于所有排序同样可信；经验数据可检验后果，却不能替代分配规则的价值前提。 这是政府间评估对概念与文献的综合，不是每种规范结论的独立实验验证；未复核章内所有案例。", "epistemic_mode": "规范与概念研究：不适用统一的实验式已解/未解刻度", "evidence_path_is_editorial_synthesis": true, "sources": [ { "source_node_id": "HU04-S1", "title": "Equality of What?", "url": "https://ophi.org.uk/sites/default/files/Sen-1979_Equality-of-What.pdf", "source_version": "OPHI-hosted Tanner lecture text; delivered Stanford 1979-05-22; printed pp.197–220, 26-page PDF including preliminaries", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "Introduction pp.197–198", "1. Utilitarian Equality pp.198–204", "3. Rawlsian Equality pp.213–216", "4. Basic Capability Equality pp.217–219", "5. Concluding Remarks pp.219–220" ], "not_reviewed": [ "all of section2 Total Utility Equality", "Rawls's complete original works", "later capability literature in full" ], "independence_group": "SEN_1979_EQUALITY_ARGUMENT" }, { "source_node_id": "HU04-S2", "title": "Chapter 2. Conceptualizing the diverse values of nature and their contributions to people", "url": "https://zenodo.org/records/7701874/files/2022%20IPBES_ASSESSMENT%20ON%20VALUES%20%28CHAPTER%202%29.pdf?download=1", "source_version": "IPBES Values Assessment, 2022 typeset Chapter2 PDF deposited in official Zenodo record 7701874; chapter DOI 10.5281/zenodo.6493134", "date": null, "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "reviewed_content": [ "2.2.3.2 Specific values categorized as intrinsic, instrumental and relational values, definition paragraphs pp.61–62", "2.2.3.3 Policy relevance of considering diverse value types and their overlaps pp.65–66", "Figure2.13 and caption p.65" ], "not_reviewed": [ "complete Chapter2 and other chapters", "all underlying systematic-review studies and Annex2.10", "independent replication of case studies" ], "independence_group": "IPBES_VALUES_2022_ASSESSMENT_SHARED_LITERATURE" } ], "frontier_detail": "在效用、资源、能力与多种关系价值冲突时，应保护什么，由谁以何种理由和程序作出选择；哪些新事实会改变后果判断，哪些分歧仍需要规范论证？", "original_field": "哲学／伦理／价值研究", "normative": true, "as_of": "2026-10-04", "short_title": "何谓公平与值得追求的生活", "current_status": "截至2026-10-04，Sen的效用、资源与能力之辨提出可检验的规范理由；IPBES价值分类进一步说明多种价值的关系，但都不能在没有价值前提时唯一决定公平。 领域专家复核待完成。", "limits": "这不是关于现实残障群体效用的经验测量，也不是证明所有功利主义版本都已被反驳。 本卡只准确呈现Sen对Rawls的批评，不以此代替Rawls原文全貌或宣布争论已经解决。 举例不等于一份已获全球同意的封闭能力清单；本轮不声称1979文本已完成后续能力理论。 开放权重不等于所有排序同样可信；经验数据可检验后果，却不能替代分配规则的价值前提。 这是政府间评估对概念与文献的综合，不是每种规范结论的独立实验验证；未复核章内所有案例。", "verified_on": "2026-10-04", "evidence_depth": "primary_passages_checked", "expert_review": "pending", "visual": { "id": "HU04", "title": "何谓公平与值得追求的生活", "domain": "哲学与价值", "as_of": "2026-10-04", "reasoning_modes": [ "normative", "interpretive" ], "known": { "heading": "已有依据", "text": "Sen 的反例和能力提案揭示不同评价理由；经验数据不能独自决定什么最公平。", "kind": "bounded_paraphrase", "node_ids": [ "HU04-C1", "HU04-C2", "HU04-C3", "HU04-C4", "HU04-C5" ], "evidence_ids": [ "HU04-E1", "HU04-E2", "HU04-E3", "HU04-E4", "HU04-E5" ], "source_ids": [ "HU04-S1", "HU04-S2" ] }, "frontier": { "heading": "仍跨不过的边界", "text": "价值冲突时应保护什么，由谁以什么理由和程序作选择？", "kind": "bounded_editorial_synthesis", "node_ids": [ "HU04-Q1" ] }, "evidence_needed": { "heading": "什么会改变判断", "text": "公开价值前提、反例与后果证据，并让受影响者参与。", "kind": "editorial_research_requirement", "based_on_card_field": "evidence_needed", "node_ids": [ "HU04-Q1" ] }, "key_limit": { "text": "这里没有等待实验测出的唯一幸福分数；有分歧也不表示所有理由一样好。", "node_ids": [ "HU04-L1", "HU04-L2", "HU04-L3", "HU04-L4", "HU04-L5" ] }, "visual_metaphor": { "title": "资源、机会与价值理由并排", "role": "schematic_explanation", "not_measured_geometry": true, "alt_text": "Sen 的反例和能力提案揭示不同评价理由；经验数据不能独自决定什么最公平。 价值冲突时应保护什么，由谁以什么理由和程序作选择？", "global_guardrails": [ "示意对象的位置、长度与面积均不代表知识量、真理概率或剩余工作。", "依据与前沿同时可见；不能仅画一个从坏到好的进度条。" ] }, "proposed_research_path": { "label": "可检验的研究路径（本图谱建议）", "notice": "步骤可并行、回退或失败；不预测突破日期，不保证必然解决。", "steps": [ { "id": "HU04-VIS-PATH-1", "step": 1, "title": "说清效用、资源与能力前提", "proposed_artifact": "价值理由卡", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU04-Q1", "HU04-C1", "HU04-C2", "HU04-C3", "HU04-C4", "HU04-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU04-VIS-PATH-2", "step": 2, "title": "比较反例与一致性", "proposed_artifact": "论证检验", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU04-Q1", "HU04-C1", "HU04-C2", "HU04-C3", "HU04-C4", "HU04-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU04-VIS-PATH-3", "step": 3, "title": "研究实际后果和分配", "proposed_artifact": "经验后果表", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU04-Q1", "HU04-C1", "HU04-C2", "HU04-C3", "HU04-C4", "HU04-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false }, { "id": "HU04-VIS-PATH-4", "step": 4, "title": "让受影响者比较理由", "proposed_artifact": "保留可说明的分歧", "status": "proposed_not_executed", "epistemic_role": "editorial_proposal", "context_node_ids": [ "HU04-Q1", "HU04-C1", "HU04-C2", "HU04-C3", "HU04-C4", "HU04-C5" ], "source_endorsement_claimed": false } ], "read_order_only": true, "completion_percent": null }, "provenance": { "canonical_case_id": "HU04", "question_id": "HU04-Q1", "all_claim_ids": [ "HU04-C1", "HU04-C2", "HU04-C3", "HU04-C4", "HU04-C5" ], "all_source_ids": [ "HU04-S1", "HU04-S2" ], "all_limitation_ids": [ "HU04-L1", "HU04-L2", "HU04-L3", "HU04-L4", "HU04-L5" ], "expert_review": "pending", "new_fact_research_performed": false }, "material_gaps": { "heading": "本图谱的资料状态", "distinct_from_frontier": true, "scoped_target_count": 0, "coverage_warning": "未列目标只表示不在这次有限资料补齐清单中，不表示文献齐全。", "targets": [] }, "layout": { "radial_category": "bounded_basis", "fixed_category_slot": true, "radius_encodes": "semantic_role_only", "size_encodes": "nothing_uniform", "domain_angle_encodes": "navigation_only" } }, "claims": [ { "id": "HU04-C1", "label": "边际效用相等不等于处境公平", "text": "在Sen给出的规范反例中，总效用最大化可能减少对某些弱势者的资源分配；是否公平需要额外评价理由，不能由最大化运算自行回答。", "scope": "Sen所设分配问题及其论证", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "更强的规范辩护、反例或替代前提可改变论证评价；新增事实只能检验现实适用。", "sources": [ "HU04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU04-P1", "label": "边际效用相等不等于处境公平：必要前提", "text": "反例暂接受指定效用函数和可比较性，检验的是由这些前提推出的伦理后果。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.198–204, 1. Utilitarian Equality, marginal-utility argument and disadvantage counterexample", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU04-L1", "label": "边际效用相等不等于处境公平：边界", "text": "这不是关于现实残障群体效用的经验测量，也不是证明所有功利主义版本都已被反驳。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.198–204, 1. Utilitarian Equality, marginal-utility argument and disadvantage counterexample", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU04-E1", "label": "边际效用相等不等于处境公平：原文依据", "text": "Sen从固定总量的功利分配例子说明边际效用均等化的条件，并以获得较低总效用和较低边际效用的弱势个体构造反例；他并不把这种假设强加给所有现实残障者。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.198–204, 1. Utilitarian Equality, marginal-utility argument and disadvantage counterexample", "fulltextUrl": "https://ophi.org.uk/sites/default/files/Sen-1979_Equality-of-What.pdf", "sourceVersion": "OPHI-hosted Tanner lecture text; delivered Stanford 1979-05-22; printed pp.197–220, 26-page PDF including preliminaries" } ] }, { "id": "HU04-C2", "label": "相同资源不保证相同实际机会", "text": "按Sen的论证，资源分配信息对评价人的实际机会并不总是充分，需要考虑资源向生活能力的转换条件。", "scope": "1979讲稿的基本物品批评论证", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "对评价对象、转换差异和正当分配原则的更完整论证或反例。", "sources": [ "HU04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU04-P2", "label": "相同资源不保证相同实际机会：必要前提", "text": "评价目的关心人能实际做到什么，而不仅是物品持有；这一本身是需要说明的规范选择。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.213–216, 3. Rawlsian Equality, primary-goods discussion and human-diversity paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU04-L2", "label": "相同资源不保证相同实际机会：边界", "text": "本卡只准确呈现Sen对Rawls的批评，不以此代替Rawls原文全貌或宣布争论已经解决。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.213–216, 3. Rawlsian Equality, primary-goods discussion and human-diversity paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU04-E2", "label": "相同资源不保证相同实际机会：原文依据", "text": "Sen在Rawlsian Equality节讨论基本物品，并以身体状况等差异说明人们把同一资源转化成可实现生活的能力不同；批评对象是只以资源指标评估差异的局限。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.213–216, 3. Rawlsian Equality, primary-goods discussion and human-diversity paragraphs", "fulltextUrl": "https://ophi.org.uk/sites/default/files/Sen-1979_Equality-of-What.pdf", "sourceVersion": "OPHI-hosted Tanner lecture text; delivered Stanford 1979-05-22; printed pp.197–220, 26-page PDF including preliminaries" } ] }, { "id": "HU04-C3", "label": "能力建议拓宽了评价对象", "text": "Sen提出把可实现的基本活动纳入平等评价，是关于什么值得评价的规范提案；它并未测量出唯一正确的幸福或善好生活。", "scope": "该讲稿的基本能力概念与举例", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "对能力清单、优先次序、个人选择与共同生活的公开论证及反例。", "sources": [ "HU04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU04-P3", "label": "能力建议拓宽了评价对象：必要前提", "text": "需要为被选能力的重要性、可行机会与实际实现的关系提供理由，而不能仅凭术语获得正当性。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.217–219, 4. Basic Capability Equality, opening examples and paragraph defining basic capabilities", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU04-L3", "label": "能力建议拓宽了评价对象：边界", "text": "举例不等于一份已获全球同意的封闭能力清单；本轮不声称1979文本已完成后续能力理论。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.217–219, 4. Basic Capability Equality, opening examples and paragraph defining basic capabilities", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU04-E3", "label": "能力建议拓宽了评价对象：原文依据", "text": "Basic Capability Equality以行动、营养、衣着、居所和参与社区等基本活动说明建议，强调满意程度或物品清单可能遗漏重要差异。", "preciseLocator": "printed pp.217–219, 4. Basic Capability Equality, opening examples and paragraph defining basic capabilities", "fulltextUrl": "https://ophi.org.uk/sites/default/files/Sen-1979_Equality-of-What.pdf", "sourceVersion": "OPHI-hosted Tanner lecture text; delivered Stanford 1979-05-22; printed pp.197–220, 26-page PDF including preliminaries" } ] }, { "id": "HU04-C4", "label": "能力也没有消除权重与规则分歧", "text": "即使接受能力作为信息维度，如何加权、聚合以及处理其他道德理由仍需独立规范论证，不能从一个指标机械推出完整公平制度。", "scope": "Sen对自身建议范围和未决选择的明示限制", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "清楚的权重理由、可接受程序、具体制度反例与后果证据共同推进。", "sources": [ "HU04-S1" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU04-P4", "label": "能力也没有消除权重与规则分歧：必要前提", "text": "信息选择、人与人之间的比较、分配规则和制度实现是不同层次，不能相互偷代。", "preciseLocator": "printed p.219, final paragraph of 4. Basic Capability Equality; pp.219–220, 5. Concluding Remarks", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU04-L4", "label": "能力也没有消除权重与规则分歧：边界", "text": "开放权重不等于所有排序同样可信；经验数据可检验后果，却不能替代分配规则的价值前提。", "preciseLocator": "printed p.219, final paragraph of 4. Basic Capability Equality; pp.219–220, 5. Concluding Remarks", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU04-E4", "label": "能力也没有消除权重与规则分歧：原文依据", "text": "p.219讨论能力指标的文化相关权重、部分排序或约定；Concluding Remarks说能力平等只是道德善的部分指引，效用和物品仍可相关，同一能力指标可用于不同聚合规则。", "preciseLocator": "printed p.219, final paragraph of 4. Basic Capability Equality; pp.219–220, 5. Concluding Remarks", "fulltextUrl": "https://ophi.org.uk/sites/default/files/Sen-1979_Equality-of-What.pdf", "sourceVersion": "OPHI-hosted Tanner lecture text; delivered Stanford 1979-05-22; printed pp.197–220, 26-page PDF including preliminaries" } ] }, { "id": "HU04-C5", "label": "价值多元不等于所有价值都不可比较", "text": "官方评估提供分辨价值类型及可比条件的框架，支持逐案说明哪些内容能比较；它不授权把所有自然价值压成一个价格，也不宣称一切价值永不可比较。", "scope": "2022评估第二章所读概念与方法范围", "status": "source_reported_conditional_result", "claim_class": "derived", "what_would_change_status": "具体决策的价值陈述、可比性论证、后果与分配资料，以及受影响者的正当参与。", "sources": [ "HU04-S2" ], "premises": [ { "id": "HU04-P5", "label": "价值多元不等于所有价值都不可比较：必要前提", "text": "选用指标、可替代性假设及参与范围须与具体价值和决策情境一致。", "preciseLocator": "Chapter2, 2.2.3.2 pp.61–62 definition paragraphs; Figure2.13 p.65; 2.2.3.3 pp.65–66, paragraphs on overlap, comparability and resources", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "limitations": [ { "id": "HU04-L5", "label": "价值多元不等于所有价值都不可比较：边界", "text": "这是政府间评估对概念与文献的综合，不是每种规范结论的独立实验验证；未复核章内所有案例。", "preciseLocator": "Chapter2, 2.2.3.2 pp.61–62 definition paragraphs; Figure2.13 p.65; 2.2.3.3 pp.65–66, paragraphs on overlap, comparability and resources", "fulltextUrl": "", "sourceVersion": "" } ], "evidence": [ { "id": "HU04-E5", "label": "价值多元不等于所有价值都不可比较：原文依据", "text": "IPBES区分工具性、内在和关系价值，说明类别常有重叠；2.2.3.3区分可用共同指标直接比较、只能间接协调及须并行考虑的情况，并指出多元估值有复杂性与资源成本。", "preciseLocator": "Chapter2, 2.2.3.2 pp.61–62 definition paragraphs; Figure2.13 p.65; 2.2.3.3 pp.65–66, paragraphs on overlap, comparability and resources", "fulltextUrl": "https://zenodo.org/records/7701874/files/2022%20IPBES_ASSESSMENT%20ON%20VALUES%20%28CHAPTER%202%29.pdf?download=1", "sourceVersion": "IPBES Values Assessment, 2022 typeset Chapter2 PDF deposited in official Zenodo record 7701874; chapter DOI 10.5281/zenodo.6493134" } ] } ], "review": { "card_id": "HU04", "coverage_status": "specified_primary_passages_checked", "coverage_label": "指定原文已核", "coverage_note": "Sen指定页与IPBES第二章限定节已读；不表示整报告、所有哲学传统或规范争议已被穷尽。", "chain_review_status": "scoped_claims_passed", "review_date": "2026-10-04", "source_access_gaps": [ "已实际读Sen指定页及IPBES完整章节中的限定节，未把整部报告或所有哲学传统标成已读。", "Sen全文在网页工具可读，独立shell下载返回403后未绕过；IPBES官方PDF通过公开直链取得。", "较新能力论窄检索没有提供本轮已读的决定性规范反驳；本卡不据此声称共识或哲学问题已解决。" ], "review_limit_notes": [], "claim_ids": [ "HU04-C1", "HU04-C2", "HU04-C3", "HU04-C4", "HU04-C5" ], "limitation_ids": [ "HU04-L1", "HU04-L2", "HU04-L3", "HU04-L4", "HU04-L5" ] }, "updates": [] } ], "walkthroughs": [ { "id": "WALK-P07", "card_id": "P07", "category": "数学", "title": "查过很多，为什么还不能说全部？", "hook": "把有限高度、比例下界和“每一个”放进三个不同的框。", "reading_reframe": { "kind": "misreading_vs_scoped_reading", "before_heading": "容易误读为", "before_text": "已有至少三分之二的进展，所以黎曼猜想只剩三分之一。", "after_heading": "拆开证据后", "after_text": "有限高度认证与渐近比例下界是两类限定结果；猜想要的是每一个非平凡零点都在线上。", "warning": "这是阅读方式对照，不声称科学事实曾按这两句话发生版本变化。", "node_ids": [ "P07-C1", "P07-E1", "P07-C2", "P07-E2", "P07-P2", "P07-L2", "P07-C4", "P07-E4", "P07-P4", "P07-L4", "P07-C5", "P07-L5", "P07-Q1" ] }, "frames": [ { "title": "问题中的“每一个”", "body": "断言针对所有非平凡零点；负偶整数的平凡零点不在这个问题内。", "node_ids": [ "P07-C1", "P07-E1" ], "kind": "formal_statement", "visual_action": "highlight_universal_quantifier", "id": "P07-VIS-FRAME-1", "step": 1, "source_ids": [ "P07-S1" ] }, { "title": "这个窗口内已有认证", "body": "论文报告对有限高度内的零点进行严格认证。高度界约为 3.000×10¹²；它是高度，不是零点个数。", "node_ids": [ "P07-C2", "P07-E2", "P07-P2", "P07-L2" ], "kind": "source_reported_result", "visual_action": "show_finite_window", "id": "P07-VIS-FRAME-2", "step": 2, "source_ids": [ "P07-S2" ] }, { "title": "比例下界是另一个命题", "body": "2026 作者稿报告渐近至少 2/3 的零点既单又在线上；这既不是有限窗口的读数，也不是证明工作的完成率。", "node_ids": [ "P07-C4", "P07-E4", "P07-P4", "P07-L4" ], "kind": "source_reported_claim_pending_expert_review", "visual_action": "show_separate_proportion_statement", "id": "P07-VIS-FRAME-3", "step": 3, "source_ids": [ "P07-S3" ] }, { "title": "边界在量词处", "body": "再多有限核验，也不能自动跨到“所有”；未包含在下界里的零点也没有因此被证明在线外。", "node_ids": [ "P07-C5", "P07-L2", "P07-L4", "P07-L5" ], "kind": "logical_limit", "visual_action": "stop_at_quantifier_boundary", "id": "P07-VIS-FRAME-4", "step": 4, "source_ids": [ "P07-S1", "P07-S2", "P07-S3", "P07-S4" ] }, { "title": "什么能改变结论？", "body": "一条经过审查的一般证明，或一个严格认证的线外反例。两条路线均是待检验入口，不保证成功。", "node_ids": [ "P07-Q1", "P07-L5" ], "kind": "editorial_proposal", "visual_action": "reveal_two_proposed_routes", "id": "P07-VIS-FRAME-5", "step": 5, "source_ids": [ "P07-S1", "P07-S2", "P07-S3", "P07-S4" ] } ], "diagram": { "kind": "finite_vs_universal", "schematic": true, "metaphor_limit": "只画示意窗口和省略号；不生成看似真实的零点散点。比例不画成猜想完成环。", "objects": [ { "type": "statement_box", "label": "所有非平凡零点", "node_ids": [ "P07-C1" ] }, { "type": "bounded_window", "label": "已认证的有限高度", "node_ids": [ "P07-C2" ] }, { "type": "separate_statement_box", "label": "作者稿的渐近比例下界", "node_ids": [ "P07-C4" ] }, { "type": "ellipsis", "label": "未被有限计算穷尽", "node_ids": [ "P07-L2" ] } ], "numerical_facts": [ { "label": "有限认证高度上界", "value": 3000175332800, "unit": "虚部高度", "node_id": "P07-C2" }, { "label": "作者稿渐近比例下界", "value": "至少 2/3", "unit": "指定定义下零点比例", "node_id": "P07-C4", "not_progress_percent": true } ] }, "evidence_chain": { "node_ids": [ "P07-C1", "P07-E1", "P07-C2", "P07-E2", "P07-P2", "P07-L2", "P07-C4", "P07-E4", "P07-P4", "P07-L4", "P07-C5", "P07-L5", "P07-Q1", "P07-E5", "P07-E3", "P07-S1", "P07-S2", "P07-S3", "P07-S4" ], "edge_ids": [ "P07-R01", "P07-R02", "P07-R05", "P07-R06", "P07-R07", "P07-R08", "P07-R09", "P07-R13", "P07-R14", "P07-R15", "P07-R16", "P07-R17", "P07-R18", "P07-R19", "P07-R20", "P07-R21", "P07-R23", "P07-R24", "P07-R25", "P07-R27", "P07-R28" ], "render_from_canonical": true, "preserve_source_target_direction": true, "direction_note": "原图 evidence → source 的 depends_on 是反向出处箭头；不能为视觉顺序改成 source → evidence 的支持边。", "proposed_nodes_are_separate": true }, "all_source_ids": [ "P07-S1", "P07-S2", "P07-S3", "P07-S4" ], "expert_review": "pending" }, { "id": "WALK-P02", "card_id": "P02", "category": "宇宙学", "title": "观测结果，怎样经过模型变成推断？", "hook": "先看距离，再看模型；最后看哪些资料其实来自同一组观测。", "reading_reframe": { "kind": "misreading_vs_scoped_reading", "before_heading": "容易误读为", "before_text": "几组显著性都支持演化，把它们加起来就能宣布暗能量变了。", "after_heading": "拆开证据后", "after_text": "测量经指定参数化和组合得到条件性偏好；资料有重叠，单个高红移分量更靠近 ΛCDM。", "warning": "这是阅读方式对照，不声称科学事实曾按这两句话发生版本变化。", "node_ids": [ "P02-C1", "P02-E1", "P02-P1", "P02-C2", "P02-C3", "P02-E2", "P02-E3", "P02-P2", "P02-C4", "P02-E4", "P02-L3", "P02-L4", "P02-V05-E1", "P02-V05-L1", "P02-Q1", "P02-C5" ] }, "frames": [ { "title": "先有可定位的测量", "body": "在指定分析模型下，z_eff=2.33 的距离比为 4.572±0.046。这是经过拟合的观测估计，仍有模型和仪器前提。", "node_ids": [ "P02-C1", "P02-E1", "P02-P1" ], "kind": "processed_measurement", "visual_action": "show_observation_box", "id": "P02-VIS-FRAME-1", "step": 1, "source_ids": [ "P02-S1" ] }, { "title": "模型给同一资料另一种读法", "body": "比较 CPL 演化模型与 ΛCDM：DESI+CMB 报告 2.7σ；加 DES-Dovekie 后是 3.2σ。模型与数据配方必须一起显示。", "node_ids": [ "P02-C2", "P02-C3", "P02-E2", "P02-E3", "P02-P2" ], "kind": "conditional_model_inference", "visual_action": "overlay_labeled_model_filter", "id": "P02-VIS-FRAME-2", "step": 2, "source_ids": [ "P02-S1", "P02-V05-S1" ] }, { "title": "这些数字不能当独立投票", "body": "两组组合共享 DESI/CMB。新高红移 AP 点本身距 Planck ΛCDM 预测在 0.5σ 内，方向也不能简单说全部一致。", "node_ids": [ "P02-C4", "P02-E4", "P02-L3" ], "kind": "dependence_and_limit", "visual_action": "highlight_shared_data", "id": "P02-VIS-FRAME-3", "step": 3, "source_ids": [ "P02-S1" ] }, { "title": "资料疑点另放一栏", "body": "命名组合的 3.2σ 与结论泛称的 3.1σ 仍无已核实解释。它是本图谱保留的文本／版本疑点，不能猜成四舍五入。", "node_ids": [ "P02-L4", "P02-V05-E1", "P02-V05-L1" ], "kind": "material_issue", "visual_action": "open_material_sidecar", "id": "P02-VIS-FRAME-4", "step": 4, "source_ids": [ "P02-S1", "P02-V05-S1" ] }, { "title": "怎样区分真实演化与误差？", "body": "检查独立观测、校准与更灵活模型，并提出能让候选解释分开的新预测；新证据也可能让信号减弱。", "node_ids": [ "P02-Q1", "P02-C5" ], "kind": "editorial_proposal", "visual_action": "show_prediction_fork", "id": "P02-VIS-FRAME-5", "step": 5, "source_ids": [ "P02-S1" ] } ], "diagram": { "kind": "measurement_model_inference", "schematic": true, "metaphor_limit": "模型画作带名称的解释层；不把宇宙膨胀动画速度当成测得曲线。重叠数据不得画成三次独立实验。", "objects": [ { "type": "observation_box", "label": "距离比 4.572±0.046", "node_ids": [ "P02-C1" ] }, { "type": "assumption_box", "label": "模型＋数据配方", "node_ids": [ "P02-P1", "P02-P2" ] }, { "type": "overlap_group", "label": "共享 DESI／CMB", "node_ids": [ "P02-L3" ] }, { "type": "bounded_conclusion", "label": "有条件的偏好，尚未确证", "node_ids": [ "P02-C5" ] } ], "numerical_facts": [ { "label": "DESI+CMB", "value": 2.7, "unit": "作者报告 σ", "node_id": "P02-C2" }, { "label": "DESI+CMB+DES-Dovekie", "value": 3.2, "unit": "作者报告 σ", "node_id": "P02-C3" } ], "no_significance_sum": true }, "evidence_chain": { "node_ids": [ "P02-C1", "P02-E1", "P02-P1", "P02-C2", "P02-C3", "P02-E2", "P02-E3", "P02-P2", "P02-C4", "P02-E4", "P02-L3", "P02-L4", "P02-V05-E1", "P02-V05-L1", "P02-Q1", "P02-C5", "P02-E5", "P02-E6", "P02-S1", "P02-V05-S1" ], "edge_ids": [ "P02-R01", "P02-R02", "P02-R03", "P02-R04", "P02-R05", "P02-R06", "P02-R07", "P02-R10", "P02-R11", "P02-R12", "P02-R15", "P02-R16", "P02-R17", "P02-R18", "P02-R19", "P02-R21", "P02-R22", "P02-R23", "P02-R24", "P02-R26", "P02-R27", "P02-R28", "P02-R29", "P02-R30", "P02-R31", "P02-R32", "P02-R35", "P02-R36", "P02-R37", "P02-R38", "P02-R39", "P02-R40", "P02-R41", "P02-V05-R01", "P02-V05-R02", "P02-V05-R03" ], "render_from_canonical": true, "preserve_source_target_direction": true, "direction_note": "原图 evidence → source 的 depends_on 是反向出处箭头；不能为视觉顺序改成 source → evidence 的支持边。", "proposed_nodes_are_separate": true }, "all_source_ids": [ "P02-S1", "P02-V05-S1" ], "expert_review": "pending" }, { "id": "WALK-LS04", "card_id": "LS04", "category": "医学", "title": "下降得慢，为什么不等于恢复？", "hook": "同时打开人群条件、量表变化和安全风险三个窗口。", "reading_reframe": { "kind": "misreading_vs_scoped_reading", "before_heading": "容易误读为", "before_text": "药物减慢下降，等于记忆恢复；延长观察越久，长期效果就越确定。", "after_heading": "拆开证据后", "after_text": "指定早期人群中平均恶化较慢，同时有风险；延长期改用外部对照，长期因果解释需要重新审查。", "warning": "这是阅读方式对照，不声称科学事实曾按这两句话发生版本变化。", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C1", "LS04-P1", "LS04-L1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-E2", "LS04-P2", "LS04-L2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-E3", "LS04-L3", "LS04-C4", "LS04-P4", "LS04-L4", "LS04-V05-E1", "LS04-V05-L2", "LS04-Q1", "LS04-L5" ] }, "frames": [ { "title": "先看是谁参加", "body": "原试验纳入指定年龄、早期临床阶段及 PET 条件的人群。不能自动外推全部痴呆、晚期或症状前人群。", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C1", "LS04-P1", "LS04-L1" ], "kind": "trial_scope", "visual_action": "show_inclusion_frame", "id": "LS04-VIS-FRAME-1", "step": 1, "source_ids": [ "LS04-S1" ] }, { "title": "两个端点都在零以下", "body": "76 周 iADRS 组均变化为 −10.19 与 −13.11；用药组下降较慢，组间差 2.92，不是改善到基线之上。", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C2", "LS04-E2", "LS04-P2", "LS04-L2" ], "kind": "reported_adjusted_endpoint", "visual_action": "show_two_negative_bars", "id": "LS04-VIS-FRAME-2", "step": 2, "source_ids": [ "LS04-S1" ] }, { "title": "风险与获益必须并列", "body": "ARIA-E 的安全人群比例为 24.0% 对 2.1%；治疗相关死亡是另一种需要保留归因与分母的安全终点。", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C3", "LS04-E3", "LS04-L3" ], "kind": "benefit_harm_comparison", "visual_action": "reveal_equal_weight_risk_panel", "id": "LS04-VIS-FRAME-3", "step": 3, "source_ids": [ "LS04-S1" ] }, { "title": "延长随访换了比较基础", "body": "原安慰剂组开始治疗后，延长期采用外部 ADNI 对照；后来的汇总轨迹重分析也不能独自证明长期效果为零。", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C4", "LS04-P4", "LS04-L4", "LS04-V05-E1", "LS04-V05-L2" ], "kind": "design_change", "visual_action": "switch_comparison_frame", "id": "LS04-VIS-FRAME-4", "step": 4, "source_ids": [ "LS04-S2", "LS04-V05-S2" ] }, { "title": "下一步要看净收益", "body": "用可解释的长期比较同时跟踪认知、日常功能、治疗负担和风险，再检验更早干预。这里只解释证据，不给个人用药建议。", "node_ids": [ "LS04-Q1", "LS04-L5" ], "kind": "editorial_proposal", "visual_action": "reveal_future_outcome_windows", "id": "LS04-VIS-FRAME-5", "step": 5, "source_ids": [ "LS04-S1", "LS04-S2" ] } ], "diagram": { "kind": "bounded_trial_benefit_harm", "schematic": true, "metaphor_limit": "仅画 76 周组均变化端点或条形，不补画未提供的逐周轨迹；不能以改善色掩盖两组均恶化。", "objects": [ { "type": "trial_scope_frame", "label": "限定早期 AD 人群", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C1" ] }, { "type": "two_negative_endpoint_bars", "label": "76 周平均变化，较低更差", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C2" ] }, { "type": "parallel_risk_panel", "label": "安全风险不能折叠隐藏", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C3" ] }, { "type": "comparison_switch", "label": "随机对照 → 外部对照", "node_ids": [ "LS04-C4", "LS04-L4" ] } ], "numerical_facts": [ { "label": "用药组 iADRS 变化", "value": -10.19, "unit": "量表分", "node_id": "LS04-C2" }, { "label": "安慰剂组 iADRS 变化", "value": -13.11, "unit": "量表分", "node_id": "LS04-C2" }, { "label": "组间差", "value": 2.92, "ci95": [ 1.51, 4.33 ], "unit": "量表分", "node_id": "LS04-C2" }, { "label": "ARIA-E：用药组", "value": 24.0, "numerator": 205, "denominator": 853, "unit": "安全人群百分比", "node_id": "LS04-C3" }, { "label": "ARIA-E：安慰剂组", "value": 2.1, "numerator": 18, "denominator": 874, "unit": "安全人群百分比", "node_id": "LS04-C3" } ], "not_individual_effect": true, "no_personal_medical_advice": true }, "evidence_chain": { "node_ids": [ "LS04-C1", "LS04-P1", "LS04-L1", "LS04-C2", "LS04-E2", "LS04-P2", "LS04-L2", "LS04-C3", "LS04-E3", "LS04-L3", "LS04-C4", "LS04-P4", "LS04-L4", "LS04-V05-E1", "LS04-V05-L2", "LS04-Q1", "LS04-L5", "LS04-E1", "LS04-E4", "LS04-E5", "LS04-S1", "LS04-S2", "LS04-V05-S2" ], "edge_ids": [ "LS04-R01", "LS04-R02", "LS04-R03", "LS04-R04", "LS04-R05", "LS04-R06", "LS04-R07", "LS04-R08", "LS04-R09", "LS04-R10", "LS04-R11", "LS04-R12", "LS04-R14", "LS04-R15", "LS04-R16", "LS04-R17", "LS04-R18", "LS04-R19", "LS04-R20", "LS04-R21", "LS04-R22", "LS04-V05-R3", "LS04-V05-R8" ], "render_from_canonical": true, "preserve_source_target_direction": true, "direction_note": "原图 evidence → source 的 depends_on 是反向出处箭头；不能为视觉顺序改成 source → evidence 的支持边。", "proposed_nodes_are_separate": true }, "all_source_ids": [ "LS04-S1", "LS04-S2", "LS04-V05-S2" ], "expert_review": "pending" }, { "id": "WALK-P15", "card_id": "P15", "category": "工程", "title": "把靶放进电站，分母变了什么？", "hook": "从小靶框拉远到全站框，显示还没有被靶增益计算进去的系统。", "reading_reframe": { "kind": "misreading_vs_scoped_reading", "before_heading": "容易误读为", "before_text": "靶增益超过 1，说明电站已经发出了净电。", "after_heading": "拆开证据后", "after_text": "8.6 MJ 除以 2.08 MJ 是靶层面的能量比；整站净电还要计入驱动、低温、燃料、维护与发电损失。", "warning": "这是阅读方式对照，不声称科学事实曾按这两句话发生版本变化。", "node_ids": [ "P15-C1", "P15-E1", "P15-P1", "P15-L1", "P15-P5", "P15-C5", "P15-C2", "P15-C3", "P15-C4", "P15-P2", "P15-P3", "P15-P4", "P15-L2", "P15-L3", "P15-L4", "P15-L5", "P15-Q1" ] }, "frames": [ { "title": "小框：一次入靶与出靶", "body": "机构年报记录一次实验中入靶激光 2.08 MJ、聚变输出 8.6 MJ，靶增益 4.13。", "node_ids": [ "P15-C1", "P15-E1", "P15-P1" ], "kind": "reported_single_experiment", "visual_action": "show_target_frame", "id": "P15-VIS-FRAME-1", "step": 1, "source_ids": [ "P15-S1" ] }, { "title": "拉远：电站有更大的账本", "body": "靶增益没有把全站耗电作为分母。要问净电，必须把驱动、低温、燃料处理与发电损失放入边界。", "node_ids": [ "P15-L1", "P15-P5", "P15-C5" ], "kind": "boundary_change", "visual_action": "zoom_out_to_plant_frame", "id": "P15-VIS-FRAME-2", "step": 2, "source_ids": [ "P15-S1", "P15-S2" ] }, { "title": "缺口不只是一根电线", "body": "所列 DT 路线还需燃料自持、兼顾供氚与取热的包层，以及真实辐照工况下的材料资格。", "node_ids": [ "P15-C2", "P15-C3", "P15-C4", "P15-P2", "P15-P3", "P15-P4" ], "kind": "engineering_requirements", "visual_action": "show_three_parallel_requirements", "id": "P15-VIS-FRAME-3", "step": 3, "source_ids": [ "P15-S2" ] }, { "title": "部件成功不能替代集成", "body": "非核回路、部件演示与官方路线图，不单独证明完整电站建成，也不能给出确定商用日期。", "node_ids": [ "P15-L2", "P15-L3", "P15-L4", "P15-L5" ], "kind": "inference_limit", "visual_action": "mark_integration_boundary", "id": "P15-VIS-FRAME-4", "step": 4, "source_ids": [ "P15-S2", "P15-S1" ] }, { "title": "整站怎么验收？", "body": "持续记录总输出与总耗电、燃料收支、停机换件和成本，才可能判断指定路线的净电与可维护性。", "node_ids": [ "P15-Q1", "P15-P5" ], "kind": "editorial_proposal", "visual_action": "open_plant_ledger", "id": "P15-VIS-FRAME-5", "step": 5, "source_ids": [ "P15-S1", "P15-S2" ] } ], "diagram": { "kind": "nested_system_boundary", "schematic": true, "metaphor_limit": "用等宽连接线与未知账目标签；没有全站数值时不画按宽度分配的桑基流、不捏造耗电。", "objects": [ { "type": "inner_boundary", "label": "靶：入射激光 → 聚变输出", "node_ids": [ "P15-C1" ] }, { "type": "outer_boundary", "label": "整站：所有电输入与电输出", "node_ids": [ "P15-P5" ] }, { "type": "unmeasured_ledger_items", "label": "本证据链没有完整整站账目", "node_ids": [ "P15-C5" ] }, { "type": "parallel_requirements", "label": "燃料／包层／材料", "node_ids": [ "P15-C2", "P15-C3", "P15-C4" ] } ], "numerical_facts": [ { "label": "入靶激光能", "value": 2.08, "unit": "MJ", "node_id": "P15-C1" }, { "label": "聚变能量输出", "value": 8.6, "unit": "MJ", "node_id": "P15-C1" }, { "label": "靶增益", "value": 4.13, "unit": "能量比", "node_id": "P15-C1" } ], "invented_plant_efficiency_forbidden": true }, "evidence_chain": { "node_ids": [ "P15-C1", "P15-E1", "P15-P1", "P15-L1", "P15-P5", "P15-C5", "P15-C2", "P15-C3", "P15-C4", "P15-P2", "P15-P3", "P15-P4", "P15-L2", "P15-L3", "P15-L4", "P15-L5", "P15-Q1", "P15-E5", "P15-E2", "P15-E3", "P15-E4", "P15-S1", "P15-S2" ], "edge_ids": [ "P15-R01", "P15-R02", "P15-R03", "P15-R04", "P15-R05", "P15-R06", "P15-R07", "P15-R08", "P15-R09", "P15-R10", "P15-R11", "P15-R12", "P15-R13", "P15-R14", "P15-R15", "P15-R16", "P15-R17", "P15-R18", "P15-R19", "P15-R20", "P15-R21", "P15-R22", "P15-R23", "P15-R24", "P15-R25", "P15-R26" ], "render_from_canonical": true, "preserve_source_target_direction": true, "direction_note": "原图 evidence → source 的 depends_on 是反向出处箭头；不能为视觉顺序改成 source → evidence 的支持边。", "proposed_nodes_are_separate": true }, "all_source_ids": [ "P15-S1", "P15-S2" ], "expert_review": "pending" }, { "id": "WALK-ED01", "card_id": "ED01", "category": "社会科学／教育", "title": "工具开启时会做，关闭后学会了吗？", "hook": "用两个场景开关区分表现、独立学习和还没有测到的迁移。", "reading_reframe": { "kind": "misreading_vs_scoped_reading", "before_heading": "容易误读为", "before_text": "AI 帮助练习，就已经证明长期学得更多；一组不显著就等于完全无害。", "after_heading": "拆开证据后", "after_text": "当场辅助成绩、随后无辅助考试和数周后新题迁移是不同终点。该研究对最后一项没有直接答案。", "warning": "这是阅读方式对照，不声称科学事实曾按这两句话发生版本变化。", "node_ids": [ "ED01-C01", "ED01-P01", "ED01-L01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-V02", "ED01-P02", "ED01-L02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-V03", "ED01-V04", "ED01-L03", "ED01-L04", "ED01-V05-C1", "ED01-V05-E1", "ED01-V05-P1", "ED01-V05-L1", "ED01-Q01", "ED01-C06", "ED01-L06" ] }, "frames": [ { "title": "课堂盒子有时间边界", "body": "一所高中、四次数学复习，练习后同场次无辅助考试。它不是数周后的远迁移测量。", "node_ids": [ "ED01-C01", "ED01-P01", "ED01-L01" ], "kind": "study_scope", "visual_action": "show_session_timeline", "id": "ED01-VIS-FRAME-1", "step": 1, "source_ids": [ "ED01-S01" ] }, { "title": "工具开启：当场表现", "body": "相对对照，练习阶段 Base 与 Tutor 的调整估计分别为 +0.137、+0.361；这是辅助条件下的组级结果。", "node_ids": [ "ED01-C02", "ED01-V02", "ED01-P02", "ED01-L02" ], "kind": "reported_adjusted_estimates", "visual_action": "toggle_tool_on", "id": "ED01-VIS-FRAME-2", "step": 2, "source_ids": [ "ED01-S01" ] }, { "title": "工具关闭：独立考试", "body": "随后无辅助考试，Base 为 −0.054；Tutor 为 −0.004，后者与对照不显著。不能把不显著解释为等效。", "node_ids": [ "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-V03", "ED01-V04", "ED01-L03", "ED01-L04" ], "kind": "reported_adjusted_estimates", "visual_action": "toggle_tool_off", "id": "ED01-VIS-FRAME-3", "step": 3, "source_ids": [ "ED01-S01", "ED01-V05-S1" ] }, { "title": "补充比较放在单独抽屉", "body": "SI 的 Tutor−Base 直接组间差为 0.028，来自两两 t 检验；它不是主表的班级聚类回归，也不是 28% 提升。", "node_ids": [ "ED01-V05-C1", "ED01-V05-E1", "ED01-V05-P1", "ED01-V05-L1" ], "kind": "distinct_analysis", "visual_action": "open_separate_analysis_drawer", "id": "ED01-VIS-FRAME-4", "step": 4, "source_ids": [ "ED01-V05-S1" ] }, { "title": "把问号移到数周以后", "body": "多校、延迟、无辅助的新题测试，连同教师投入和差异化效果，才有机会回答是否形成可迁移能力。", "node_ids": [ "ED01-Q01", "ED01-C06", "ED01-L06" ], "kind": "editorial_proposal", "visual_action": "show_unmeasured_delayed_window", "id": "ED01-VIS-FRAME-5", "step": 5, "source_ids": [ "ED01-S01" ] } ], "diagram": { "kind": "tool_on_off_delayed", "schematic": true, "metaphor_limit": "开关改变测量场景，不能表现同一个学生的真实轨迹；所有数值是组级估计，非个体成绩。", "objects": [ { "type": "session_frame", "label": "一所高中／四场复习", "node_ids": [ "ED01-C01" ] }, { "type": "tool_on_panel", "label": "当场练习", "node_ids": [ "ED01-C02" ] }, { "type": "tool_off_panel", "label": "同场次无辅助考试", "node_ids": [ "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04" ] }, { "type": "dashed_future_panel", "label": "数周后新题迁移：此研究未直接回答", "node_ids": [ "ED01-Q01" ] }, { "type": "separate_analysis_drawer", "label": "SI 两两 t 检验", "node_ids": [ "ED01-V05-C1" ] } ], "numerical_facts": [ { "label": "练习：Base 对照差", "value": 0.137, "unit": "主回归调整系数", "node_id": "ED01-C02" }, { "label": "练习：Tutor 对照差", "value": 0.361, "unit": "主回归调整系数", "node_id": "ED01-C02" }, { "label": "无辅助考试：Base 对照差", "value": -0.054, "se": 0.022, "unit": "主回归调整系数", "node_id": "ED01-C03" }, { "label": "无辅助考试：Tutor 对照差", "value": -0.004, "se": 0.013, "unit": "主回归调整系数", "node_id": "ED01-C04" }, { "label": "Tutor−Base", "value": 0.028, "ci95": [ 0.005, 0.052 ], "p": 0.019, "unit": "SI 两两 t 检验归一化成绩差", "node_id": "ED01-V05-C1", "separate_panel_required": true } ], "do_not_label_percent": true }, "evidence_chain": { "node_ids": [ "ED01-C01", "ED01-P01", "ED01-L01", "ED01-C02", "ED01-V02", "ED01-P02", "ED01-L02", "ED01-C03", "ED01-C04", "ED01-V03", "ED01-V04", "ED01-L03", "ED01-L04", "ED01-V05-C1", "ED01-V05-E1", "ED01-V05-P1", "ED01-V05-L1", "ED01-Q01", "ED01-C06", "ED01-L06", "ED01-V01", "ED01-V06", "ED01-S01", "ED01-V05-S1" ], "edge_ids": [ "ED01-R01", "ED01-R02", "ED01-R03", "ED01-R04", "ED01-R05", "ED01-R06", "ED01-R07", "ED01-R08", "ED01-R09", "ED01-R10", "ED01-R12", "ED01-R13", "ED01-R14", "ED01-R16", "ED01-R21", "ED01-R22", "ED01-R24", "ED01-R27", "ED01-R28", "ED01-R29", "ED01-R30", "ED01-R31", "ED01-R32", "ED01-V05-R01", "ED01-V05-R02", "ED01-V05-R03", "ED01-V05-R04", "ED01-V05-R05", "ED01-V05-R06" ], "render_from_canonical": true, "preserve_source_target_direction": true, "direction_note": "原图 evidence → source 的 depends_on 是反向出处箭头；不能为视觉顺序改成 source → evidence 的支持边。", "proposed_nodes_are_separate": true }, "all_source_ids": [ "ED01-S01", "ED01-V05-S1" ], "expert_review": "pending" }, { "id": "WALK-HU03", "card_id": "HU03", "category": "人文学／历史", "title": "基因能支持一段历史，能替历史说完吗？", "hook": "把样本、祖源、社会机制和叙事放在四张不同的透明页上。", "reading_reframe": { "kind": "misreading_vs_scoped_reading", "before_heading": "容易误读为", "before_text": "找到某类祖源，就证明古人属于某民族，也证实了整篇文明起源叙事。", "after_heading": "拆开证据后", "after_text": "特定样本约束了祖源联系；社会过程、文本事件和文化意义仍需要各自的材料与解释理由。", "warning": "这是阅读方式对照，不声称科学事实曾按这两句话发生版本变化。", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C1", "HU03-E1", "HU03-P1", "HU03-L1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-E2", "HU03-P2", "HU03-L2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-E3", "HU03-P3", "HU03-L3", "HU03-C4", "HU03-E4", "HU03-P4", "HU03-L4", "HU03-Q1", "HU03-C5", "HU03-L5" ] }, "frames": [ { "title": "先看留下来的是谁", "body": "80 个通过真实性检验的古个体，不代表整个社会；墓地、地区与年代的选择决定可作何种推断。", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C1", "HU03-E1", "HU03-P1", "HU03-L1" ], "kind": "sample_scope", "visual_action": "show_labeled_sample_frame", "id": "HU03-VIS-FRAME-1", "step": 1, "source_ids": [ "HU03-S1" ] }, { "title": "祖源是相对于参考样本", "body": "非洲、波斯或印度相关祖源是模型中的比较关系，不能直接读出古人的自我认同、语言或文化创造。", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C2", "HU03-E2", "HU03-P2", "HU03-L2" ], "kind": "conditional_historical_inference", "visual_action": "separate_ancestry_from_identity", "id": "HU03-VIS-FRAME-2", "step": 2, "source_ids": [ "HU03-S1" ] }, { "title": "同一格局容许多种社会过程", "body": "性别偏向的混合模式并不能单独判定婚姻、强迫或权力关系；这些问题要用独立的制度与历史材料。", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C3", "HU03-E3", "HU03-P3", "HU03-L3" ], "kind": "underdetermined_explanation", "visual_action": "show_unranked_alternative_routes", "id": "HU03-VIS-FRAME-3", "step": 3, "source_ids": [ "HU03-S1" ] }, { "title": "时间吻合只支持部分联系", "body": "混合时间与文本传统相容，可增加某类联系的可信度，却不会自动证实每个人名、航行或精英谱系。", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C4", "HU03-E4", "HU03-P4", "HU03-L4" ], "kind": "limited_cross_evidence_support", "visual_action": "align_layers_without_merging", "id": "HU03-VIS-FRAME-4", "step": 4, "source_ids": [ "HU03-S1" ] }, { "title": "怎样让新材料改变叙事？", "body": "增加不同地区与社会群体的材料，与文本、考古和社区知识交叉检验。保留谁能授权、谁来解释与哪些主张可修订。", "node_ids": [ "HU03-Q1", "HU03-C5", "HU03-L5" ], "kind": "editorial_proposal", "visual_action": "open_plural_evidence_paths", "id": "HU03-VIS-FRAME-5", "step": 5, "source_ids": [ "HU03-S1" ] } ], "diagram": { "kind": "historical_evidence_layers", "schematic": true, "metaphor_limit": "不画民族纯度饼图，不给个体分配语言或身份，不用虚构迁徙箭头表示已确定路线。材料不是越接近实验就越高级。", "objects": [ { "type": "layer", "label": "墓葬样本与保存条件", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C1" ] }, { "type": "layer", "label": "模型中的祖源关系", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C2" ] }, { "type": "layer", "label": "待解释的社会过程", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C3" ] }, { "type": "layer", "label": "文本、考古与社区知识", "node_ids": [ "HU03-Q1" ] }, { "type": "boundary_label", "label": "不据基因判定文化或身份真伪", "node_ids": [ "HU03-C5", "HU03-L5" ] } ], "numerical_facts": [ { "label": "通过真实性检验的古个体", "value": 80, "unit": "此研究样本个体", "node_id": "HU03-C1", "not_population_total": true } ], "no_ethnic_assignment": true }, "evidence_chain": { "node_ids": [ "HU03-C1", "HU03-E1", "HU03-P1", "HU03-L1", "HU03-C2", "HU03-E2", "HU03-P2", "HU03-L2", "HU03-C3", "HU03-E3", "HU03-P3", "HU03-L3", "HU03-C4", "HU03-E4", "HU03-P4", "HU03-L4", "HU03-Q1", "HU03-C5", "HU03-L5", "HU03-E5", "HU03-S1" ], "edge_ids": [ "HU03-R01", "HU03-R02", "HU03-R03", "HU03-R04", "HU03-R05", "HU03-R06", "HU03-R07", "HU03-R08", "HU03-R09", "HU03-R10", "HU03-R11", "HU03-R12", "HU03-R13", "HU03-R14", "HU03-R15", "HU03-R16", "HU03-R17", "HU03-R18", "HU03-R20", "HU03-R21", "HU03-R22", "HU03-R23", "HU03-R24", "HU03-R25" ], "render_from_canonical": true, "preserve_source_target_direction": true, "direction_note": "原图 evidence → source 的 depends_on 是反向出处箭头；不能为视觉顺序改成 source → evidence 的支持边。", "proposed_nodes_are_separate": true }, "all_source_ids": [ "HU03-S1" ], "expert_review": "pending" } ], "updates": [ { "gap_id": "P12-G01", "old_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "new_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14", "finding": "正式主文仍未取得。当前Nature公开摘要与Extended Data Fig.10仍区分96 K起始转变与未达零电阻；机构命中的PDF明确是Accelerated Article Preview，不能替代正式版。", "reading_extent": [ "Nature摘要、订阅预览标记、Extended Data Fig.10图注；机构PDF版本封面检索记录" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Nature正式文章公开页面", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09954-4", "locator": "Abstract；Extended Data Fig.10 g–i，HTML约524–527行", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14", "short_quote": "zero resistivity has not yet been achieved" }, { "title": "作者机构Accelerated Article Preview", "url": "https://sharps.ac.cn/en/uploads/soft/20251204/2-251204105024242.pdf", "locator": "PDF封面：Accelerated Article Preview，2025-12-02", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" } ], "remaining_gap": "缺正式主文与接受稿逐段比较；Crossmark本轮直开错误，不能把旧检查升级为新无更正证明。", "next_action": "取得正式版后，按样品编号/成分/压力介质建表，逐项对齐96K onset、零电阻与磁性样品；对相同成分和压力区间独立测量电阻与磁化，预先规定零电阻噪声阈值和背景扣除方案。", "actual_access_level": "正式摘要/扩展图图注可读；主文订阅限制；已知机构稿仅接受预览", "baseline_after": "New searches/identity checks did not recover final main. Public final abstract/ED10 remain compatible with accepted onset/no-zero scope. Rereading accepted Methods for the conflict pass is not a new main-text recovery or a final-to-accepted comparison.", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change", "newer_version_or_correction": "本轮未取得改变该基线的新版本或更正；不等于不存在。", "title": "镍酸盐正式发表版" }, { "gap_id": "P12-G02", "old_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "new_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14", "finding": "错配持续，且本轮PDF字节与v0.5一致：3031567 bytes、17页，SHA256 dd327490daf2b676c3f16a1505cf8f162aca51c9481e2a4a46afb8b546c4f144。元数据仍为2026-04-21 v3、96K/已更新Nature终稿；PDF仍旧题与91K摘要。该PDF继续排除出96K证据链。", "reading_extent": [ "arXiv v3标题、摘要、注释、版本日期；下载PDF第1页及全文字节哈希" ], "sources": [ { "title": "arXiv v3元数据", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2501.14584v3", "locator": "标题、Comments、Submission history [v3] 2026-04-21", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" }, { "title": "arXiv v3实际PDF", "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2501.14584v3", "locator": "PDF p.1标题、摘要；17页；SHA256已记录", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14", "short_quote": "superconductivity over 90 K under high pressure" } ], "remaining_gap": "未获题目/内容匹配的96K v3全文，也未获仓储或作者关于错配原因的解释。不能据此推断撤稿、造假或结果被反驳。", "next_action": "用官方新版本或勘误建立“元数据ID—PDF哈希—标题—关键表/图”的一致性测试；匹配后才比较91K与96K对应样品、压力和onset算法，检验升温数值是否来自不同样品而非同样品性能变化。", "actual_access_level": "元数据与实际旧PDF均可读；匹配的v3内容仍缺", "baseline_after": "Official arXiv and export.arxiv PDF routes now both return identical17-page bytes (SHA256 dd327490daf2b676c3f16a1505cf8f162aca51c9481e2a4a46afb8b546c4f144) with older title and91K abstract, while v3 metadata dates2026-04-21 and describes96K/final Nature update. v2 is a distinct larger file, not a solution. HTMLv3 is404. Exact cause remains unknown; exclude this PDF from96K support.", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change", "newer_version_or_correction": "本轮未取得改变该基线的新版本或更正；不等于不存在。", "title": "镍酸盐预印本版本对应" }, { "gap_id": "P02-G01", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14", "finding": "仍为v3（2026-08-04）；Table 4命名组合DESI+CMB+DES-Dovekie列Δχ²MAP=-12.9、3.2σ，VII结论仍写泛称DESI+CMB+SNe的3.1σ。未见可核对的官方澄清，不能猜四舍五入。", "reading_extent": [ "最新abs版本历史；v3 Table4、VII结论、VIII数据可用性；DESI官方数据发布总览" ], "sources": [ { "title": "DESI DR2 IV版本记录", "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2607.27410", "locator": "Submission history最新v3 2026-08-04", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" }, { "title": "DESI DR2 IV全文", "url": "https://arxiv.org/html/2607.27410v3", "locator": "Table4行DESI+CMB+DES-Dovekie；VII结论约683行；VIII", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14", "short_quote": "DESI+CMB+DES-Dovekie" }, { "title": "DESI官方数据发布总览", "url": "https://data.desi.lbl.gov/doc/releases/", "locator": "Spectroscopic Data Releases；Data Supporting Published Papers", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" } ], "remaining_gap": "未独立重跑同一Lyα FS+CMB+DES-Dovekie联合似然；发布总览仍列DR1为最新，所列DR2链对应2025 BAO II，不能当成2026 FS IV匹配链。", "next_action": "锁定同一数据组合/先验/似然代码提交和极大后验结果，复算Δχ²与两自由度显著性映射，并与作者3.1/3.2两个文本定位逐项比对；如只有旧BAO链则停止数值合并。", "actual_access_level": "官方HTML全文可读；本轮未取得对应新联合链", "baseline_after": "Read the named-combination context and new companion passages; visually checked Figs10/16. The v3 abstract, Fig10, Eq32 paragraph and Table4 agree on3.2σ for DESI BAO+Lyα FS+CMB+DES-Dovekie. Conclusion still says3.1σ for generic SNe. AppendixC tests CMB choices without Lyα FS; its0.1–0.2σ shifts cannot by themselves resolve that inconsistency. Companion DR2II uses older SNe/CMB combinations, so its3.1σ DESI+CMB is not the disputed joint-SNe number. Cause remains unestablished.", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change", "newer_version_or_correction": "本轮未取得改变该基线的新版本或更正；不等于不存在。", "title": "暗能量联合显著性表述" }, { "gap_id": "P14-G01", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14", "finding": "主文仍缺。7月29日更正与当前SI维持PALA迁移数0.71；更正说明曾将20mV的另一PL控制曲线误用于PALA。当前SI Fig.11e说明10mV测试，Table3为0.71。属于已知更正复核，不是新增性能验证。", "reading_extent": [ "原文公开摘要/更正链接；更正实质两段；SI PDF pp.24–26图11图注和表3" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Nature原文公开页", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09675-8", "locator": "Change history 2026-07-29；主文订阅预览", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" }, { "title": "Author Correction", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-10945-2", "locator": "正文第1–2段，2026-07-29", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14", "short_quote": "the transference number originally read “0.57”" }, { "title": "更正后SI", "url": "https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41586-025-09675-8/MediaObjects/41586_2025_9675_MOESM1_ESM.pdf", "locator": "PDF pp.24–26：Supplementary Fig.11/Table3，PALA=0.71", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" } ], "remaining_gap": "未获得完整主文；未由原始极化电流与前后EIS复算迁移数；循环与器件性能未全面复审。", "next_action": "用PALA与PL各自样品的I0/Iss/R0/Rss及施加电压，按同一公式独立复算迁移数并追踪原始曲线身份；再在相同电流密度、面容量和温度条件下做盲法重复，分离修正表值与长期循环主张。", "actual_access_level": "公开更正正文和109页SI可下载；主文不可读", "baseline_after": "Newly retrieved current publisher SI confirms corrected PALA transference number 0.71 in Supplementary Table3. Supplementary Fig.11e caption specifies a 10mV polarization test; Fig.11f is the transference-number panel. This supports implementation of the already-known correction, not independent validation of all battery performance. Main text remains unavailable.", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change", "newer_version_or_correction": "本轮未取得改变该基线的新版本或更正；不等于不存在。", "title": "韧性界面电池原文" }, { "gap_id": "P16-G02", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14", "finding": "主文仍缺，但新增读取并目视检查了SI Fig.30：封装叠层器件在空气、65°C、模拟一太阳MPP测试，约1150小时附近归一化PCE目视约0.85。摘要99.8%/1200h不能未经样品和工况匹配直接写成该叠层器件的保持率。SI Fig.27是18个叠层电池统计，不能当作跨批次工业良率。", "reading_extent": [ "公开摘要；SI pp.3–4方法，p.18 Fig.25认证图注，p.19 Fig.27统计图注；p.21 Fig.30全图及图注已目视" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Nature Sustainability公开页", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-026-01916-6", "locator": "Abstract；预览限制", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" }, { "title": "制造论文SI", "url": "https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41893-026-01916-6/MediaObjects/41893_2026_1916_MOESM1_ESM.pdf", "locator": "PDF p.19 Supplementary Fig.27；p.21 Supplementary Fig.30", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14", "short_quote": "simulated one-sun illumination in air at 65°C" } ], "remaining_gap": "正式主文及样品编号/批次/有效面积/封装/温度/MPP原始序列仍未匹配；0.85–0.86仅图像估计，不是原始数据精确值，不据此称摘要矛盾。", "next_action": "给单结小电池、模块、叠层各建独立验收行：面积、批数、n、认证口径、稳定性工况；取得Fig.4和Fig.30源数据后匹配样品，复算T95/T90并检验批间良率及户外外推条件。", "actual_access_level": "摘要与25页SI可读，正式主文仍受限", "baseline_after": "Final publisher supplement recovered and title/DOI matched; scoped inspection includes SI methods pp.3–4 and certification caption p.18. This is not retrieval of the requested main manuscript. No main-text manufacturing or longevity assertion is promoted.", "frontier_impact": "refines_scope_no_frontier_change", "newer_version_or_correction": "本轮未取得改变该基线的新版本或更正；不等于不存在。", "title": "制造研究正文与器件稳定性" }, { "gap_id": "P16-G01", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14", "finding": "新取得并核读Oxford ORA合法接受稿：29页，20,649,080 bytes，SHA256 96c1b4f18f109df2bd9bf10aa660085046b2f5d312a96a0c768903d28c061234。正文主张仍为指定条件下1000h保持率。重要新增限定：Methods规定−15V黑暗老化每100h后，J–V测量前进行12h LED光稳定；遮阴测试每100h移除黑纸再测J–V。Fig.4d/g结果不能表述为整个1000h无中断、连续负载下的实时MPP输出。Fig.4f另有连续一太阳MPP试验，不与d/g混同。", "reading_extent": [ "AAM PDF p.1标题/作者；p.2摘要；pp.11–14 Photovoltaic Performance/Conclusions（行293–365）；pp.17–20器件串联、Characterizations、稳定性Methods、Statistics（行424–514）；pp.22–23 Fig.4图注（行587–610）", "AAM PDF p.19 Methods及p.23 Fig.4图注已渲染目视；未全读29页其余机理、全部参考文献和所有图像", "出版社更新后54页SI：pp.13–14 Note10全文行282–306；Note10是通用ADC/DAC说明，不是实际硬件审计" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Nature Energy公开页", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-026-02067-w", "locator": "Change history 2026-06-25/2026-08-12", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" }, { "title": "Oxford ORA合法接受稿记录", "url": "https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid%3A3f666252-e7b7-401e-b08f-ba00e0cc8d4e", "locator": "Files、Accepted manuscript、CC BY、Deposit 2026-07-29", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" }, { "title": "Oxford接受稿文件", "url": "https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:3f666252-e7b7-401e-b08f-ba00e0cc8d4e/files/sxp68kj913", "locator": "AAM PDF pp.11–14 Results/Conclusions；p.19 lines492–501稳定性方法；pp.22–23 Fig.4 captions", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14", "short_quote": "12-hours light stabilization for every 100-hours", "source_version": "Accepted manuscript, ORA deposit 2026-07-29" }, { "title": "出版社SI", "url": "https://media.springernature.com/original/springer-static/esm/art%3A10.1038%2Fs41560-026-02067-w/MediaObjects/41560_2026_2067_MOESM1_ESM.pdf", "locator": "Note10 pp.13–14 lines282–306", "accessed_on": "2026-10-14" } ], "remaining_gap": "“合法匹配主文/接受稿不可读”子缺口已补；正式VoR与AAM的逐项版本比较仍未完成，故原目标整体partial保持。AAM在2026-07-29存入，早于8月12日Note10更新，必须并用新版出版社SI。未验证6月25日Fig.1d源数据更正是否已体现在AAM图像中；未复算原始轨迹、仪器量化、模型或代码。12h光稳定是否导致恢复及其幅度未知，不作猜测。", "next_action": "设计同批封装器件对照：一组复现每100h老化后12h光稳定/测J–V，另一组用低扰动测量连续记录并明确温度、N2、反偏与光照时序；比较有无光稳定的保持率差异。同时记录实际ADC/DAC位数、量程、滤波和原始数字码，检验Note10的量化解释能否预测平台步长。先以完整VoR核对上述Methods，勿将AAM默认视为终稿。", "actual_access_level": "Oxford公开CC BY accepted manuscript完整下载并限定正文实读；Nature正式主文仍订阅预览；更新SI可读", "baseline_after": "Publisher SI now supplies Note10, PDF pp.13–14 (lines282–306). It attributes invariant MPP/PCE digital outputs to DAC/ADC quantization, range selection and filtering. The note presents a general measurement explanation; it does not itself independently verify the stability trace or provide an instrument-specific quantization audit. Main text remains restricted; Oxford AAM record exists but download route remains403.", "frontier_impact": "new_primary_main_text_access_and_protocol_scope_refinement; no_scientific_resolution", "newer_version_or_correction": "新可访问的是既有2026-07-29仓储接受稿，不是新发表/更正；正式页仍显示2026-06-25源数据与2026-08-12 Note10两次已知更新。", "processing_status": "completed", "subgap_updates": [ { "target": "合法匹配主文/接受稿", "old": "unread", "new": "resolved_for_declared_AAM_passages" }, { "target": "新版Note10", "old": "read_in_v05", "new": "reread_confirmed" }, { "target": "AAM-to-VoR reconciliation", "old": "incomplete", "new": "incomplete" }, { "target": "raw traces/instrument/code validation", "old": "not_performed", "new": "not_performed" } ], "file_verification": { "bytes": 20649080, "pages": 29, "sha256": "96c1b4f18f109df2bd9bf10aa660085046b2f5d312a96a0c768903d28c061234", "pdfinfo_valid": true, "pdftotext_exit_success": true }, "code_status": "未运行作者代码、独立似然、器件模型或仪器原始数据分析；仅PDF完整性、哈希、文本提取和指定页目视核查。", "title": "反向偏压稳定性与补充注10" }, { "gap_id": "LS01-G01", "old_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "new_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "scope": "Read causal-variant underestimation preprint 10.64898/2026.09.08.750172", "actual_access_level": "官方API元数据HTTP200；官方全文的搜索索引选段；连续全文未取得", "version_verified": "API仅返回v1，实际发布2026-09-11，published=NA；DOI内09-08不是发布日期。", "supported_claims": [ "索引Results 2.1限定Whole Blood、131 kb TSS窗口、GTEx精细定位PIP>0.9；筛选后258个eGenes。不能外推全部组织、罕见变异或所有AlphaGenome任务。", "索引Methods说明使用GTEx v8与MAF≥1%的eQTL，elastic net基线在530名训练个体上拟合；非eQTL对照另用MAF≥5%。这不等同于实验确认非因果。" ], "precise_locators": [ { "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172v1.full", "locator": "§2.1首段/筛选末段；A Methods > RNA-seq and eQTL data、Elastic net baselines、Selection of non-eQTLs", "access": "publisher-indexed selected passages only" }, { "url": "https://api.biorxiv.org/details/biorxiv/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172", "locator": "collection[0].date/version/published", "access": "HTTP200 JSON" } ], "remaining_uncertainty": [ "连续Methods/Results及验证细节未读；不可称完整审阅。", "数据使用许可不等于可重新分发GTEx个体基因组；未运行代码。" ], "practical_next_research_test": "获得合法连续正文后，先核对训练/测试划分、模型折与GTEx样本独立性；再在可授权数据上预注册按距离/MAF分层的因果变异排名与负对照校准检验。", "search_attempts": [ { "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172v1.full", "result": "web open 403" }, { "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2026/09/11/2026.09.08.750172.source.xml", "result": "urllib 429；停止重试" }, { "url": "https://docpollard.org/publications/", "result": "作者实验室网页可读，未取得替代连续原文" }, { "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/search?format=json&query=DOI:10.64898/2026.09.08.750172", "result": "HTTP200 PPR1317722；inPMC/inEPMC/hasPDF均N" } ], "newer_versions_or_corrections": "API与有界检索未列出v2或正式发表关系；不保证全网不存在更新。", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change; no_independent_replication", "status_reason": "指定连续原文或补充材料尚未取得；新增索引段落单列，不将检索完成算作原文缺口解决。", "finding": "索引Results 2.1限定Whole Blood、131 kb TSS窗口、GTEx精细定位PIP>0.9；筛选后258个eGenes。不能外推全部组织、罕见变异或所有AlphaGenome任务。索引Methods说明使用GTEx v8与MAF≥1%的eQTL，elastic net基线在530名训练个体上拟合；非eQTL对照另用MAF≥5%。这不等同于实验确认非因果。", "reading_extent": [ "官方API元数据HTTP200；官方全文的搜索索引选段；连续全文未取得" ], "sources": [ { "title": "LS01-G01 §2.1首段/筛选末段；A Methods > RNA-seq and eQTL data、Elastic net baselines、Selection of non-eQTLs", "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172v1.full", "locator": "§2.1首段/筛选末段；A Methods > RNA-seq and eQTL data、Elastic net baselines、Selection of non-eQTLs", "access": "publisher-indexed selected passages only" }, { "title": "LS01-G01 collection[0].date/version/published", "url": "https://api.biorxiv.org/details/biorxiv/10.64898/2026.09.08.750172", "locator": "collection[0].date/version/published", "access": "HTTP200 JSON" } ], "remaining_gap": "连续Methods/Results及验证细节未读；不可称完整审阅。数据使用许可不等于可重新分发GTEx个体基因组；未运行代码。", "next_action": "获得合法连续正文后，先核对训练/测试划分、模型折与GTEx样本独立性；再在可授权数据上预注册按距离/MAF分层的因果变异排名与负对照校准检验。", "title": "因果变异预测低估预印本", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "NS02-G02", "old_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "new_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "scope": "Read spontaneous-activity connectomic constraints preprint 10.64898/2026.08.21.745055", "actual_access_level": "官方API元数据HTTP200；官方索引Results及Baseline and control architectures段落；未取得正文/补充Note1连续文件", "version_verified": "API仅返回v1，实际发布2026-08-25，published=NA；DOI内08-21不是发布日期。", "supported_claims": [ "索引Results说明FlyWire v783约束拓扑与符号，73个neuropil读出；每条约14分钟记录前半训练、后半测试。n=5指独立训练模型，不能当作5只果蝇。", "Baseline and control architectures说明GRU与两种MLP按参数量±5%匹配，MLP分自由线性读出和connectome固定读出；无独立validation段。完整架构指向Supplementary Note1，仍未读。" ], "precise_locators": [ { "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.21.745055v1.full", "locator": "Results首节及Fig.1；Methods > Baseline and control architectures；前一段No separate validation segment", "access": "publisher-indexed selected passages only" }, { "url": "https://api.biorxiv.org/details/biorxiv/10.64898/2026.08.21.745055", "locator": "collection[0].date/version/published", "access": "HTTP200 JSON" } ], "remaining_uncertainty": [ "参数量匹配不自动证明优化预算/生成评估公平；Supplementary Note1及补图未读。", "模型内扰动的必要/充分性不能升级为活体因果机制。" ], "practical_next_research_test": "先补齐Note1并核对GRU/MLP步进输入、评估滚动方式和预算；之后跨果蝇留一验证及保度数/符号的重连消融，最后用独立活体干预检验候选枢纽。", "search_attempts": [ { "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.21.745055v1.full", "result": "web open403" }, { "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/early/2026/08/25/2026.08.21.745055.source.xml", "result": "urllib429；停止重试" }, { "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/search?format=json&query=DOI:10.64898/2026.08.21.745055", "result": "HTTP200 PPR1306120，inPMC/inEPMC/hasPDF均N" }, { "query": "exact title + Wang; exact DOI + v2", "result": "未找到合法替代连续全文或新版" } ], "newer_versions_or_corrections": "API与有界检索只确认v1，无正式发表链接；索引Code availability仍称接受后提供专属复现代码与训练权重，不等同于已经公开。", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change; no_independent_replication", "status_reason": "指定连续原文或补充材料尚未取得；新增索引段落单列，不将检索完成算作原文缺口解决。", "finding": "索引Results说明FlyWire v783约束拓扑与符号，73个neuropil读出；每条约14分钟记录前半训练、后半测试。n=5指独立训练模型，不能当作5只果蝇。Baseline and control architectures说明GRU与两种MLP按参数量±5%匹配，MLP分自由线性读出和connectome固定读出；无独立validation段。完整架构指向Supplementary Note1，仍未读。", "reading_extent": [ "官方API元数据HTTP200；官方索引Results及Baseline and control architectures段落；未取得正文/补充Note1连续文件" ], "sources": [ { "title": "NS02-G02 Results首节及Fig.1；Methods > Baseline and control architectures；前一段No separate validation segment", "url": "https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.08.21.745055v1.full", "locator": "Results首节及Fig.1；Methods > Baseline and control architectures；前一段No separate validation segment", "access": "publisher-indexed selected passages only" }, { "title": "NS02-G02 collection[0].date/version/published", "url": "https://api.biorxiv.org/details/biorxiv/10.64898/2026.08.21.745055", "locator": "collection[0].date/version/published", "access": "HTTP200 JSON" } ], "remaining_gap": "参数量匹配不自动证明优化预算/生成评估公平；Supplementary Note1及补图未读。模型内扰动的必要/充分性不能升级为活体因果机制。", "next_action": "先补齐Note1并核对GRU/MLP步进输入、评估滚动方式和预算；之后跨果蝇留一验证及保度数/符号的重连消融，最后用独立活体干预检验候选枢纽。", "title": "连接组与自发神经活动", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "AG01-G01", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "scope": "Retrieve 2024 Science supplement and corrected author-list version", "actual_access_level": "Science原文与原SI直达失败；官方索引SI清单/更正声明可读；机构主文记录可读，非原SI", "version_verified": "Science在线2024-04-04，卷期2024-04-05；官方2024-05-14作者名单更正。", "supported_claims": [ "官方Supplementary Materials清单确认为Figs.S1–S10、TablesS1–S13、Methods与Supplementary Text；2.40MB。清单不是SI正文。", "官方2024-05-14更正补入第21作者Aidee Guzman及贡献缩写；不能推断数值/分析被更正。" ], "precise_locators": [ { "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj1914", "locator": "Supplementary Materials；Correction (14 May 2024)", "access": "publisher-indexed text" }, { "url": "https://researchprofiles.ku.dk/da/publications/joint-environmental-and-social-benefits-from-diversified-agricult/", "locator": "Adgang til dokumentet / Accepted version", "access": "institution metadata, not SI" } ], "remaining_uncertainty": [ "S1–S13与S1–S10实际内容仍未取得。", "未重跑24研究/2655农场数据；不能新增消费者价格传导的因果结论。" ], "practical_next_research_test": "取得合法原SI后，逐表核对结果变量、样本/研究数、缺失与混合效应模型，重点S12/S13；再在已有公开数据/代码上做逐研究剔除及结果定义敏感性检验。", "search_attempts": [ { "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj1914", "result": "403" }, { "url": "https://www.science.org/action/downloadSupplement?doi=10.1126%2Fscience.adj1914&file=science.adj1914_sm.pdf", "result": "web fetch internal error；没有取得PDF" }, { "query": "\"science.adj1914_sm.pdf\"; exact title supplementary; institutional domain search", "result": "只找到主文/记录，不能替代原SI" } ], "newer_versions_or_corrections": "本轮未找到晚于2024-05-14的新更正；WSU索引另有Corrected17April2024标签，未审该差异，不据此覆盖已核实的五月作者名单版本。", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change; no_independent_replication", "status_reason": "指定连续原文或补充材料尚未取得；新增索引段落单列，不将检索完成算作原文缺口解决。", "finding": "官方Supplementary Materials清单确认为Figs.S1–S10、TablesS1–S13、Methods与Supplementary Text；2.40MB。清单不是SI正文。官方2024-05-14更正补入第21作者Aidee Guzman及贡献缩写；不能推断数值/分析被更正。", "reading_extent": [ "Science原文与原SI直达失败；官方索引SI清单/更正声明可读；机构主文记录可读，非原SI" ], "sources": [ { "title": "AG01-G01 Supplementary Materials；Correction (14 May 2024)", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adj1914", "locator": "Supplementary Materials；Correction (14 May 2024)", "access": "publisher-indexed text" }, { "title": "AG01-G01 Adgang til dokumentet / Accepted version", "url": "https://researchprofiles.ku.dk/da/publications/joint-environmental-and-social-benefits-from-diversified-agricult/", "locator": "Adgang til dokumentet / Accepted version", "access": "institution metadata, not SI" } ], "remaining_gap": "S1–S13与S1–S10实际内容仍未取得。未重跑24研究/2655农场数据；不能新增消费者价格传导的因果结论。", "next_action": "取得合法原SI后，逐表核对结果变量、样本/研究数、缺失与混合效应模型，重点S12/S13；再在已有公开数据/代码上做逐研究剔除及结果定义敏感性检验。", "title": "农业多样化补充材料", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "LS04-G01", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "as_of": "2026-10-14", "scope": "Read original lecanemab trial NEJMoa2212948 relevant efficacy and harms passages", "actual_access_level": "原NEJM与许可机构PDF直达403；官方索引Safety及Table3逐行文本可读；仍未取得连续13页全文", "version_verified": "NEJM388:9–21(2023)，卷期2023-01-05，在线2022-11-29。", "supported_claims": [ "官方索引Table3安全性人群898/897：严重不良事件126/101，停药62/26；ARIA-E113/15，症状性ARIA-E25/0；比例分别14.0%/11.3%、6.9%/2.9%、12.6%/1.7%、2.8%/0%。", "脚注注明ARIA经MRI中央复核，包含双盲干预期后的事件；症状性ARIA-H并发ARIA-E计入ARIA-E。不能把不同不良事件类别简单相加。" ], "precise_locators": [ { "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "locator": "Safety；Table3 Overall、ARIA-E、Symptomatic ARIA-E行", "access": "publisher-indexed table text, not rendered PDF" }, { "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block", "locator": "Table3脚注及其后Safety段落", "access": "publisher-indexed text" }, { "url": "https://digitalcommons.wustl.edu/oa_4/2191/", "locator": "出版/许可转载记录", "access": "institution metadata" } ], "remaining_uncertainty": [ "连续Methods/Results全文、表格视觉核对、原Supplementary Appendix与protocol仍缺；资料缺口继续partial。", "18个月组均值差异不等于个体获益或长期治愈；旧试验没有相关死亡不能外推以后无致死风险。" ], "practical_next_research_test": "取得连续原文后复核ITT/mITT、缺失值敏感性和表3脚注；分别列示核心随机期与开放延长期的人时、ARIA及出血，按APOE和抗凝/溶栓预先分层，避免混合分母。", "search_attempts": [ { "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "result": "403" }, { "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "result": "direct open失败；search索引提供Safety/Table3" }, { "url": "https://digitalcommons.wustl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3197&context=oa_4", "result": "urllib403" }, { "query": "NEJMoa2212948 pdf site:edu; NEJM correction/erratum", "result": "未取得连续原文或原NEJM更正通知" } ], "newer_versions_or_corrections": "发现2024安全性延长随访及其更正，属于另一篇论文，不能代替原NEJM全文：10.1186/s13195-024-01441-8及10.1186/s13195-024-01507-7。前者摘要报告OLE九例死亡、四例被认为可能与治疗有关；后者将Table2 ApoE携带者复发ARIA-E由11.7%更正为3.8%，并修订其他标注。", "frontier_impact": "no_frontier_change; no_independent_replication", "status_reason": "指定连续原文或补充材料尚未取得；新增索引段落单列，不将检索完成算作原文缺口解决。", "finding": "官方索引Table3以下数字顺序均为lecanemab/安慰剂。安全性人群898/897：严重不良事件126/101，停药62/26；ARIA-E113/15，症状性ARIA-E25/0；比例分别14.0%/11.3%、6.9%/2.9%、12.6%/1.7%、2.8%/0%。脚注注明ARIA经MRI中央复核，包含双盲干预期后的事件；症状性ARIA-H并发ARIA-E计入ARIA-E。不能把不同不良事件类别简单相加。 另有2024年5月10日延长随访及7月10日更正：其ApoE携带者复发ARIA-E由11.7%改为3.8%。这是另一篇后续论文的更正，不是2023年NEJM原试验更正。", "reading_extent": [ "原NEJM与许可机构PDF直达403；官方索引Safety及Table3逐行文本可读；仍未取得连续13页全文" ], "sources": [ { "title": "LS04-G01 Safety；Table3 Overall、ARIA-E、Symptomatic ARIA-E行", "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/abs/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948", "locator": "Safety；Table3 Overall、ARIA-E、Symptomatic ARIA-E行", "access": "publisher-indexed table text, not rendered PDF" }, { "title": "LS04-G01 Table3脚注及其后Safety段落", "url": "https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2212948?trk=article-ssr-frontend-pulse_little-text-block", "locator": "Table3脚注及其后Safety段落", "access": "publisher-indexed text" }, { "title": "LS04-G01 出版/许可转载记录", "url": "https://digitalcommons.wustl.edu/oa_4/2191/", "locator": "出版/许可转载记录", "access": "institution metadata" }, { "title": "Updated safety results (2024-05-10)", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13195-024-01441-8", "locator": "Abstract, Results", "access": "publisher full HTML available; abstract scoped read" }, { "title": "Correction (2024-07-10)", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s13195-024-01507-7", "locator": "Correction bullet list, Table2/5 and Supplementary TableS4", "access": "publisher HTML correction statement read" } ], "remaining_gap": "连续Methods/Results全文、表格视觉核对、原Supplementary Appendix与protocol仍缺；资料缺口继续partial。18个月组均值差异不等于个体获益或长期治愈；旧试验没有相关死亡不能外推以后无致死风险。", "next_action": "取得连续原文后复核ITT/mITT、缺失值敏感性和表3脚注；分别列示核心随机期与开放延长期的人时、ARIA及出血，按APOE和抗凝/溶栓预先分层，避免混合分母。", "title": "lecanemab原随机试验", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "AR01-G01", "card_id": "AR01", "old_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "new_status": "unresolved_after_bounded_search", "finding": "出版社页面仍仅提供开头，随后为登录/购买入口；PDF路径返回HTML而非PDF。未取得35–45页连续全文，不能把局部文字当作完整论证。作者机构CV再次确认2002年与页码。", "reading_extent": [ "NLR标题、DOI、开头至Moretti假说段及订阅截断；Pittsburgh作者CV书目" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Anglo-Globalism?", "url": "https://newleftreview.org/issues/ii16/articles/jonathan-arac-anglo-globalism", "locator": "开头段落；理论/批评定义；Moretti问题框架；登录截断", "access": "partial_public_HTML", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "NLR16, July–August2002,35–45;10.64590/gfr" }, { "title": "Jonathan Arac CV", "url": "https://www.english.pitt.edu/sites/default/files/jarac_cv.pdf", "locator": "ESSAYS, Anglo-Globalism条目", "access": "indexed_institutional_CV", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null } ], "remaining_gap": "仍缺合法连续全文；本轮未找到新作者/机构公开副本。", "next_action": "先取得授权连续原文，制作论证—例证—反例图并由比较文学研究者复核。另设双语原文与英语转述的对照阅读，检验特定解释损失；这种经验检验只触及具体机制，不裁决Arac的全部人文规范判断。", "conclusion_impact": "no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "先取得授权连续原文，制作论证—例证—反例图并由比较文学研究者复核。另设双语原文与英语转述的对照阅读，检验特定解释损失；这种经验检验只触及具体机制，不裁决Arac的全部人文规范判断。", "new_material": [], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "AR01-S1", "AR01-L1", "AR01-L2", "AR01-Q1" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "Arac 2002原始评论", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "ES02-G01", "card_id": "ES02", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "finding": "正式v2补充文件仍403。新取得乌得勒支官方仓储11页主文，但页边明示2024年2月13日下载，早于2月23日更新；不能用它认证后来更正。Europe PMC XML仍未提供可认证的2月23日更正块。", "reading_extent": [ "乌得勒支PDF身份/下载日期/尾页；Europe PMC XML更新关键词核对；出版社原页面与指定v2路径访问测试" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course", "url": "https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/435891/sciadv.adk1189.pdf?sequence=1", "locator": "11页PDF各页下载边注；末页发表信息", "access": "200_PDF", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "下载标注2024-02-13;早于更新" }, { "title": "Science Advances corrected supplementary v2", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/suppl/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189/suppl_file/sciadv.adk1189_sm.v2.pdf", "locator": "待核S3–S5", "access": "403_no_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Europe PMC fullTextXML", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC10857529/fullTextXML", "locator": "当前XML；未检出所需更新块", "access": "200_XML", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null } ], "remaining_gap": "出版社2024-02-23更正原文及完整v2仍缺；v0.5旧SI裁切观察不算本轮重现。", "next_action": "取得v1/v2后对S3–S5逐图比较边界、轴标、图例及数值；先确定是否仅恢复裁切显示，再评价是否改变原主张。之后在同一强迫方案/同一终点上复算预警指标，不把准平衡结果推广到任意快速气候轨迹。", "conclusion_impact": "no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "取得v1/v2后对S3–S5逐图比较边界、轴标、图例及数值；先确定是否仅恢复裁切显示，再评价是否改变原主张。之后在同一强迫方案/同一终点上复算预警指标，不把准平衡结果推广到任意快速气候轨迹。", "new_material": [ "乌得勒支存档主文此次可下载，版本早于更正；SHA256 6a60ae7bec6421ce8a10bb47806c7390c84987cb496edb3742cceb3fb95ee2eb" ], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "ES02-S1", "ES02-C1", "ES02-C2" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "AMOC论文更正内容", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "HU02-G01", "card_id": "HU02", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "finding": "新恢复UJI官方仓储27页稿件，题名仍为early origin，带审稿用途标记、SA1–SA8与旧补充编号，不能认作2023最终排版。稿件Results报告8120 BP（6740–9610，95%后验可信区间（HPD）），此处BP以2000 CE为现在；先验中位5815 BP与后验8120 BP分开。它补到早期论证，不关闭正式主文/SI缺口。", "reading_extent": [ "稿件p.1题名；p.3摘要及版本用途标记；pp.5–6模型/根龄/先验；pp.7–10 Validation and Robustness Analyses；p.25 Fig.4图注；p.5已目视核验；作者支持页§§3,7,9" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Language trees with sampled ancestors support an early origin of the Indo-European languages", "url": "https://repositori.uji.es/bitstreams/4f2daaa2-73b3-4a55-b42b-f3399d6d1017/download", "locator": "27页稿件pp.5–6,7–10,25；与正式版版本身份未确立", "access": "200_PDF", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "题名/审稿标记表明非最终排版；确切稿次未定" }, { "title": "Author support page", "url": "https://paulheggarty.info/indoeuropean/", "locator": "§3两种补充文本区分；§9校准、借词、拓扑、直接祖先敏感性检验对应位置", "access": "public_author_page", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "IE-CoR official free link", "url": "https://iecor.clld.org/", "locator": "首页出版商许可链接及SI链接", "access": "public_links;linked_Science_routes_403", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Science original and SI", "url": "https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abg0818", "locator": "正式主文；science.abg0818_sm.pdf", "access": "403_no_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Max Planck metadata", "url": "https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_3522769", "locator": "files:gea0087.pdf visibility PRIVATE", "access": "public_metadata_only_private_file_not_fetched", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null } ], "remaining_gap": "仍缺2023正式主文与约100页原SI，无法完成稿件→正式版对照；未独立复算或逐词专家裁定。", "next_action": "先把正式主文、SI、M3输入/输出锁定为同一版本；再做prior-only与posterior比较、去掉Vedic/Avestan校准、借词编码替代、拓扑与直接祖先约束的交叉敏感性检验。检验根龄分布/支系支持而不只比较中位数；古DNA祖源时间和语言分化时间必须分列。", "conclusion_impact": "source_version_refinement;no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "先把正式主文、SI、M3输入/输出锁定为同一版本；再做prior-only与posterior比较、去掉Vedic/Avestan校准、借词编码替代、拓扑与直接祖先约束的交叉敏感性检验。检验根龄分布/支系支持而不只比较中位数；古DNA祖源时间和语言分化时间必须分列。", "new_material": [ "新恢复869939字节/27页官方仓储稿；SHA256 05d59d429e9abd53b49663654bcf5db63b7efe27c454b93953fc89ca61994de7" ], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "HU02-S1", "HU02-S2", "HU02-C1", "HU02-C2", "HU02-L1", "HU02-L2", "HU02-Q1" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "印欧语言研究正文与年代", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "HU02-G02", "card_id": "HU02", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "finding": "出版社当前摘要仍435，单位更正仍只补Viktor Trifonov第二单位。机构PDF仍为旧单位布局；PMC作者稿摘要428、正文367+68的分歧仍在。出版社.pdf端点返回HTML预览，完整更正后排版未恢复；不能把428→435解释为单位更正。", "reading_extent": [ "当前出版社摘要、更新标记、订阅预览；更正实质段及单位61；Reich PDF p.1摘要/作者单位和p.2人数；PMC XML摘要及Introduction" ], "sources": [ { "title": "The genetic origin of the Indo-Europeans", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08531-5", "locator": "摘要435；订阅预览；单位61", "access": "public_abstract_not_complete_main", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "Nature639,132–142,2025" }, { "title": "Author Correction", "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08789-3", "locator": "唯一更正实质段；Viktor Trifonov单位61", "access": "public_correction", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "2025-02-20" }, { "title": "Reich laboratory paper", "url": "https://reich.hms.harvard.edu/sites/reich.hms.harvard.edu/files/inline-files/2025_LazaridisPattersonAnthonyVyazov_IndoEuropean_Nature_0.pdf", "locator": "pp.1–2；Trifonov仅单位60", "access": "200_PDF", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "早期排版，非修正单位布局" }, { "title": "PMC author manuscript XML", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC11922553/fullTextXML", "locator": "abstract428；Introduction367新增+68提高质量", "access": "200_XML", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "作者稿非最终排版" } ], "remaining_gap": "完整更正后PDF/主文未得；428差异原因未定，不能以加法或单位更正替代解释。", "next_action": "先取得完整修订版并逐一比对样本编号、排除条件和重复个体，再用同一入组清单检查435。独立复算祖源模型时锁定人群/外群与不确定性；语言身份推断另外列出所需考古/语言学假设。", "conclusion_impact": "no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "先取得完整修订版并逐一比对样本编号、排除条件和重复个体，再用同一入组清单检查435。独立复算祖源模型时锁定人群/外群与不确定性；语言身份推断另外列出所需考古/语言学假设。", "new_material": [], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "HU02-S3", "HU02-C3", "HU02-L3", "HU02-C5", "HU02-Q1" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "古DNA研究单位更正", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" }, { "gap_id": "SS03-G01", "card_id": "SS03", "old_status": "partial", "new_status": "partial", "finding": "重新直接读到出版社2021更正，确认线性/逻辑回归代码错误、过期图数据及R包版本修订。新发现更正DOI自己的12.31MB附件路径，区别于原论文附件，但获取仍403。Europe PMC更正附件API返回非开放获取错误；原论文SI包本轮超时，未声称再次取到旧文件。", "reading_extent": [ "PNAS更正全实质段、Fig.3图注、S15/S18替换文字及Supporting Information链接；新附件访问结果" ], "sources": [ { "title": "Correction for Salganik et al.", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2118703118", "locator": "更正首段；S15第三整段第8–9行；S18第三整段第2–3行；更新图列表及Supporting Information", "access": "publisher_HTML_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": "2021-12-02 online;2021-12-14 issue" }, { "title": "Correction-associated Appendix01", "url": "https://www.pnas.org/doi/suppl/10.1073/pnas.2118703118/suppl_file/pnas.2118703118.sapp.pdf", "locator": "12.31MB下载链接；目标S6–S9/S17–S18及S15/S18", "access": "web_cache_miss;direct_403_no_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Europe PMC correction supplementary endpoint", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC8685898/supplementaryFiles", "locator": "API错误内容，非附件", "access": "200_error_XML_not_open_access", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null }, { "title": "Original-paper SI package", "url": "https://www.ebi.ac.uk/europepmc/webservices/rest/PMC7165437/supplementaryFiles", "locator": "本轮请求超时；v0.5旧副本结论仅继承", "access": "timeout_no_new_read", "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "version": null } ], "remaining_gap": "未取得匹配3倍/95%文字、正确图S6–S9/S17–S18及R包版本的SI。作者称结论不变，不等于本轮独立验证。", "next_action": "优先获取更正DOI所挂附件，验收S15=3倍、S18=95%及六张图；之后冻结数据/软件，比较修正二元逻辑基准与旧线性基准，复算holdout R²、误差区间及模型相对优势。只评价该队列/预测任务，不推导人生普遍不可预测。", "conclusion_impact": "version_route_refinement;no_frontier_change", "meaningful_next_research_test": "优先获取更正DOI所挂附件，验收S15=3倍、S18=95%及六张图；之后冻结数据/软件，比较修正二元逻辑基准与旧线性基准，复算holdout R²、误差区间及模型相对优势。只评价该队列/预测任务，不推导人生普遍不可预测。", "new_material": [ "新识别更正DOI附件URL，但文件未取得" ], "baseline_affected_node_ids": [ "SS03-S2", "SS03-E3", "SS03-C3", "SS03-L3", "SS03-Q1" ], "checked_on": "2026-10-14", "title": "社会复杂性预测更正版补充", "assessment_date": "2026-10-14" } ] }